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AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here?

03-03-2015 , 01:58 AM
$365 Live Tourney at WSOP Circuit in Baltimore

Blinds: 150-300-25 (Level 6 - still long way to go)
Stacks: Hero has 14k. V covers (at about 20k)

Villain: 23 yr old hoodie white kid. Looks the part. I just got moveed here about 20 mins ago and have not seen V do much. He certainly is not LAG or reckless. I'd say TAG though. I have not seen him limp.

Hero Image: I came to table with about 4k and quickly got it in on a few hands which were uncontested to build to about 6k or so. I did get a double up and showed down KK after 3 bet shoving AI for the 2nd time in a row. A few mins later I got in a multi-way pot vs a UTG raiser and a caller and overbet the pot on a wet flop (I hit 2 pair but they did not know that). So i am guessing my image appears to be LAG/TAG somewhere in there.

Folds to me and I raise from CO with QJ. V, in SB, 3 bets to $2400. I call.

Pot: 5400
Flop: KT7

V bets 1700 into 5400.
Pot= 7100...

I have 11600 left behind...what is the best play here?
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-03-2015 , 03:18 AM
Interesting spot.

I think pre call to the 3-bet is borderline given he's tag, but I could go either way - 20mins is like 15 hands, not a lot of time to get a huge read.

If we put him on AT+, 88+, we have a lot of blockers here, and this flop should hit our range fairly hard, but the bet is really small. If he's tricky could he be inducing with a set? I don't think so, seems like too many draws here to bet that small.

What do we put him on? AK, KQ, AT, AQ,. If I had to put him on a hand it might be a weakish made hand like AT or a draw or gutshot like AQ with say a heart hoping he might take it down cheaply, or if he gets called has a reasonable chance to improve on turn.

Very tough....I think I just jam and pray,
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-03-2015 , 03:25 AM
peel, if you r-GII you might as well be crushed vs stronger draws like AhJh/AhQh and your remaining stacks is a bit to big to jam it OTF.

Board shall smash your range, so V's tiny bet doesn't make much sense to me other then he is b/f it or has a NFD himself. Peel and reval OTT.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-03-2015 , 10:36 AM
Cut out T4,200, think for awhile, pull off the top chip only and say "call" as you toss it in.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-03-2015 , 01:17 PM
Anything other than flatting this c bet would be considered pretty spewy imo. Yes, we have an open ender and a decent amount of equity, but this flop hits our opponents 3 betting range pretty good, not to mention the fact that we don't want to overplay a straight draw without two hearts on the board and none in our hand. Our opponent is never folding a king and certainly not folding 1010, and the chances of folding him off of QQ and JJ are also slim since we block both of those hands with our QJs. We need to be flatting this flop, especially with the amazing price our opponent is giving us to see a turn card. Not only can we hit when seeing the turn, but our opponent may also give us a chance to steal the pot on the turn or river if we don't improve with our own hand. I honestly don't see any other options than this, but I'm open to other suggestions if anyone thinks they have a better approach to the hand than this.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-03-2015 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kurt23x
I honestly don't see any other options than this, but I'm open to other suggestions if anyone thinks they have a better approach to the hand than this.
What fold equity do you think we have?
What fold equity do you think we need to make a shove justified here?

Personally, I think we have about 30-35% FE. It is close but it seems +EV to shove no?
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-06-2015 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wager9
What fold equity do you think we have?
What fold equity do you think we need to make a shove justified here?

Personally, I think we have about 30-35% FE. It is close but it seems +EV to shove no?
Ur deep enough to not shove at his point imo, seems spewy, although u would get him off aq, aj, and similar. But i just call.

Sent from my LG-LS970 using 2+2 Forums
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-07-2015 , 07:47 AM
What size did you open for. That seems like a really large 3b, especially from the sb position, think I just fold pre. There are not a lot of fistpump flops.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-07-2015 , 10:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wager9
Personally, I think we have about 30-35% FE. It is close but it seems +EV to shove no?
as V, i would snap this off with Kx, TT+ . If you jam here, you rep a multi, not a made hand.

peel one and hope to run like god with a 9/A turn or see V shut down an unlikely 3bet/lead bluff attempt.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-07-2015 , 11:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ozmosis313
What size did you open for. That seems like a really large 3b, especially from the sb position, think I just fold pre. There are not a lot of fistpump flops.
I raised to 800. He re-popped to 2400.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-08-2015 , 02:23 AM
I'd just call otf. I cant see me folding and getting such good odds, decent hand with good chances of stacking him up.

By how he played it, he might have a set of Ks or 10s, and its slowly bulding the pot to set you for an AI bet in future streets. And i would have folded pf to the reraise.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-08-2015 , 04:25 PM
Depending on the player, I would read this as AK trying to induce and shove on you, or he is making a blocker with something like AQ/AJhh. It's also possible he bricked with something like AQ/99 and is hoping you have a small pair and will go away.

I think I flat and see the turn here. The price is clearly right and if you raise and he has a heart draw, he may decide to go for it and have you crushed. If you hit a safe straight, get it in, if you brick and he checks it to you, I think I make a move at the pot in that scenario also. If a heart that completes your straight comes, I try to get to showdown cheaply. That is a soulread spot though, because I can easily put 2 hearts in his range here.


With all that said, I think a fold pre would have been a better play given your spot and how active you have been. There is a good chance if he has a big hand he will call a bluff, and this doesn't seem like a good spot this shallow. It's definitely a high risk/high reward spot though, so if that's your style, this hand has a lot of potential.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote
03-09-2015 , 11:38 AM
Call.
AI Decision for Tourney Life - Does Fold Equity Justify a Shove Here? Quote

      
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