Not sure if this is the right forum, not a regular tourney player.

$150 double green chip bounty tourney. 7 players left (from 23), blinds 1k/2k ante 100.

V2 has about 80k, and hero has about the same, not sure who covers who. probably 2nd and 3rd largest stacks. V2 is 40s or 50s asian, very competent, pretty clearly an extremely experienced tournament player. Had a hand earlier where 2 players went all in for about 5 BBs and he called with 82o and won, which showed awareness of the huge value of the bounties, and general understanding of the game. I would expect him to play somewhat predictably solid, in the sense that i would expect his preflop range to dynamically adjust to the situation, but wouldnt expect him to like...limp aces or whatever. He also takes a lot of stabs at pots, id say he normally will make a bet and then give up, and use position to his advantage.

I would expect he thinks I am good and know what I am doing wrt poker in general, but im sure its obvious i have no earthly idea what im doing in a tourney. I showed down K9s to stack someone his first hand at my table and I think I havent played a single hand since then (was completely card dead), so he probably thinks im tight i suppose.

V1 limps
V2 (about 80k stack) limps from the button
hero checks from BB with T7s

Flop AT4r (6700)

hero checks, v1 checks, v2 bets 5k. hero calls, V1 folds.

turn K (16,700)

hero checks, v2 checks.

river Q

hero checks, V2 thinks and bets 15,000


So here are my thoughts...

I think he is stabbing at this pot with nearly ATC on the flop, but that also includes hands that actually hit.

I think its very unlikely V2 limps Ax or 2 high cards like KJ, i would expect him to raise those hands from the button. I would expect a SC type hand much more often. I could maybe see him limping a weaker king or Q like K9 Q9 QT, but not sure he would limp that either. Even if he had limped Ax there is just no way he checks on that turn and gives a free card to all the rando Q or Js, not to mention even A2 has a solid chance to chop with a better ace, so chance of an A: near 0%

K seems unlikely as well. I expect he bluffed the flop, but if he hit second pair and checked back, id expect he wants a cheap showdown, why would he decide that instead of getting a cheap showdown, he will turn his made hand into a bluff? (or try to get value from 4th pair? i dont think so), so id day chance of a K: near 0%

Q is possible, he bluffs the flop, then picks up a gutshot planning to bluff a river, and then decides 3rd pair isnt enough and bluffs it, but i think most likely he would be happy to have hit his Q and check it back, so id say chance of a Q: very low.

J is of course what he is repping, and sure, he couldve checked back turn with a gutshot and then hit the card and bet. Here is why i dont think he had it: he paused before betting. Who needs to think about whether or not to bet the nuts? I dont think he was deciding bet sizing, because 15k was 3 chips, and didnt seem to have been much thought, since he is a regular tournament guy, I think he has the bet sizing down. The pause wasnt long enough for a showboating pause either, just a short thinking pause, and then a bet.

So basically bottom line here, I certainly think he could have a J, but I think im facing his entire range J or lower, which means im easily good here more than 33% of the time. However unlike in cash games i need to decide how this affects my stack, which is a whole different concept I dont know anything about, but basically it would mean if I am wrong, I would no longer be in a position to be able to take stacks from several people, so this call could end up costing me $50 in bounty chips when i cripple them rather than kill them.

wtl;dr

No problem for me with the extra detail; thanks for painting the whole picture. We've got more to work with in live tournaments, which makes up for their excruciatingly slow pace. Might as well take it all in.

I'd analyze the hand from the other direction, asking how likely he is to have made it to the river with something you beat. You beat small PPs if he chose to limp those preflop, plus a handful of connectors like 98 that he might think are tempting to play, cheaply from the button. Unlikely that he chose to limp 99 or 88 from the button.

Then factor in all the possible hands that might have you beat. Easy to agree he doesn't have an Ace. Not sure I agree with you about crossing off K or Q, but your take on his river timing/sizing actually not being consistent with a J is interesting and important.

Yeah, if you're confident he doesn't have a Jack, this is at least a borderline call. You still come away with two-thirds of your stack if you're wrong, so the tournament/v/cash dynamics are not totally hellish yet.

I'm assuming you posted because it worked out. If so, nice call. If not, still interesting.

cicakman we cant all reach 9k posts with the type of succient enlightening content you provided here.

results were I folded after a lot of thought. and especially because i was concerned getting shorter stacked could cost me bounty chips, but I know for a fact I wouldve called in a cash game. I wouldve called with an A, K, or Q as well, because although I think the odds of him having a K/Q/T effectively turning into a river bluff are low, the odds were enough that it wouldve changed my marginal decision.

I also was thinking of what he would put me on. I most likely wouldve raised with Ax as well (although he couldnt necessarily know that since he hadnt seen me raise a single hand during the tournament), so he MUST put me on Tx,which means the river is such an obvious bluff for him.

After the tourney was over he asked me what I had, and I told him, and he was shocked i was considering a call, and said he had 97s.