A difficult spot on the flop here, in the Big 27.50 on stars. It's very likely the villain holds Aces or AK, but it seems strange that he didn't shove pre-flop? Thoughts would be appreciated.

call, your equity is over 25% vs anyone who will take this line imo. i think you can go considerably smaller on your 4b prob around 3200 is enough and maybe gets frustated calls from some of his bluff 3b range that i doubt 4k does

gotta call with that much money in the pot

CALL! to much money in the pot and i don t think that he plays AK or KK this way..even AA he prob check the flop to let u bet..and KQ it's less likely because u have blockers..so it's a call and i think u gonna be ahead must of the time

Definitely call.

You are already committed to the pot and most of the times you should have the best hand there.

I'll take the contrary line here -- having not looked at the spoiler. Villain calls off nearly half his stack pre-flop. Not AA or he shoves 100% of the time over our 3-bet. KK is possible, but unlikely -- why shove with nuts since our line doesn't suggest many flush draws). AK and KQss makes total sense. Given that our range includes a lot of Kings as well as AA and QQ, it makes little sense for villain to open shove for his remaining 15bb with JJ or TT.

So, we can fold here and still have 40BB. Perhaps it's just that I've had so many bad experiences with Queens, but I don't think that a fold here is terrible.

[post-spoiler: OK, so I agree with what hero did. I still think it is an OK play]

ur so clueless.. this is a snapcall

nice giant 4b size

I think it's a call but at the same time I think it is most likely villain has K.

Could be doing this with any two cards if you'll fold too much, but my guess is K.

Just invested too much. I'm not folding at this point.

I'm actually guessing that opponent doesn't have AK, or QQ+.

Depends on population of players you are dealing with. More often than not the call means a weaker hand not a stronger hand. I call regardless though.

Firstly, thanks for the sarcasm. Given that my 4bet is still less than 3x his 3Bet, I think "giant" is a slight over-statement.

Secondly, upon further reflection, I really feel like a made a mistake on this one. I think I had that feeling as soon as I hit "fold". I do think I'm behind most of the time here, but I was pot committed, and I think I'm getting more than 25% equity, regardless.

Thanks for the comments guys. Always good to get other players thoughts.

Cheers,

David

You say that like 3x the 3b is some magic limit you need to be under.

this hand should clearly reflects something is wrong with that "3x the 3bet size" rule.
(you can`t make it "3x the 3bet size" w/o commiting your whole stack )

Not at all, I'm just using it to illustrate the fact that it can hardly be considered "giant". My 4Bet was towards the high end of standard 4Bet amount.

16bb is just too big of a 4b in position with a value hand. You 4b half his stack. You are really limiting his range and giving him no fold equity.

You can't fold now with the price your getting on a call.

I'm seriously interested in better understanding this, Dragon.

Hero here has 3900 invested into pot of 12,500 and needs to invest another 4200 of his remaining 10,000 stack to make the call.

Best case scenario here is that villain is on a flush draw and we're ahead plus have a re-draw to the queen of spades.

Second best scenario is that villain is shoving here with an underpair like JJ or TT and feels pot committed and is trying to take advantage of his fold equity with a lesser hand.

Any other scenario and we're behind.

So, how does the math work out here when we're getting 3:1 on the call, for half our remaining stack, and we're most likely behind? It's not a pre-flop situation where villain's range is wider. I'm just not clear on how to calculate the odds. Is it a question of reads here and predicting how often villain is making this bet without a King or a set?

The fact that we might be behind doesn't mean anything. Even if we could accurately calculate that we're 49% equity versus villains range it's a disaster for us to fold for the odds we're getting to call.

The problem is that villains line makes little sense, so your never going to accurately be able to range him. Since he's taken such a strange line (and no real reason to think he is overly competent) it's reasonable to assume that he's making this play with more than just pure value hands. For all we know villain could have just decided on the fly to make some silly stop'n'go type move on us after we 4b.

As a quick guesstimate, villains range could look something like:

Board: Kh5s3s
Equity Win Tie
MP2 67.86% 67.86% 0.00% { QsQc }
MP3 32.14% 32.14% 0.00% { JJ-33, KTs+, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As4s, As2s, A5o, A3o, KQo }

I'm sure arguments could be made for taking some hands out or adding some hands, but I feel this range is relatively conservative for villain.

2444/c pre. As played snap the flop

I think it's a fold, at least to me. If you think only a Queen or runner-runner can save you here, I'd rather keep half my stack and pick a better spot. To me, it really looks like someone with KK pre-flop who wanted to make sure he didn't get f'ed by an Ace.

We dont need to be ahead to make the call.

We only need 25% equity.

And if we give V range of KK+,JJ-TT,AKs,AKo we have 39%.