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AQ bubble decision AQ bubble decision

12-14-2014 , 09:23 PM
11 left - 8 get paid - my table is currently 6 handed - blinds 500/1000 with 75 ante

I am in 5th-6th place with 15520 chips

I open to 2045 utg with AQ and the action goes:

fold
fold
fold

V goes all in for 15529

fold

Action back to me.. Call it off or muck?

Generally these 15 bb resteals are more often value hands than trash but whatever..

Thoughts on what best play is?

Will reveal action after discussion..
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-14-2014 , 09:39 PM
What do you know about the villain? My first instinct is to snap call with these stack sizes however a lot would depend on any info on the villain.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-14-2014 , 09:49 PM
I think he's capable of jamming good hands for value and medium strength ones as well.. I saw him do the same thing a few hands later with AJcc.. He has a lot of midpairs and stuff in his range here too I think?!

I imagine he thinks I'm opening mostly strong hands utg.. so I think he may expect me to call and welcome the action.. In the same breath, I don't think he has to have super premium hands to do this..
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-14-2014 , 11:26 PM
I mean, I just don't see how he can expect you to fold here ever. Even 5 handed I don't think you need a r/f range with 15bbs utg. I'd guess he's tightish, like 77+, AJ+ or smth with some possible KQs/ATs, occasional lowere pp's tossed in if he's seen you fold in spots like this before.

Prob somewhere between 45-50% equity depending on where he's at on the spectrum. Definitely a +cev call, not sure in a bubbly situation that it's a good spot to call it off though which is why I'd probably just open jam myself, just too good to r/f and too weak to induce on a bubble.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-15-2014 , 05:07 AM
I think I usually call this since it's only one villain who has jammed in late position who perhaps has made some questionable jams (???)

If AQ suited can jam under the gun you never go broke by calling here. You might have the worst hand though. If jamming gets you the same results or worse (since min raising might induce loose jams), then just call here. Make sense?

You've put in about 2bb out of 15. So disregarding antes, you're calling 13 to win 30. Put antes in and well I don't feel like doing the math now....

I might raise fold a hand like KQ or KQ suited. I just feel like a hand like AJ or A10 suited could possibly be jamming here. Against lower pairs, it's fine to call. Could even have 99-JJ. Only hands you have to worry about are QQ+ or AK...
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-15-2014 , 09:21 AM
Just jam pre, no point in inducing 3 from the money with 15 bbs and aqs. Fold now
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-15-2014 , 03:31 PM
In this specific tourney.. there were many stacks very close to 15bb.. I think an open jam would have been perceived as even lighter that AQhh type of strength..

I also don't think the guy that did jam thinks I'm opening light or interested in calling it off very light..

After some thought, I think he has to have hands he doesn't want to play tricky flop texture with (88-QQ) and AK (with tiny chance of AJsuited once in a while) but his bomb is for value (esp with hands like AK) essentially always..

In game, I called (prob to quickly) like a mutt and he had AK.. I regret it and will prob fold if faced when similar spot in future.

This was right on the FT bubble and I just don't think anyone is messing around vs me too much here.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-15-2014 , 05:44 PM
Speed of sound call, many ppl r/f in your spot so its rly soft to 3bet jam hand like 22+/A10s+ from his spot and only AK really dominate you. Sometimes you just gotta go with it especially with AQs w 15bb gl folding this and ur not on the exact bubble its 3 guy left to bust.

Last edited by POL; 12-15-2014 at 05:52 PM.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-15-2014 , 07:12 PM
if u are thinking to open->fold this spot w AQs 15bbs short handed it's better to just ship it in pre..but this usually it's an easy open->call for value
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12-17-2014 , 02:33 PM
Call it off.
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12-18-2014 , 08:51 PM
Very usual situation. Depends on the villains 3bet %

Most of the times calling there is +ev
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 05:36 AM
call , too good to fold 6 handed even if villains tight
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 05:43 AM
Just jam it, if we are ever thinking of folding and looking for a better spot with 15bb just stay home
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 05:43 AM
Open shove pre
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12-19-2014 , 06:45 AM
All of the above.
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12-19-2014 , 07:03 AM
I can make a case for both folding and calling here, but I will probably fold because I am a little nittier than others. Calling here is not especially bad even if you got yourself into a AK vs AQ situation ( it's a cooler, close the lobby and open the next tournament ).
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 10:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good Everything
This was right on the FT bubble and I just don't think anyone is messing around vs me too much here.
except people that know you'll fold AQ.
just sayin.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 12:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Good Everything
In this specific tourney.. there were many stacks very close to 15bb.. I think an open jam would have been perceived as even lighter that AQhh type of strength..

I also don't think the guy that did jam thinks I'm opening light or interested in calling it off very light..
Then open jam AQs. You might get called by AJ or worse.

Here you are perceived as strong yet the guy shoves over you.

When I call here I routinely see AK/KK. Every now and then JJ/TT.

So I would let it go the way you played it...
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 12:37 PM
Have to call it off.
If you dont want to raise call because of the bubble just open ship. But I prefer raise call here.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 04:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
Then open jam AQs. You might get called by AJ or worse.

Here you are perceived as strong yet the guy shoves over you.

When I call here I routinely see AK/KK. Every now and then JJ/TT.

So I would let it go the way you played it...
ruh roh, deduction
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 07:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
Then open jam AQs. You might get called by AJ or worse.

Here you are perceived as strong yet the guy shoves over you.

When I call here I routinely see AK/KK. Every now and then JJ/TT.

So I would let it go the way you played it...
THIS is the answer I was looking for.. +1 for Mr Rick -

I thought this exact thing after the fact and was not happy about the mistake. I called like a total mutt and he soooo obv had AK..

With my 15bb's being good for 5th or 6th place, 11 left and 8 get paid.. dude with same stack as me just isn't bluffing and prob actually folding to my open with almost everything worse..
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-19-2014 , 08:13 PM
next time just show AQ and watch how many people show you 88+ and ATss+
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-20-2014 , 05:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCake
Just jam it, if we are ever thinking of folding and looking for a better spot with 15bb just stay home
this.
AQ bubble decision Quote
12-20-2014 , 08:00 AM
What is your reasoning to opr ?
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