Quote:
Originally Posted by betgo
Yeh, I understand, but if you have a hand you want to gii with, why not raise if you are going to get action? Why do you have to be balanced. We don't want to raise with the nuts, but we also can't bluff raise. Does that make sense. I agree in general, but it is all about adjustments, so I don't see never have a raising range on a particular flop.
I don't think it's that unusual from a GTO perspective to say that with a particular flop texture and a particular stack-size, and a particular ITM dynamic, that one should never raise a c-bet on the flop regardless of your holdings.
It could be the case that the way we extract most value from nutted hands is the same way we win the most often with air, which is by calling in both instances.
Below is a pure hypothetical, not perfectly constructed, but designed to show why given a certain set of facts, it may be correct to never raise this flop (at least with a villain who we don't know). It's for illustrative purposes only and obviously hero's range doesn't have to be that polarized.
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Let's say that our range consists of the nuts 30% of the time, and total garbage 70% of the time. And let's say our opponent's range consists of 25% super-strong hands, 25% medium-strong hands, and 50% total garbage. Let's say that our opponent will be willing to GII on the flop with super-strong hands and medium-strong hands but is only willing to GII on the turn with super-strong hands after villain bets again on the turn, because he feels he's behind at that point with his medium-strong hands.
Let's say that we show a profit of 100K if we GII and win, and lose 100K if we GII and lose on the flop. On the flop, we win 20K if villain folds.
Let's say that on turn we show a profit of 100K if we GII and win, and lose 100K if we GII and lose on the turn. On the turn, we win 40K if villain folds.
FLOP: 50% of the time, we will win 20K when opponent has garbage for 10K. The other 50% of the time, we will win 30% of the time and lose 70% of the time, resulting in a net loss of 20K. So, if we raise our entire range on the flop, we lose 10K.
TURN: 75% of the time, we will win 40K when opponent folds and turn a profit of 30K. The other 25% of the time, we will win 30% of the time and lose 70% of the time, for a net loss of 10K. We turn a profit overall of 20K waiting until the turn to raise with our entire range.