Yesterday a friend of mine told me about at attempt to resteal from a bad lag - I hate the play he made, and below is the message I sent him with my feelings about the play - I'm posting here for further comments and to see how you here may feel about my analysis.

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Hey J,

I just wanted to drop a note regarding a play you made that you told be about yesterday, and I didn't like it at the time, but wanted to consider it before replying - the more I think about it, the less I like it.

The play, as you described it, was:

You were OTB, and a bad LAG was in the CO. folds to the LAG who opens for 3K, and you "pretend" to look at your cards and then 3 bet to 9K (blind), folds back to him and he shoves - you 3 bet blind and you find you only have 53 and fold - you fold and he shows JT.


I hate this play here J, and here's why:

1) It's pure spew. Bad lags gamble, and they LIKE to get it all in - think about this from the LAG's point of view: He raised, partly to steal, but also because he likes his hand to some degree. You re-pop it, and this is his chance to reshove, and he loves to do that. Even if you call, he'll figure to be at worst a 2 to 1 dog with two live cards in most cases - he believes in HIS mind that if you had a REAL hand that you'd flat and then get jiggy on the flop, or you'd SHOVE. He does not believe you'll repop him with a super strong hand, so he's happy to play back. He's thinking that if you had AA-TT that you 3 bet SHOVE, or smooth call.

2) Your only real FE here is if you SHOVE. And that is spewey too, since he's not folding any strong ace nor any pair, like ever.

3) As such, if you are going to do a 3 bet NON shove resteal, you HAVE to have a hand that you are happy to get ALL IN with, no matter what. Your 3 bet/fold here is practically criminal.

4) How well do you play post flop? I think your post flop game (that I have seen) is strong. If your post flop game is strong then you WANT TO SEE A LOT OF FLOPS. Any preflop moves you make are denying your post flop skill. Making big moves preflop is for people that can't play post flop well, OR that are at a stack size of 5 M or less that don't have a stack that can play PF.

5) As I recall, you had more than an M of 20 here? So, that means you have 3 plays: Call, shove or fold. And you can't make a play here blind against this guy. Given your hand, fold is best of course.

6) You will get the best value from this particular opponent by seeing flops with him and outplaying him THEN - by outplay, I mean that you need to under-rep your very strong hands so that he overplays his hands into you, and if you are going to throw an airball, you have to do a full three barrels at him, and keep in mind that he'll call down A high here a lot, even as weak as AQ on a JT high board, and any flopped pair if he senses the flop missed you. If you want to play air against this guy, you need to tell a really compelling story, with a beginning, middle, and end.

7) Yes there are spots to play back at this guy - but those spots are almost always post flop. He's way too much of a loose cannon pre flop. If you playback pre you have to have a strong enough holding, and be willing to risk your entire tournament life on what you hold, as in most cases you'll get it in as no more than a 2 to 1 favorite at best, and badly dominated in some cases.

8) IMO all-in for most of your stack as a 2 to 1 favorite or a flip when your M is above 7 is TERRIBLE. When your M is 7 or higher IMO you need to avoid AI unless you are confident you are 3 to 1 favorite or better (or up against a much smaller stack).


Anyway those are my thoughts,

Cheers

A

need stack sizes to evaluate.

Sorry I didn't include that.

Effective stacks 47,000 with blinds at 300/600 and 75 ante.

Hero has tight image (has not 3 bet PF for hours) aggressor popped it in CO to 3K, and hero OTB then 3 bet to 9200.

just fold the first time to the 5x, play straightforward vs these guys and let them hang themselves.

light 3bets are part of the game - but not with 53o...
3/bet folding 80BB deep is fine.
poker is played pre-flop and post-flop. suggesting that you ALWAYS play post-flop vv these guys is insane.
waiting for a 3/1 edge with M > 7 is ridiculous, any edge higher than your perceived edge over the table is sufficient. any flip+ is fine.

I usually wouldn't try to resteal anyone who makes 5x pre....

I'm not suggesting waiting for a 3-1 edge - But I am not wanting to stack off (against a villain that covers me) with less than a 2-1 edge when my M is high. OBV as the M gets lower, flips become more of a requirement.

But it does not make sense to me with an M of 20 or more to risk the entire stack on a coin flip.


Regardless, his idea was simply to bluff 3 bet - and if bluffing, then it does not matter what cards you have - I just think this is not a good bluff spot.

That's my general conclusion. I find I make more money letting them put it in my stack than playing back at them.

I'm not suggesting to never play back PF - but IMO if you are playing back you at least need a "semi bluff" hand that can be played post flop.

He should be looking at 3betting polar here to account for either scenario where he hangs himself by shoving or folds. Air, so you can just muck and get away from and nuts obviously to account for the times he shoves and you can snap his face.

But you need FE and he has none. 5X is usually a hand he likes enough to call let alone shove over a 3bet W.

i would start by looking at my cards

I'm gonna defend op's dolt friend and say not looking isn't the worst thing ever. The sizing and spot choice is a lot worse in this specific hand.

The rational for not looking:

If you are *bluffing* it does not matter what you have - by not looking, you avoid being influenced by your actual holdings.

This is not a form of play I personally am into, but keep in mind that girl that won a Stars tournament blind.

Lmao Annette is good though

yes, but did her opponents know that she was playing blind?

predetermined plays can be ok. but look at your cards and give a subtle impression you've just eye-balled AA. it's a far more effective strategy.