Hi guys, I'm a Hu hyper and Spin's reg and I played this hand yesterday in Pokerstar.es.

This is a 50€ 2R1A satellite for Espt Barcelona. I was 3rd in chips, 16 left. There were 3 entries in play plus 300€ for expenses and 250€ and 36€ for the 4th-5th respectively.

I think that player was a reg, some hands before he also 3bet me in a similar situation and he folded to the 4bet.

I have to say I was multi-tabling and I had a little time bank. My thought process was:

Preflop: I was holding AT of spades, I min raise and I think giving the odds I have to call preflop. I suppose he has a polarize range and more in this case.

Flop: He bets around 40% the pot, I call because I'm ahead vs all his bluffing range and I also have the backdoor nut flushdraw.

Turn: I thought in leading turn a little big commiting me in the pot, but finally I check-call (I think is the best play)

River: I reckon is one of the best cards for calling because all or most of his draws has missed. I suppose he can have AA KK QQ and JJ for value, ie, 18 combos , but he can have less combos because there are short stacks and we are deep, so he can be calling with some premiums hands. I think at least he has 98cs T9c KQsc A4sc A5c= 8 combos. But he can also have Akc A2c A3c that beats me, plus a lot of random hands that I beat like QTs the other gutshots without flushdraw like T9hd 98hd. I had to be right more than 25% of the times, so I decided to call giving that odds.

What do u think about my play and thought process in each street? If I'm wrong, in which one and why?

Many thanks.

I don't like your approach of poker for tournament play. This is too high variance imo. Even if each individual call might be +EV the sum of it leads to a huge question mark in the end.
Prob just giving this up on flop OOP vs regs.
Might 4b pre.

As I know, if It's Ev+ each individual call, that play is Ev+ if there isn't any ICM condition. It could be better fold the flop, idk. But I don't like 4beting this hand. There are better hands to do it and I think It's a clear call.

I'm all for fighting for pots, but this is ridculously ambitious. What worse hands do we have here?

Agree with @gregz41, pretty ambitious call, esp on .es (I also play there)
Before I even looked to the spoiler, I was gonna say, you can't even beat his bluffs AQ,AK.

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My question is where I should have fold?

and why? Thanks

Flop is probably the closest street. River is a clear fold. It looks to me, that your river X/c range is too close to your turn X/c range.

It could be, but the problem in the river is the odds I need to be right and It looks I could call imo if u count the combos. Of course, If I know he is 3barreling this kind of hands I'm folding, but in theory he should do it only with the Ak of clubs, not all the Ak.

I may fold the flop and that's all, idk

Just fold, especially the river. You don't have to be ''fancy'' borderline dumb, or yeah basicly dumb. If you are calling this hand, well then you basicly do not have a folding range. Fold the flop OOP, and if you somehow get to the turn you could/should bet 7k and shove river. But I just hate the situation and folding flop is probably the way to go.

There are spots where you can probably get away with not having a folding range, this isn't one of those spots. You basically expect him to be 3betting some sort of suited connector that decided to 3barrell. Pretty ambitious imo.

The problem is, if we call too frequently, we don't give our opponent any incentive to bluff. This is particularly problematic when trying to bluff catch.

Saying we only have to be right 25% of the time is short sighted, given the +ev of his value bets are determined by the frequency we call with worse.

Its a donk play imo.

Id be c/c flop and c/f turn

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You can´t be serious

What´s your image at the table? what does villain think you are opening EP with?

What is villains 3bet% vs EP openers?

I don´t like these x/c lines. What about bluff checkraising flop or check/(semi)bluff shoving turn? I think we either should fold flop or turn the heat on and x/r flop and if a spade hits on turn (as it does) we can shove and put him to the test.
[i would consider these lines in a standard mtt; in satty a fold on F or pre might be the better option]

But since it is a satty, I think it has it´s own dynamic and we should play it differently, compared to a normal mtt. You are in great shape w/ 48 BB. No need to put yourself in a tough and high variance position [FPS].

