Merge - $100.00+$10.00|<> NL - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Have 170 hands on Vill..but really don't recall ever playing with him. Earlier w 7 people left, he used same sizing from OTB, I 3bshoved KQs from SB w 13bb and he called w A8o. Im running 22/17/11 but have not been that active at the FT. He was a bit more active than stats might suggest. 6-handed he 3b a CO open from BB w a 2.8x sizing and folded to a 2b/4b shove 22bb eff.


Whats a 3b shoving range here?

Payouts

2.8k
2
1.5
1.1
.8

BB: 112,428 (VPIP: 23.22, PFR: 19.48, 3Bet Preflop: 7.46, Hands: 1,640)
UTG: 91,672 (VPIP: 22.01, PFR: 11.10, 3Bet Preflop: 3.85, Hands: 5,236)
CO: 195,033 (VPIP: 26.59, PFR: 23.27, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 175)
Hero (BTN): 76,766
SB: 189,101 (VPIP: 16.25, PFR: 12.84, 3Bet Preflop: 7.41, Hands: 167)

5 players post ante of 500, SB posts SB 2,500, BB posts BB 5,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 10,000) Hero has A7

fold, CO raises to 12,290, Hero ?

my rough math vs reasonable ranges including 30% opening range for co shows this shove being worth btwn .7-1.2bb in cEV (i mixed up ranges for a couple diff scenarios) reality probably closer to the .7, pretty decent I'd say. I don't really think ICM going to play a huge factor with the distribution here and you being the shortest. If anything I think ICM would allow for you to shove much wider given a wide open. This is a good result for a shove I feel and I don't think calling would be better.

I'll run this thru ICMizer with proper shove and overcall ranges later tmrw night when I'm back at my comp. It's probably close tho, might just depend on your risk tolerance. Hopefully can show a full on +EV shoving range according to the model. Not sure if it takes card removal into consideration, if not the results will be a bit modest to reality.

Below looks to be the range of +EV shoves when strictly considering push fold. Obv we have sb responding very tight when you fold and when you shove, and bb reacting reasonably but still tight and opener calling you with 8% of starting hands 66+ ATs+. These parameters seem fairly close to reality so I think the results the model is showing are probably close. There may be some factors that can make some of these -EV shoves +EV. This hand apparently lies in the fringe. The wider sb or bb call off vs your shove, the worse A7s is. So I think two things would factor in my decision if I were to gamble here, one would be is co opening wider than he should be and second is are blinds unlikely to stack off lighter than 99+AK+. If those two things hold true, I think shoving this is better than folding it.

If he is competent player, I think his sizing to 2.5 bb is bad into 15 bb stack.

If he is not good player, I think this sizing decreases our fold equity.

22+/Ax/K9s+/JTo+/J8s+
ish
Unless he knows that you jam this wide and calls correctly. Folding a pair seems wrong as shortest stack.

Thx for running this squint..I also originally ran the sim in hrc, and got a slightly+$ev push vs a 27% OR. I think what complicates this, esp in this sample bi/mtt, is gauging how often/far randoms deviate from optimal calling ranges, which really crushes our perceived $ev