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Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar]

01-22-2016 , 10:54 PM
Hi,

Deep in the $27 prog ko.

OR (17/16) 47 hands. No specific notes.

BTN flat, (14/13) over 20 hands, looks on the nittier side, but could just be due to his card distribution. Sharkscope/Pokerprolabs does not look stunning.



Poker Stars, $24.55 Buy-in (3,500/7,000 blinds, 875 ante)
No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players

Hero (SB): 147,608 (21.1 bb)
BB: 98,258 (14 bb)
UTG+2: 114,279 (16.3 bb)
MP1: 284,291 (40.6 bb)
MP2: 83,757 (12 bb)
MP3: 164,022 (23.4 bb)
CO: 112,963 (16.1 bb)
BTN: 143,270 (20.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q K
UTG+2 folds, MP1 raises to 17,500, 3 folds, BTN calls 17,500, Hero?

Spoiler:

http://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#JjKMQw
Having ICMized the situation suggests a fold, also my bounty was (only) $74, should not ridicilessly decrease my fold equity. Thoughts?


Although BTN seems nitty, given his results I feel he can still have some broadways here which could scew the result.

Preferred gii range? Wait for a better spot?
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-23-2016 , 01:05 AM
I would jam with random OTB and samplesizes are tiny.
Yet I would call b4 folding.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-23-2016 , 02:35 AM
snap fold and look for a better spot. Calling OOP is just not good and 21bbs with 2 in the hand already is not a good shove spot.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-23-2016 , 04:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by onehandatatime
snap fold and look for a better spot. Calling OOP is just not good and 21bbs with 2 in the hand already is not a good shove spot.
+1
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-23-2016 , 03:43 PM
Looks like a jam but calling is 2nd best.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-23-2016 , 08:41 PM
Think folding is best here, much better spots than this. Were only getting called by better and are 40% at best. Dont see this getting through often enough and playing oop in a 8bb pot with 18bb 2.2 stack pot ratio isnt the best spot to be. Shove or fold, I think this is a fold.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-23-2016 , 09:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by furo
Looks like a jam but calling is 2nd best.


If so what range would you jsm? (ICMIZER jams range doesnt seem to add up) - any adjustments you make based on my info (I.e. include a -bunch- more of AT/broadways in flatters range?
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-24-2016 , 12:23 AM
easiest jam in the world, wtf
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-24-2016 , 09:52 AM
Yeah call has to be better than fold.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-24-2016 , 10:30 AM
I dont see myself folding here, ever.
We are getting great odds and postflop is the easiest for us,
if We hit top pair, We just gii.

3b gii is +EV here also, but I would preffer just call, would not like to risk
whole stack on that spot preflop.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-25-2016 , 06:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by robwa
If so what range would you jsm? (ICMIZER jams range doesnt seem to add up) - any adjustments you make based on my info (I.e. include a -bunch- more of AT/broadways in flatters range?
This is the worst hand I would jam. With some reads flatting seems better.for example knowing how often the first flatter might have better Qx or Kx or postflop tendencies on both. With an aggro image jamming also is worse than calling.
Icmizer is a nice tool but I like to play without it. You play too scared if you follow it 100% and pass up alot of decent spots (like this one). Calling seems perfectly fine I just think jamming is better unless we have more reads and folding is not super bad, like wtf no one folds there bad, but too nitty for my style.
I just like to have more than 20BB to have more spots available to chip up with less risk.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote
01-29-2016 , 10:47 PM
jam prolly best but in game I press the call button.
Final 20  PROG KO [30k guar] Quote

      
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