I would like to post about a certain situation that I seem to be losing a lot of money on lately and just would like it clarified. It involves having a re shove stack (around 13-20 BB) out the blinds vs a late pos raiser. I will post the following hand for an example:
I'm just wondering under what circumstances is this a profitable or not so profitable shove? And what range should I usually shove here? I'm starting to think this exact situation 10 Q is just a fold here against this certain player. He was playing solid tight aggressive and I had shoved on his cut off raise last round with JJ so his raising range is probably slightly tighter and his calling range more loose. So what range should I really be shoving here?
Against standard TAG players should I just be shoving these hands without thinking or is perhaps raising a better option here? Just would like opinions on this situation as it seems to be a weakness in my game lately.
Really not sure why you'd shove in the first hand. Your range for raising or shoving should be defined by villain's opening range, I don't think QTo is good enough to call or raise/shove, I'd just fold.
Also I'm not sure why you want to play a bigger pot out of position with A9o in the second hand.
Your re-shoving range obviously depends on villain's opening range and tendency to call off with weak aces, KQ and small pairs.
I'm the kind of player who will re-shove with a lot of holdings if I think the time is right.
A lot of players would not have called with KQ in your first example. Nevertheless, there were a few warning signs, that you should consider in those spots:
- Villain has a comfortable stack and could think he can afford a gamble
- You already re-shoved on this guy recently. At these stakes, your fold equity tends to diminish the second or third time around, even if it's not necessarily the right reaction.
- It is a cut-off raise, not a button raise, and you are in the SB, not in the BB. While this represents more strength, it also introduces a higher risk for you. And again, at those stakes, I'm not sure that most players will be really aware that you're repping stronger in this spot.
In the second hand, you still have more than 20BB. If you are unsure of your reads (villain's laggy-ness in this position for example), it is not a necessary shove at all.
When I worked at this part of my game I did a lot of calculations about what I felt they would call and how that affected the net gain of the play. Might help you to do the same and then you can get a good idea for developing your reahove ranges.
Second one is much closer with Ax. However, the overbet looks exactly like what you have, big cards that missed. It's also in a $2 MTT, you can pick way better spots in these.
Play some 180Ts to get a gauge of what reshoves work and what does not.