8Max 130$ live buy in
Stack size 100k
Blinds: 1500 / 3000 with a 400 Ante
44 players remaining, 12 paid, 3.6k to 1st.

I look down at J and J in MP position and open to 7.5k
Player to my direct left in cut-off calls, blinds fold. (Player is a very average reg, probably a break even player at best, most likely a small loser. My read on him was that he doesn't call extremely loose pre but he shows moderate aggression but tends to make poor stabs and possibly bluffs too wide in some spots especially flops)

Pot is now 22,700

Flop: 9 8 8

I check for the reason above, i expect him to take a stab very wide acknowledging this hand hit his range harder than mine. Also, pot control. I don't want to get in 33BB on this flop with JJ.

Villain bets 9.5k. I call as planned.

Pot is now: 41700

Turn is a 10

I check in flow and villain checks back. At this point I'm thinking of value betting the river if a safe card comes.

River is a 2 Board is now 9 8 8 10 2

I bet 22k into the pot of 41.7k. Note, although this bet is around half pot its actually kind of polarizing. We didn't get to many rivers in an hour and it might of been one of the bigger river bets fired out. If you've played live tournament you'll know what I'm talking about. (or maybe I'm wrong and just insane lol)

Villain thinks for 45 seconds and hits me with the All-in for 65k.

One of the most difficult spots I've been in, in a very long time. What value does he have and what bluffs does he have? What would you do?

I'm really struggling to figure out what value hand he'd play like this - he might get here like this with 98 or 99 I guess. QJ presumably continues betting OTT and you heavily block this anyway and this is big overplay with 76s or other 8x.

I probably wouldn't fold - I can definitely see villain having levelled himself in to some kind of big hero bluff as you've probably capped your range by taking such a passive line.


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When i went into the tank I was thinking about ranges and I block QJ so heavily it just narrows his value range so thin.

Again, he's not insane pre and he would only call with 98 suited combos. I guess pocket 9's but betting flop checking turn is a weird weird line with that hand

I think we need to call given the fact that this was your plan the whole way. The hand played out exactly as you envisioned (besides the river shove), his line is strange indeed and it doesn't make much sense. I don't see 99 or 98 as I would expect some checks OTF with those hands and also if they lead the flop and get called with those hands I would fully expect them to bet again OTT. I suppose the could have QQ-AA and was trapping pre, but would they shove OTR with that? Seems unlikely.

What was villains stack size? I suppose there are a few combos of 67s that would call pre and that would take this line. The blockers to the nut straight obv play a big part in this hand. I'm thinking it's easier a missed FD, 67s or 9x hands trying to bet you off the pot. I also think 10x hands just call the river.

With all that said, I think I'm calling

Personally don't have him flatting any 67 combos with 27 BB

Agree with the analysis here ... he had just enough to make a bluff out of it and give you some thought to folding but any legit hands here (QJ/99/88/QQ+) don't make a ton of sense. But he's also probably not a great player.

This is something I've come to realize about low/mid stakes live tournies... don't think too perfect on strategy and assume your opponent is doing the optimal thing. I played against a LAG last tourney that was just all over the place pre and post-flop - UNLESS he had a near-nut hand. Then he'd all of a sudden start checking to trap. Like, seriously? You can't LAG the bluffs then nit it up and get good value. It just made no sense. So don't assume players will play correctly. He could certainly have a top hand here and just played it poorly. The fact it was a $130 buy in gives a reasonable approach to fold.

All that said, I probably make a crying call as played.

Did hero make the big call?

No diamonds, 2 jacks, seems like a pretty sexy bluffcatcher to me.

Let's assume our opponent's value jam range here is straights or better. If our opponent's preflop call range is TT-22,AQo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AQs-A9s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs, then he's probably going to have 18 combos of straights, full houses and flushes.

For me to be getting the right price to call, I have to find 9 bluff combos for my opponent. In most scenarios, our opponent could bluff with KQdd, KJdd, AJdd, AQdd. Maybe we add in a couple of additional open enders where our opponent has AJo or KJo. Unless our opponent fires a large percentage of these hands or starts jamming with air, getting to 9 isn't that cut and dry.

I probably lean towards folding here even based on the villain's profile, but it's close enough that calling it off (especially if this player is prone to overbluffing) may be ok.

Hit the nail right on the coffin. Villain showed up with 1010 which he checked on the turn.

I personally hate the play because betting turn and betting river would get the money in 100% of the time against a wide range including maybe AA and KK.

Oh well. Either we win or we learn

He has TT