So there is 3tables left and villain is a tight fish.
I was thinking to raise otf, but wanted to reduce the variance, since the field is so soft and its late stage. Ott then i faced this sizing i thought i'm against a semi bluff hand like a ak or aq so decided to raise, imagining i have at least 30% of fold equity, which would be very profitable. What do others think about villain's range, then he bets so small ott?

PokerStars - $30+$3|3500/7000 Ante 875 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 9.68 BB (VPIP: 7.69, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)
Hero (BB): 35.91 BB
UTG: 29.55 BB (VPIP: 21.62, PFR: 8.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 37)
UTG+1: 24.01 BB (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 15.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 42)
MP: 15.09 BB (VPIP: 12.31, PFR: 11.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 66)
MP+1: 8.51 BB (VPIP: 18.81, PFR: 13.20, 3Bet Preflop: 1.18, Hands: 203)
MP+2: 51.76 BB (VPIP: 24.84, PFR: 15.64, 3Bet Preflop: 11.97, Hands: 311)
CO: 74.05 BB (VPIP: 20.99, PFR: 9.88, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 82)
BTN: 19.9 BB (VPIP: 27.12, PFR: 23.36, 3Bet Preflop: 12.24, Hands: 118)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.63 BB) Hero has Q J

fold, UTG+1 raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop: (7.63 BB, 2 players) 3 4 8
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB

Turn: (13.63 BB, 2 players) 9
Hero checks, UTG+1 bets 4 BB, Hero raises to 11 BB, UTG+1 raises to 17.88 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 6.88 BB

River: (49.39 BB, 2 players) 2

Hero shows Q J (High Card, Queen)
(Pre 16%, Flop 37%, Turn 27%)
UTG+1 shows Q Q (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 84%, Flop 63%, Turn 73%)
UTG+1 wins 49.39 BB

His sizing on the turn must of been a mistake or he was generally scared of being beat by a set then you check raised and he probably said what ever I got queens let's roll with it lol very strange bet anyways when he double barrels here your outs are usually just down to the flush draw and gut shot on turn. He would probably only double barrel made pairs two overs with the flush draw no real bluffs here. Most players know that board sucks to cbet to begin with a double barrel doesn't fold out much as to their is nothing that reps his range. Check raiseing with tons of aggression is fine if all 18 of your outs were good but you were down to 9 from flop to river at 35 percent and you pick up the 12 on the turn only hitting about 26 percent. So having 18 outs to figure out later you weren't even close to having a equity edge sucks. I know you did this shove because of your outs plus his odd turn bet but I don't think you should base the entire hand off one funky piece of information if you would of just flatted there you would of bricked the river and folded to remain in the tourney and calling wouldn't of been a bad play its plus ev just not as ev when we do raise and have a legitimate 18 outter which we never here.


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Check jam turn and nh imo.

It is going in on the turn anyhow, either just jamming or x/jam. Villain has a few give ups that will win at showdown which we could shut out.

I'm definitely for the x/jam solution OTT. We can make him fold some hands that have sense: AK, AT, 66-77. If it has better so be it. But its weak 2barrel lets me think we have some room to make him do a bad lay-down. BTW, we still have 25% equity not considering overcards good outs.

On the turn, I think if we raise, the only good sizing is the jam.

In this hand, imo, the real question is: what tell can we take from villain's preflop, flop and turn sizing?
Because our turn decision depends on that, and only on that actually (because both call and jam are reasonable plays, but we should take into account the information that is given to us, otherwise we are just clicking buttons).
My experience (which may be biased) is that if a villain raises 3BB pre while I have seen him raise smaller before, then bets small later in the hand, it often means that he's afraid of getting multiple calls pre with a very strong hand (or sometimes a small pair), then, if heads-up on the flop, is afraid to lose his customer by betting big.
But the difference can be very subtle with a player who just randomly bets small with small value. In those cases, the turn raise might be better! Usually, those are specific profiles that do that very often and that you can spot beforehand.

Maybe I am overthinking this, but I think it's the only way to have an edge in this hand. Because in a vacuum, I agree with turn shove, but we're not in vacuum!...

Call vs that betsize imo. If he raised from lp I like c/jam as well. But vs his utg range it seems like we should exploid him by calling on turn. He is not folding a draw (most of his draws are better) or made hand so not sure what c/jam accomplishs here

imo he can has 15 combos of ak, 12 combos of aq, and 15 combos of aj, so we accomplish to make them fold. The only few draws that he migh have and never fold is AKhh and AJhh.

your description of villain as a "tight fish" might make me just call the turn and re evaluate the river. Tight fish don't usually lead out unless they have some kind of a hand, all they see if their two cards and when they look down at QQ it's hard to make them fold that.

i agree that they never fold there jj+ and i'm not even trying to do that, i'm jamming there cause then they do bet such a small bet ott its not only jj+. So then you do call ott and 're evaluate the river' its either you hit a flush or T for a straight or you miss and never win, which is gonna happen like 76% of the time. Also then we do hit and are oop, we can't be sure to be paid all the time, but i guess this kind of player wouldn't fold if we donk otr.

Few extra thoughts. We block JJ-QQ combos by 50%. When we check jam and river a straight/flush we get full value from the hands that call it off, when conversely they might check back an ugly river. We give ourselves the chance to win the pot on the turn a % of the time and fully realise our equity.

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