Hi, villain is a bad agressive player, running 42/27, fold to 3bet 0/2, afq 67 % over 60 hh.

Is it better to call, or shove ?


partypoker - €100+€0|200/400 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 18,796
MP: 66,964
CO: 8,481
Hero (BTN): 20,897
SB: 24,386
BB: 16,817

6 players post ante of 40, SB posts SB 200, BB posts BB 400

Pre Flop: (pot: 840) Hero has A K

fold, MP raises to 1,600, fold, Hero raises to 3,800, fold, fold, MP calls 2,200

Flop: (8,440, 2 players) 9 7 T
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (8,440, 2 players) 2
MP bets 4,220, Hero ?

Assuming we have 15 outs. Villian has to be bluffing 17% of time for a shove to turn a profit. But if we only have 9 outs, he needs to have a 40% bluffing rate.


I'd be happy to shove in either case.

Given that those percentages include semi-bluff draws - he could well have straight draw or lower flush draw - I think this is an easy shove, especially since he may well perhaps fold a lower pair, but your hand is also pretty face up given you're betting this flop with a pair.

BTW - the flop hits his range reasonably hard, but I think a c-bet is worth considering

What is our turn range after we jam.
What does he ever fold?

He's only folding air and his draws. At this point, I think you're hand range is pretty face up and he'll be willing to take the risk of you having an overpair. Our opponent is loose, is he not?

Took the words out of my mouth?

If you're not betting for value, what hands are you trying to fold out?

I feel like this.

Lol @ shove. ...This V will snap call a shove with any pair, also his range can easily have awful draws that he barrels again...
Way better to call and call off the river if we hit or the river pairs the board

I call. If river hits, he pays off our outs. If we miss, check behind. We beat all draws. Then I would actively engage this player TAG. Open for value for him to call wide. Carefully extract value.

Shove will get snap called 95% of the time. Hell, aren't we getting 3 to 1 here?

solid 4x open from villain.

Flat the turn bet.

Yeah yeah. What worse hand calls, what better hand folds etc. What about: We likely have the best hand now and want to avoid any possibility of folding the best hand on the river when we miss?

The guy is 42/27 and we checked back the flop! Gas to the fire, he's betting 100% of whatever he started with, so PP is way less than half his range.

I would call turn, call river on K A hearts boardpairs and potentially 3-5

it seems in some other spot shoving turn with an overpair can be ok vs guy who doesn`t fold 1pairs, but his 4x opening strongly reduces amount of broadways, SCs, gappers in his range.

I'm in the c/c most rivers team also. He might not barrel river with some stuff that beats us as well, like Tx.

Anyway, what about raising bigger pre since he likes calling? I can see a 4.xK working better for us (again, completely V based).

Just wondering if anyone could post the math behind these numbers, or if there is anywhere I could learn how to do these calculations.

Call turn and call some rivers ... we can credibly rep showdown value with this line and we just have the best hand here a ton

Please please please no longer reply or even bother reading my posts...I said call turn and call river board pairs. We can't get bluffed off the best hand :s this line allows him to barrel the river again.

You're one of the most annoying people I've run into here

UTG: 18,796
MP: 66,964
CO: 8,481
Hero (BTN): 20,897
SB: 24,386
BB: 16,817

6 players post ante of 40, SB posts SB 200, BB posts BB 400

Pre Flop: (pot: 840) Hero has A K

fold, MP raises to 1,600, fold, Hero raises to 3,800, fold, fold, MP calls 2,200

Flop: (8,440, 2 players) 9 7 T
MP checks, Hero checks

Turn: (8,440, 2 players) 2
MP bets 4,220, Hero ?

Please go do your homework and tell me how many of the top 42% of hands hit this flop in the face. The fact that V is considered bad and aggressive is not something that's in our favor on this particular board. He also hasn't folded to a 3 bet, showing a willingness to gamble a bit.

After the flop action, Hero has 17k left and we have checked the flop (which I would probably bet even though this hits his range). Even though V is bad, we can't underestimate him and this does smell a bit like a thin value bet.

If we play this atrocious and shove, he will need to call 12.8k to win 29k, which is about 2.25 to 1. This gets called by most of his range. He only needs the best hand about 30% of the time to make this a profitable call. He is also loose, bad, and OOP. Our position doesn't matter anymore when you're all in, as most of us on here already know.

We are getting very good pot odds assuming we have 15 outs and we are doing okay with 9 outs if we hit the flush and can win another bet on the river.

There is no reason to risk putting all your money in bad here, these are the types of spots you usually want to avoid against these types of players.

By my count that leaves half the deck outside your river call parameters. So you will definitely be folding the best hand a fair amount.

It shouldn't be hard for anybody to run through our discussions and decide who's shown the least class. Just because somebody doesn't think the same way as the rest of the crowd, doesn't mean that they don't deserve a minimum level of courtesy.

:s no I don't consistently comment on your views like you do. I don't wanna explain to you why calling is best but here's a little tip...you're still playing the game at a stage where your biggest fear is to be bluffed off of the best hand. Once you get past that you'll understand

One thing we all agree on is that there's a good chance we have the best hand on the turn. Yes or No?

Exactly! So why raise and allow him to fold his bluffs?! We want him to barrel again

If we were deeper stacked, I would agree with you 100%. Calling in position is a no brainer.

Back to the issue at hand. If we’re usually ahead, it stands to reason that villain is the one with the smaller equity share. So why not shove and deny him that equity?

But… That would be throwing away our implied odds
But… We’re giving him reverse implied odds if we’re willing to call the river with Ace high
But… We might not call the river depending on ?
etc. etc. etc.

I could probably come on board for calling, but only if we’re confident he’ll bet the river most of the time AND we commit to calling both streets. If not, I’m pretty sure shoving is better

Raising here it´s just stupid.
Call, river ?