Quote:
Originally Posted by Paklu
I mean FISH could fold 66,77,99 or even weak T after third barrel as well as AQ or AK if they would call 2 with those. Obviously most people commenting this would decide OTT whether they call river with those hands. This needs more specific reads.
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Ok, lets think about his range:
If we check river behind the range our sdv beats is TINY... and my assumption that there`s pretty wide range of weak hands in his range which he`s proceeding with in c/c-mode trying to improve or get cheap sd.
Few hands are really improved on that runout, which makes me think jamming river is more +ev play than checking behind.
Jamming is good for some reasons beyond just his range consideration.
If I check river behind I`ll win pot just like 15-20% of times.
Board: 8c Tc 2d 3s 5s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0:
17.258% 13.00% 04.26% 165 54.00 { AJo }
Hand 1: 82.742% 78.49% 04.26% 996 54.00 { 99, 77-66, 44, AJs+, A8s, KcQc, KcJc, QJs, 98s, 87s, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo+, A8o, QJo, 98o, 87o }
And I need him to fold 42% of times to a shove to br-even with it.
Since 20% of times when we have "better" or chops he`s mostly folding (for his own sake obv) then I really need him to fold 25% more of his rubbish range to make jamming better checking better.