This is my first post in the MTT forum. I mostly play live cash games, but played online MTTSNG on a recreational basis a couple of years ago. I have basic knowledge of ICM, but one of my weaknesses is that I find it difficult to find a proper call/fold range, especially from the blinds.

Yesterday, I played a MTT on a smaller poker site (I had to convert the HH manually), with a 22+2€ buy-in. 85 entrants and 11 prices payed. Don’t remember the exact pay outs, but 10-11 place were paid 2 BI and 1st place around 20 BI.

With 13 players left, I’m in place 12 i.e. outside the money. The last two orbits, I have only been dealt the junkiest of junk hands, so I haven’t been able to jam in position. The structure is a turbo format with crazy blind levels, so at this point everyone is at or below 15BB.

Villain in SB is aggressive and will push with ATC.
UTG (42972)
MP (26006)
HJ (33084)
CO (8440)
BTN (20932)
SB (Villain) (27528)
BB (Hero) (18548)

Antes are 360
Blinds are 1800/3600

Preflop:
Hero is BB with A3
Folds to SB who jams.

It’s 14948 to call.

A3o is not a good hand. Using a standard Nash chart, this is a trivial call. But how is this affected by the bubble and what range do I need to call here?

Blinds will increase again next hand, so if I fold this I will be down to less than 3BB. I could possibly fold myself in to money for another orbit, but would essentially be left with no chips to advance. Or I could flip for it and if I win, I will be one of the chip leaders.

Any comments would be appreciated.

I think this is too good a hand to fold here, even though you're on the bubble. If you double up now you give yourself a decent shot for 1st place relative to the rest of the players.

I think the best way to estimate these is to have some idea of the ICM factor / bubble factor in play - I'm not sure my radar is always right but I would guess its about 1.5 at this point close to the bubble.

So we need to be 1.5:1 in cEV to make it profitable

I make pot odds here about 1.65:1 - so if we expect to be favourite against V's range it's a call

I think that's a pretty easy call given your read on villain. You're way ahead of his range.

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Thanks for feedback. I did call and lost the coin toss against JT. But that wasn't the issue here. I was just interested if my decision to call was too loose.

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