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77 with 24bb in SB...

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05-25-2017 , 08:58 AM

SickSense666

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 61

Hi guys,

I am really not sure how to play this hand...I called but I am going to be in so much trouble on sooooo many flop. Shove is a little bit too risky with Villain in early-mid position? Thanks for sharing your opinions !!!

Villain is playing 22/22/25 but I only have 9 hands on him.

We are already in the money.

Poker Stars, $20 Buy-in (500/1,000 blinds, 100 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37737723

MP1: 99,747 (99.7 bb)
MP2: 42,895 (42.9 bb)
MP3: 54,328 (54.3 bb)
CO: 50,300 (50.3 bb)
BTN: 11,907 (11.9 bb)
Hero (SB): 23,612 (23.6 bb)
BB: 18,962 (19 bb)
UTG+2: 62,120 (62.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 7

2 folds, MP2 raises to 2,000, 3 folds, Hero calls 1,500, BB folds

Flop: (5,800) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets 2,100, Hero folds

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

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05-25-2017 , 11:44 AM

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

I think I shove. Granted he is opening from middle position, but his stats (as small a sample as it is) indicate he is opening a tad more than typical middle position opens. I look for players opening <20% to 3 bet light and it appears he could be one of those targets.

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05-25-2017 , 12:53 PM

SickSense666

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 61

I agree he is opening slightly lighter, do you see any value in calling? Shoving just seems a bit disgusting to me as I still have 23bb and only a pair of 7.... and yeah I don't see a reason to fold. I guess the best option is shoving but it should definately be player dependent. Not sure, can we have more views

???

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05-25-2017 , 05:14 PM

Mr.Slip

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 143

Shove or fold.. my gut reaction would be to fold, as you've got 23BB and get the button next....

guess it all depends what range you put the villian on... bet a lot of it contains an ace or king, so the flop bakes you...

calling sucks for the very reason that you already stated (too many flops will contain 2 overcards) and leave you in the exact position you got in postflop..

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05-25-2017 , 08:05 PM

cicakman

banned

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 9,229

Fine as played

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05-25-2017 , 10:54 PM

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjpregler

If we're check-raising 77 here, where does that fit into our overall check-raising range? I assume 77 is a bluff, so what hands are we check-raising for value?

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05-25-2017 , 11:50 PM

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpgiro

If we're check-raising 77 here, where does that fit into our overall check-raising range? I assume 77 is a bluff, so what hands are we check-raising for value?

He means shove preflop. Obviously, c/f this flop as played.

IMO preflop is close between push and call.

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05-26-2017 , 04:07 AM

SickSense666

enthusiast

Join Date: Apr 2017 Posts: 61

No straight answer Heu? Some of you prefer a call, shove or even folding is one of the suggestions..mmmmm. Slight preference for shoving though

Really seems that our decision has to do with the range we perceive Villain to have.

I'm obv speaking about my pre-flop decision.

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05-26-2017 , 09:50 AM

nomalice

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,653

shove>fold>flat . flatting 77 from sb w 24bb cant be good in no circumstances imo

Sent from my MI 5 using Tapatalk

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05-26-2017 , 10:01 AM

#10

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

He means shove preflop. Obviously, c/f this flop as played.

IMO preflop is close between push and call.

That makes way more sense. Thought for a second there was some sick range merging strategy on these boards with third pair that I wasn't aware of.

This is obscenely close. I think in real time I probably call here. I'm not getting ideal odds to set mine, but I also don't think I'm getting folds 70-75% of the time to make my shove +EV. But I don't think a rejam is bad because our stack-to-pot ratio is such that it is within the reasonable range for shoving.

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05-26-2017 , 10:15 AM

#11

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpgiro

This is obscenely close. I think in real time I probably call here. I'm not getting ideal odds to set mine, but I also don't think I'm getting folds 70-75% of the time to make my shove +EV. But I don't think a rejam is bad because our stack-to-pot ratio is such that it is within the reasonable range for shoving.