Yup, it seems ambitious throughout, and you don't beat the bluffs. If you really think he's full of ****, then jam turn over his raise - at least you have some outs if he calls.

I actually think the call here is ok against most opponents. Against a relatively standard CO 3-bet range we're not that far from a flip and may be ahead against a LAG's range. Against a nit this is probably a shrug-fold.

The problem is that you're out of position which isn't ideal.

On this board, there are two bluff lines you can take.

1. You check the flop with the intention of raising the c-bet. This is the play to make if you want to try to take the pot down right away, and I'd maybe think about it if I didn't have any backdoor draws at all. (i.e., no backdoor flushes, straights, no overs to the board, nothing that could make my hand better).

2. You check-call the flop with the intention of betting big (probably pot size) on the turn if a spade or overcard (especially an A) hits, which I think I'd do. Because I have a flush draw and an over to the board, this is a not a terrible spot to run this bluff. If the spade hits and he jams I call, if the overcard hits and he jams it's tougher but may be a fold because I'd still have a reasonable stack left. I'd probably call with the A because a LAG might be willing to jam with a club draw and a weaker ace. If I hit a blank I prob fold because there's really not a lot I can represent.

I think the other thing to note is that if you encounter this spot while multi-tabling, especially with a decent stack behind in a satellite, I would be perfectly fine with folding pre and waiting for better spots. I'd rather conserve my time bank for big decisions where I really need to work through scenarios rather than burn it on deciding whether to call 3-bet pf in a somewhat marginal spot.

Catching up on my forum reading, I like this hand and the discussion.
OP, your approach is very rationalized and you probably have more experience in assigning ranges than me, but this is where I don't follow:
You argue your river call by assigning villain with a betting range containing 25% of bluffs (well, bluffs worse than your hand, as he did beat you with a bluff...). But you don't support that with assigning ranges pre-, flop and turn. I don't get that. Any player can always say "well, I think he has more than 25% of bluffs here", but there needs to be a reasoning behind that. Just saying, "there is probably QTs or stuff like that in his range" seems strange to me. Sure, a lot of draws missed in your range as well as his. But really, how often will villain continue, how many draws does he really have compared to value hands after 3-betting pre and betting 3 streets. I think you need to assign preflop ranges, flop ranges, turn ranges and river ranges here.
You may have made the calculations intuitively, but you don't pan them out in your post and if I had to do those, I would not come to the same conclusions as you do (but I do tend to assign too nitty ranges versus some villains), especially given preflop positions and the fact that you are actually behind a lot of eventual bluffs.

Anyways, as played, what about turn all-in? If you're going to call a river bet when draws miss, you're actually ahead of a lot of villain's draws on the turn, so if he calls you with his draws, this is actually good for you. Was that your plan? But again, I would never do that, because with my range assumptions I would never call a river bet when I don't get there in this spot.

But this is where I find it interesting: I actually want to be convinced of your play and your rationale here! I just think that more input is needed!

Fold pre some obv
Call maybe w/e
Fold flop
C/jam turn jeezuz if you get here 10% of the time (sure, ok) why aren't you piling? Pull the trigger. You have the gun, the bullet and the inappropriate analogy. Rip it.
Fold river ofc

Raise fold pre. from utg vs player we have a large BF I can raise fold A10s here as its close enough to the bottom of my utg raise even 8 handed to let go. What is your r/f range here op, assuming you have one.

If you call pre I would c/f flop for sure.

On turn I would never get here but only reason I would call flop would be to float stab turn and heh bonus we just picked up some outs. So lead 1/2 pot bet.

If called and get there on river shove river for value as it came through backdoor we shouldn't have it.

If turn bet gets called probably giving up if we have wiffed. not many drawers in his range now except maybe AXc which he may of played like this.

I'd fold the turn for sure given the (lack of) information about the villian.

+1