[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (30/60 blinds, 5 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37254022

UTG+1: 1,498 (25 bb)
UTG+2: 3,687 (61.5 bb)
MP1: 1,711 (28.5 bb)
MP2: 3,001 (50 bb)
MP3: 3,847 (64.1 bb)
Hero (CO): 2,885 (48.1 bb)
BTN: 4,979 (83 bb)
SB: 6,676 (111.3 bb)
BB: 3,558 (59.3 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
3 folds, MP2 raises to 150, MP3 folds, Hero calls 150, 2 folds, BB calls 90

Flop: (525) J 8 A (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets 349, Hero calls 349, BB folds

Turn: (1,223) J (2 players)
MP2 bets 611
Pretty big bet on the flop already scared me tbh. When he bets turn it looks like he's setting up a river shove and I just can't see him vbetting AT here or bluffing very often since we can have so many Jx.
Std fold ott?

Would call 1 More. If Flop was 5way I would fold turn.

Calling turn and folding river to me seems like a bad idea with basically no outs vs his valuerange

I'm not excited either but folding seems worse. He can def bet worse hands on turn in a hu pot so I don't like giving up the best two pair combo we are perceived to have and continue with trips+ on this texture.

Think 3b to ~375 little better than flat pre (depending on image etc).

As played, call now

Yeah, I think call turn to fold river seems OK.

I see this posted a lot and it doesn't make sense. If our river call range = our turn call range, then villain would never be incentivised to bluff. Our range should get narrower each time we face a bet. It's up to us as poker players to decide where we should draw the line.

OP, what does your flat range look like pre flop?

I see what you mean, and I'm not someone that blindly says "if you call turn, you have to call river" every hand. But I think in this case it's true. I think you can agree against most people we beat close to zero valuehands on the turn and we have no idea if he could be bluffing here. If we call (with no real chance of improving) and he bets river again we still have no clue if he could be bluffing or not. So we're just 'hoping' he shuts it down after the turn, that doesn't really sound like a plan.

Flatting range~: 22+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,AJo+,KQo

I would probably call turn as well. When I flop top pair good kicker in standard spots I am usually almost always willing to call off 2 bets.

The reason this makes sense in today's game is that many players are now learning to double barrel. Just as player started to almost always c-bet when HOH1 was released, now many players are learning the f\value of the turn c-bet as well and many are just blasting off with air, knowing that it usually will take more than 1 bet to get players to fold in today's game. Therefore, in today's game the double barrel is not with the same strength as it was just 5 years ago.

So what you are implying is that in 5 years time, you will need to triple barrel to get any hand to fold, right?

No. That is not what I said. It is possible, because already there are some players you need to empty the clip to make them fold marginal hands. But against alot of the competition in today's game, 2 barrels is what you should expect them to attempt to get you to fold.

In 5 years time we don't know where the game will lead. It is possible it may start reverting back to tighter standards. I think in the loose aggressive game we have come just about as far as possible with the game and I believe the natural progression will be toward a hybrid TAG/LAG game. Not as tight as it was in the Harrington era, but not as loose as it is today. I think the game will find a happy medium on it's way to attempt to solve the game.

So it is possible it will take 5 years to revert back, or maybe longer.

But today, many players are firing the flop and turn with air attempting to get folds. So the old advice of folding the turn if you can't plan to call a river bet is not as valid as it was back in the late 90's and early 2000's when that adage was written in the poker publications. It was at one point in time considered sage advice, but that game has changed since then and it is no longer good advice.