Big Stack is a good reg, and is playing how you would expect somone with his CL to be playing. At final table he is playing about 35/31 with 28 3bet(been even more aggro tho since going from 200k->500k)

Payouts:
8400
6300
4400
3000
2200
1600

A couple thoughts, he 3 bet me like two hands earlier(I raised JTss blind v blind, and folded to a 3bet) I def expect him to expect me to tighten up, so I am obv a good person to 3 bet light(basically the only person he can 3 bet light). I do think there is some fold equity, but hes probably calling with 22+ A8s+ KJs+. Never really did this whole ICM math, but just interested in what peoples initial thoughts re and what ICM says.

[converted_hand][hand_history]Merge, $10 Buy-in (3,000/6,000 blinds, 600 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #11796242

SB: 67,190 (11.2 bb)
BB: 73,261 (12.2 bb)
UTG: 41,803 (7 bb)
MP: 70,800 (11.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 141,518 (23.6 bb)
BTN: 558,428 (93.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
2 folds, Hero raises to 12,000, BTN raises to 27,500, 2 folds, Hero?

Well first off I don't really think he 3bet calls 44 and A9 he probably just shoves those, no? I mean it only really makes sense for him to 3b/f air and 3b/c his strong hands and nothing in between. With that being said im not an ICM expert but I wouldn't fold this hand and if I was inclined to fold it to a 3bet I think shoving pre is a better option

Well about calling 44, he already won the largest part of his stack 3b/calling 55 BTNvSB, BTN had AK and 55 held. I was just trying to extrapolate his range from that.

bump

i really don't think he's calling that wide. i eff you shove in-game but could be convinced to fold on paper

Hard not to cram here. AQs should be ahead of his range; and if winning then we are #2 with almost 50bigs and we can put pressure on the other playas who run possibly scared.

Its like from 1.6 -> 6.3k with 55/45 odds :P

Disclaimer: i sux at icm, but i am recreational, so i dont care xaxaxaxaaaa

he knows he puts you in a terrible spot with stack sizes by 3-betting you here. Shove here as you are way too far ahead of his range given stats and dynamics to worry about ICM in this particular spot. I don't think he is calling as wide as you think since he knows you can't really 4-bet shove all that light in this spot unless you guys have enough history where he thinks you will get it in super wide.

pretty much have to shove imo. kinda sucks because a good player wont call you with worse (maybe ajs and flips) but his 3bet range here should be huge and youre picking up like 25% of your stack

if you don't think you can get it in vs his 3bet with AQs here, just open shove

(given your description, raise/get in >> open shove)

U can never call a reshove when u open (do the math) so openshove or openfold pre
As played prolly shove

with the previous info im shoving.

He can 3-bet u with any 2 cards in this spot, because of ICM. 4-bet not only looks strong here, most of the time it is strong. His calling range is going to be much tighter in this spot.

I'm allin. Given the situation he should - 3b shove stuff like 44/A5s and similar, 3b/call like 99+/AQs+ and 3bet/fold everything else. He's likely not there, but still should be 3betting a **** ton, so def shove

What do you think about limping?

If we fold, our stack is worth $3119.52
It we shove and BTN folds, our stack is worth $3624.63
If we shove, BTN calls and we lose, our stack is worth $0
If we shove, BTN calls and we win, our stack is worth $4397.33

So, a few breakeven values are:


Villain folds 50% of the time, we need 60% equity vs his range
Villain folds 60% of the time, we need 54% equity vs his range
Villain folds 70% of the time, we need 45% equity vs his range

Also of note, had villain shoved, we would need 70.9% equity vs his range to break even (this is also the equity we need if he always calls our shove as well).

So, having said all that, it somewhat concerns me that villain didn't shove, if he is really bluffing and understands that we understand ICM, he should be shoving anything that he wants to r/f instead. But, if he isn't trying to ICM **** us (and we have no read that he is 3-bet shoving alot), then I think we can shove, as he is going to have a hard time calling us 60% of the time with us having less than 54% equity.