$1500 live event, 351 runners, 35 remaining, itm, $104K up top.
Hero 19BB in CO with 9c9s
Just moved to table, no reads
15-25BB stacks behind
Hero raise to 2.2BB, BB defends. Reads are he's slightly weak.
Can profitably shove, but prefer raise/call and take a punt vv great reshove stack sizes? Thoughts?
Flop J83 two spades.
Possibly a check-back spot but elect to bet 2.3BB
I'm still not sure about this, but seeking value and a little 2017 equity denial.
BB calls
When we bet flop, are we doing it as a bluff or for value? We have 99 which blocks our opponent having an up and down draw, plus a spade which blocks flush draws. So when we bet, what are we expecting to get called by? A couple of flush draw combos and Jx?
As played I'm always checking back turn as there's even less reason to bet at that point.
c-bet is for value against most of his defend range
Edit; We have blockers, sure, but there's 8x, 79 7T 9T, smaller pairs and Ax combos that will see either equity or SDV against an LP raise and single cbet. imo much value to be had. i'll routinely check back 8x in this spot for all the usual reasons, but 99 has little chance to improve and it may be better to get value here on the flop. however, there may be better arguments against that I hadn't considered, hence the OP.
Turn is a check back. tired mind explosion irl, but i know it's a check back.
Flop might be a raise or jam. curious as to what regs do here, readless but late stages.
Check behind on river too. Will probably fold river to a bet if we miss but this is a live read situation.
Agreed
No need to jam this preflop in a live setting.
"Equity denial" on flop seems standard to me.
Betting turn would basically be close to a bluff.
River you need to put on your souldreading glasses unfortunately... But if we check flop to avoid getting us in that spot, we will basically have the same decision later on against a lot of villains, except that we didn't make villain pay to put us in that spot.
Baluga said there are two schools about cbetting or not second pairs. I'm on the betting side, 99 is vulnarable, you're against BB who prolly has a wide range, you get value from 8x, floats, may be strong Ax, you avoid guessing games on Q, K, A turn.
BUT, if you think villain is capable of c/shoving some hands like QTo, 9To, FDs... and not c/calling often generally speaking, then checking flop is better cause b/f and b/c are both annoying.
Now check turn.
Yea I think this is very much the correct play. I see so many check-raise all ins with flush draws and 15-20bb stacks that playing a solid value hand a little more trappy seems more profitable. If a spade hits and he bets turn/river you can comfortably call one bet and let the river go.
