Big $22, folding 3rd nutboat vs donkbet otr? - MTT Poker Strategy

Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (7,000/14,000 blinds, 1,750 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #25975081

BTN: 655,885 (46.8 bb)
SB: 351,128 (25.1 bb)
BB: 335,890 (24 bb)
MP1: 368,123 (26.3 bb)
MP2: 439,414 (31.4 bb)
MP3: 1,390,689 (99.3 bb)
Hero (CO): 629,211 (44.9 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q

MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 28,000, MP3 calls 28,000, Hero calls 28,000, 2 folds, BB calls 14,000

Flop: (131,250) Q

(4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, MP3 checks, Hero bets 52,500, 2 folds, MP3 calls 52,500

Turn: (236,250) Q

(2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets 97,557, MP3 calls 97,557

River: (431,364) A

(2 players)
MP3 bets 385,000, Hero ...

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Last 20 in b22 with as usual a soft field left. In hindsight i think both flop but especially turn should be sized larger. Now lets assume two scenario's
1) Villain unknown, ss blocked, running 15/9/2 over 61 hands.
2) Villain is this guy: http://www.pocketfives.com/profiles/cooltwister/

Quote

04-19-2014 , 01:04 PM

Sir AA

grinder

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 651

Seems so sick spot tbh. Don't know how random would ever bluff this spot w/o history and dont think he would lead Tx so big like ever esp vs ur line.

Vs thinking crusher this spot gets tougher, you will never have top range but your hand still smashes that board. Would be sexy spot to blufflead Tx to try to get u fold out lower fh's, but ingame i suppose noone will ever fold boat here ....

Im snapping KQ+ , QJ seems like the worst case scenario where ideally folding would be best and might even be exploitable but vs that sizing it seems ur smashed.

You were gonna xback or ship river ?

Quote

04-19-2014 , 01:49 PM

ArtanisAce

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 470

I would put him on AT, 9T or AQ; I don't think this guy is slowplaying 2 pair there on that flop. Probably more like AT or 9T and doesnt want you to check back; I would call

Quote

04-19-2014 , 03:54 PM

johall111

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 4,496

i think both are folds that i do not make enough in game. even though his actions have discounted a good amount of value combos i just cant imagine enough bluffs and valuecuts in his donk range where we win ~31%

Quote

04-20-2014 , 04:04 AM

AKupaA

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 488

It's very difficult to fold this hand. AQ is the only hand he could have here that beat ours. He is never checking OTF with 2 pairs or a set and otherwise there are lot of Tx combos in his range. His river bet is a bit sick but how can we fold here??

Quote

04-20-2014 , 06:35 AM

Noob3R

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 313

The guy is flatting from MP vs UTG ~30bb stack. How many Tx do you put in his range knowing he is a very good player according to his pcktfives rankings? Close to none. Prolly TT and check/calling TT on this turn card is no good imo, and he prolly knows that, so I think this should be a fold against his whole range, no? I cant see a hand he is bluffing with, or is value betting that we beat.

Quote

04-20-2014 , 07:19 AM

AKupaA

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 488

So you are completely sure he holds AQ?

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04-20-2014 , 07:20 AM

reziduer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 646

You are not getting exploited if u fold the river. Optimal play will be to fold.

If you are 3b/calling (AQs) pre, then I am guessing that ur range on the river should be (KQs, KQo, QJs, ATs, T9s) since you wold probably not bet AQo otf. You should be folding 60% of ur distribution on the river in order to play this optimal.

If ur range otr happens to be (KQs, KQo, QJs, ATs, T9s, AQs, AQo) for some reason. You still need to fold the QJs.
QJs is a sad fold when playing optimal.

U can call otr if ur range is (KQs, KQo, QJs, ATs, T9s, AQs, AQo, QTs).

p.s.Just two cents from a fish reg...

Last edited by reziduer; 04-20-2014 at 07:31 AM.

Quote

04-20-2014 , 07:23 AM

reziduer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by AKupaA

Actaully is a pretty easy fold when playing optimal strategy.

Quote

04-20-2014 , 10:20 AM

#10

FatsoFat6969

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 3,987

If villain is good this is a trivial fold.. Id expect to see AA and AQ a ton here and almost no bluffs.. Think about how his range is constructed given action and think what hands he gets to the river with and now feels have to bluff..