You don't need 70% folds for a jam to be profitable. It is cEV+ with 40% folds. You pick up more when you resteal than you lose on average when called.

If you flat call pre, you aren't just set mining, but you are folding this flop. Calling with 22 would be really bad.

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05-26-2017 , 10:21 AM

#12

Jkpoker10

veteran

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 2,983

Quote:

Originally Posted by SickSense666

2 folds, MP2 raises to 2,000, 3 folds, Hero calls 1,500, BB folds

Flop: (5,800) 3

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets 2,100, Hero folds

Spoiler:

Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.

When you just flat, you are set mining and not getting right price. Opponent is prolly cbetting close to 100% here so I like piling more than calling. Calling and having to guess after seeing a flop is not profitable long term. I just ship pre and how he folds. Flipping or getting a flip situations is fine here.

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05-26-2017 , 11:13 AM

#13

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

I ran this through redchip's fold equity calculator, using the following conditions:

https://redchippoker.com/fold-equity-calculator/

Pot size before we shove = 4300
How much we have to call = 1500 (since we already have 500 in pot)
How much we are shoving total = 23112
Estimated percent equity when called = 31% (assuming we're up against 99+,AQs+,AKo if we get called)

Using those calculations, it says we need to get 65% folds for our shove to be breakeven. (so I was a bit off)

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05-26-2017 , 12:25 PM

#14

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpgiro

If you ran his call range at 4.5% and we were already running the assumption he is 20% or maybe a tad more, then we are getting 75% fold equity.

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05-26-2017 , 12:37 PM

#15

jpgiro

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 1,439

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjpregler

If you ran his call range at 4.5% and we were already running the assumption he is 20% or maybe a tad more, then we are getting 75% fold equity.

With a 9 hand sample it's almost impossible to make that assumption.

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05-26-2017 , 01:03 PM

#16

WorldResident

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2017 Posts: 104

As mentioned before. You can't use such a small sample to make a decision. Flatting 77 is bad because you are basically set mining without the right odds. Not even mentioning you are out of position.

If I am making a decision like this I like to Sharkscope villain first. If he is a fish he will easily make errors when you shove. If you have no further information I would look at his stack. He has 43 bbs so he has the possibility to open a wide range of hands. Hence I would make the shove.

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05-26-2017 , 04:50 PM

#17

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

If he is opening 20%, you can't construct a calling range where pushing 77 isn't profitable. 77 is a slight favorite versus a 20% range, so if he is calling 100%, you pick up about 1.5xBB on average with big risk. You pick up more than that on average against a resonable calling range. 99+/AQs+ is too tight, but you do great if he calls that infrequently.

Flat calling can't be evaluated as easily mathematically. I am pretty sure it is profitable, but maybe not as good as pushing.

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05-26-2017 , 09:07 PM

#18

jjpregler

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 1,974

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

Flat calling can't be evaluated as easily mathematically. I am pretty sure it is profitable, but maybe not as good as pushing.

The problem I have with flatting is playing post flop is going to difficult at best and you are going to end up folding away equity unless OP hits a set. I think it will be more likely to call, miss his set and fail to fully realize his equity because he is going to be put in a position of just trying to guess when facing post flop bets.

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05-27-2017 , 01:19 AM

#19

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

call pre camp

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05-28-2017 , 11:44 PM

#20

Snomys27

newbie

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 48

. It's definitely a marginal spot, there's merit in every option. But as others previously stated your immediate odds aren't good for a flat (implied odds aren't helpful here because you have no data on the guy). As for me personally 23bb's is far to much to be jamming to a raise in MP. I would need solid data to make that decision.

Fold. Hindsight 20/20

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05-28-2017 , 11:48 PM

#21

nonsimplesimon

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 10,011

Quote:

Originally Posted by cicakman

Fine as played

Quote:

Originally Posted by wowsooooted

call pre camp

These

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