Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,974
No, this jam is fine. The trend lately from the SB among good players is trending towards 3b or fold their range. Additionally, your position in the HJ and your image makes you a target for a light 3b.
Let's imagine his 3b is a 13% polarized balanced range. He calls off with the top 6%.
54% * 9.5bbs + 46%[(46bbs * 37%) - 20bbs] = 3.75bbs cEV.
That is huge. And if he feels compelled to call you off with his entire range your AJs is going to be over 50% against his entire range.
In MTTs, you want to avoid break even spots, and look for spots with edges, because as opposed to cash, survival of your stack means something. Most pros set the edge around 1/2 bbs. So if a play has minimal equity, say 0.10bbs in an MTT as opposed to cash this should be avoided. If your cEV is 1.0 or above this is above the edges required so this expectation is good. As you get closer to the 0.5bbs mark it becomes a closer decision, where there are times you may accept a risk of slightly lower than that edge or times you may want to pass up edges slightly greater than that edge.