I say trivial fold but i think it would be tough to do ingame

Quote

04-20-2014 , 11:03 AM

#11

AKupaA

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 488

Please Sokz try to not post villain's hand

Quote

04-20-2014 , 11:10 AM

#12

reziduer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 646

Quote:

Originally Posted by FatsoFat6969

Hi FatsoFat6969

Would you fold KQ on this river?
Thanks! I really value your opinion.

Quote

04-20-2014 , 11:30 AM

#13

Sokz

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,331

I feel like QJ = KQ basically since villain would lead KQ on the flop but not really into them unexploitable bet/call frequenties that you're talking about.

At those who put AT T9s (QTs KTs?) in villains range, do you think this river is a valuebet from those type of hands?

@AkupaA, I tried to hide the hand as good as possible but if you try even the slightest bit you'll find out. Ill ask a mod to furter cover it up since i cant change OP myself anymore

Quote

04-20-2014 , 01:03 PM

#14

reziduer

banned

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 646

Yeah,he basically never has KQ there.
But if you bouth know that... I would turn my AKo in to a bluff here with 20 people left in the tournament. But I am also capable of having AKo in this situation+ I am couple of levels behind that Villain and most of the guys here at 2+2.
That being said I take my words back. This isn't always an easy fold.

Quote

04-22-2014 , 03:06 PM

#15

MatteoBounce

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,413

1) fold
2) fold (and feel owned)

I assume you fear villain could be value betting worse?

Quote

04-22-2014 , 03:46 PM

#16

Sokz

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,331

Yesh, maybe not 'value'valuebetting but a rando*****s donkbet with QT not thinking about what worse hands id call.

Quote

04-22-2014 , 04:02 PM

#17

MatteoBounce

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,413

yup, that's what i mean^^

Quote

04-23-2014 , 12:41 PM

#18

gregz41

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 8,609

Do crushers take this line that often? Especially with that sizing, meh, I'm not convinced.

Quote

04-24-2014 , 07:19 AM

#19

Sokz

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2012 Posts: 1,331

Do you consider 2) Villain is this guy: http://www.pocketfives.com/profiles/cooltwister/ this guy to be a crusher? I didnt know him at the time.

Quote

04-24-2014 , 09:27 AM

#20

lissistinkt

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,816

Quote:

Originally Posted by gregz41

Do crushers take this line that often? Especially with that sizing, meh, I'm not convinced.

first hes probally not a crusher
second crushers dont take this line very often but in this hand they did and we have to deal with it
third trivial fold like fatso said

Quote

04-24-2014 , 10:31 AM

#21

MasterJ009

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,386

If you size it that small, you should call any river imo.
I'd call pretty happily vs random.
70k flop, overshove turn looks sexy

Quote

04-24-2014 , 10:58 AM

#22

lissistinkt

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,816

^^ villain is a std random reg

Quote

04-24-2014 , 11:09 AM

#23

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by johall111

That's an easy fold

Over shoving turn will be terrible.

Quote

04-24-2014 , 04:14 PM

#24

MasterJ009

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,386

Quote:

Originally Posted by lissistinkt

^^ villain is a std random reg

As I have the feeling in midstakes online a big bet is rarely as a bluff, I do think villain might not always put us on a boat here.
I'm trying to come up with better boats villain has, but besides AA or AQ I really can't see why he would check/call a 4-way flop with a set. And I don't think we have to fold everytime if that is his exact range that beats us.
Feels to me he has a lot of Tx here, like JT, AT, KT, 9T perhaps..

BTW: what do you guys think of sizing? I feel like we shouldve bet more every street no?

Quote

04-24-2014 , 04:54 PM

#25

ibimon

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 998

Equity Win Tie

MP2 48.15% 44.44% 3.70% AdAh, AdAc, AhAc, KdKs, KdKc, KsKc, JdJc, KsQs, AdTd, AhTh, AcTc, AdQs, AhQs, AcQs, AdTh, AdTs, AdTc, AhTd, AhTs, AhTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, KdQs, KsQd, KcQs, QsJd, QsJc

Hero 51.85% 48.15% 3.70% QhJh

we have to call imo

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