WSOP.com -- Daily $10 + $1 ($1500 guarantee) 102 players. 72 left. Two levels after end of rebuy period.

Villain and I had played a few hands already. He had been pretty aggressive and had folded to 3-bet two times. I beat him KK vs. QQ before the re-buy. He re-bought and added on at the break. No other reads.

$80/$160 Blinds (no ante)

Seat 1: BTN Brilliant27 ( $13,223 )
Seat 2: SB Dennis323 ( $9,580 )
Seat 3: Hero - BB PARoughrider ( $12,205 )
Seat 4: UTG Kennyb30 ( $5,785 )
Seat 5: UTG+1 snapcalled70 ( $5,832 )
Seat 6: Villain archegos ( $9,977 )
Seat 7: LittleBevac ( $7,413 )
Seat 9: PapaGrande ( $26,014 )
Seat 10: matik ( $8,896 )

Dealt to PARoughrider [ A, K ]
Kennyb30 folds
snapcalled70 folds
villain archegos raises [$420]
LittleBevac folds
PapaGrande folds
matik calls [$420]
Brilliant27 folds
Dennis323 calls [$340]
Hero: PARoughrider raises [$1,940]
archegos calls [$1,680]
matik folds
Dennis323 folds

** Dealing flop ** [ J, 5, 6 ]

Hero PARoughrider bets [$2,520]
villain - archegos raises [$7,877] and is All-In

Hero:?????

Based on the call of my 3-bet (no raise) I put him on a big pp (99+) but not better than QQ, or possibly also on AK. i chose to lead out on the flop and his jam suggested either QQ or maybe a set. I'm assuming that I've got two live over-cards if he has QQ plus all my flush draw outs. Is this a clear plus-value call, or with 70 players left in this tourney is it a fold and keep playing with 8000 chips?

Wtf. Unreg pre.

lol

Never fold now.

u know youre in trouble when betgo can find troll spots

Playing AK in tournaments is tough to get the hang of. GL.

If you know about pot odds, you just answered your own question. ICM only has a slight influence here, as you seem to be far from the money bubble.
BBV?

No, not a bad beat bitch. I think this is a clear calling situation, but was wondering how the math works out.

Villain's range here includes some hands that we will beat if we catch one of our six over-card outs (villain is 99, TT, QQ), some sets that we beat only if we catch the flush (assuming no pairs on the board) (JJ, 55, 66), and a few combos of AK that we chop if no diamond comes.

I am risking an additional 5500 chips to win a total of 19000, so getting nearly 4:1 on the call and even if it's a 50:50 coin flip, the pot odds say make the call (I did make the call). So, yes, I'm answering my own question but just wanted to know if in this kind of spot there is ever a strategic argument for a fold. I guess not. Sorry to trouble you, Betgo.

I ran a simulator on this but still having trouble understanding the math. As an example, the simulator says that on this board, up against a set of Jacks from villain, the AKdd has 52% equity. How is that possible? We win only if we catch one of our 9 diamond outs (without the board pairing), or if we draw out Q+10 (9 combos that are not diamonds). I guess I have to believe the calculator, but I have a hard time feeling comfortable that I'm "ahead" on the odds there.

OK, so can you see why you got the normally polite betgo to troll you?

You do realize that you have BOTH the turn and river to go, right?

What simulator showed you 52% against a set of jacks. You are 53% against mid pps, except 26% against JJ. Against a set of jacks, you have to make a flush or backdoor straight, and he has redraws against the flush.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

5,940 trials (Exhaustive)

board: j56

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
QQ	46.77%	2,778	0
AdKd	53.23%	3,162	0

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,970 trials (Exhaustive)

board: j56

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JJ	74.44%	2,211	0
AdKd	25.56%	759	0

Beat me to it.

Yeah, you typed something wrong in your calculator (in the JJ example).
Nevertheless, even against a set you've got 26% equity (courtesy of betgo, I didn't make the exact calculation myself), so you need 3:1 for a call. According to my read of your OP, you have pretty much exactly 3:1 on the call (maybe I've got something wrong though, you're talking about 4:1). Given we're far away from the money (-> almost no icm issue) and the fact that we just can't put villain on sets only, it's just a very basic call. Your tournament life isn't even on the line. You need to be very risk averse and bad at shortstack play (in case you lose the hand) to fold, and those would be bad excuses anyway. To be honest, villain's hand screams "set of Jacks" here, but even then, it's a call and there are quite enough cases where he doesn't have those jacks (you mentioned the Queens, etc.).
Well, more I cannot say.

/thread IMO

god ur such a moron

Call off. No additional insights to offer not already mentioned. Out of curiosity though, was it a set of Js?

+111111111111111111111111111111

Yes, set of Jacks. I called and didn't hit any of my outs.

Calculator was ProPokertools.com. I can't get the table formatting to paste here correctly but here's the information telling me that equity is 52.09% against a set of Jacks.

Hold'em Simulation ?
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: Jd, 5d, 6c
Hand Equity Wins Ties
Ad, Kd 52.09% 308,641 7,799
Js, Jc 47.91% 283,560 7,799


(I guess this is not the best tool.)

I posted the hand because I wondered whether there would be any argument for a fold despite the pot odds. The answer was a resounding "no." Thanks for confirming the play.

This is closer to your equity before the flop, but doesn't even look like that's it

lol yeah ur a favorite against a set of jacks obv

I already posted the equity with propokertools, which is 26% against a set of jacks. Not sure how you got the other figure.

You still have pot odds to call if you know he has a set. However, you are about even against his whole range, which includes some worse flush draws. So totally ridiculous to post this given the pot odds you are getting.

It is very basic to get it in with a strong draw like this, particularly with pot odds.

he has RIT on obv

Run it twice and add the percentages???

This thread's probably run it's course, I'll leave it open, but OP, you should take the trolls as a sign that it's very standard to get it in here.