Hey,

Had this shove or fold spot on basically FT bubble, we were 11 left, payouts from 326$ now to 8k$ up tops. I had 3bet shoved on the vilain 4 hands ago, he 2x opened from CO and I reshoved 12ish from BTN w/ ATo, he folded that time. Then the very next hand he 3bet took it down pre vs another guy. And he just defended his BB w/ AJs on a super std re-shove spot, turned a J and won a large pot vs AK. So this would be the fourth hand out of last 5 hes VPIPing.

Vilain has recently won 6k in an mtt which is basically all of his profit. Wouldnt call him fishy, his stats were 17/16/12 total steal 50, but I would think this is a big bubble for him. Esp after seeing him not take a 19bb BB reshove w/ AJs vs a big stack BTN open.

Now this hand, he opens to 2.5x. How do we interpret it? And do we shove or fold?

fold is good

Im shoving vs most players.

A lot of the players use to have a pretty polarized range in this spot vs your stack, as they usually open shove all marginal good hands like good Ax and Kx. So when V raises here he usually has either a strong hand trying to induce a jam, or he has a really weak hand. Given that most weak value hands are open jammed, I expect his range to be unbalanced w/ much more bluffs on this spot.

Obviously I dont know about this particular player's real ranges at this spot...

you can shove pretty wide here and maybe even flat something but just let K3o go

Yeah.. just fold may be good, but if V is playing the range I pointed it is certainly a very profitable shove, especially w/ a K blocker to some of his r/c range.

It is pretty bad if I misread his range btw, which is what happened now that I saw the spoiler. For that range I constructed I'd guess V is open shoving A7 to avoid gii vs this kind of mediocre hand he is not so much ahead.

I am not sure he even had a plan for this, cause it took him some 10 seconds to call, and I was really surprised he showed up with a hand he was kind of expected him to shove pre. But then why 2.5x insted of a 2x why was his standard? Should we be making any adjustments or assumptions about this open sizing?

because he's in sb so he should make it bigger?

Fold looks good

Flop time.

Do you think it flops well enough for us to defend with <16bbs vs a 2.5x? I'm all up for defending something like K8 but I don't think K3o works