Forgot to mention I'm assuming BB Shoves relatively tight (7.7%) if hero folds, and that BUT calls BB shove somewhat tight (2.1%) because of extremely deep stacks. I don't know ICMizer well enough to simulate scenarios where BB makes a raise smaller than a shove (if that is even possible), so keep that in mind when applying these numbers. Since it is less likely one of the other (100BB deep) players will be going broke in this hand than the simulation assumes, we have a third reason why hero may want to shove slightly lighter than the results.
Scenario 2 Only change is that BUT calls hero shove lighter
BUT 4x Open Range = QQ-22,A5s+,A9o+,KT+,QJ (17%)
BB Calls Hero = 99+,AJs+,AQo (5.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = QQ-55,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo,QJs (12%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)
Hero should still be shoving 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (5.9%) and AJo is now rated as a break-even shove. 77 (-0.04%) and 66 (-0.11%) become worse shoves and 55 (-0.19%) is much worse when BUT calls looser. In fact, every single hand that ICMizer does not want to shove has significantly worse ICM EV than before, due to less fold equity. However, the shovable hands (aside from 88 which went from +0.07 to +0.05%) all have significantly improved expectation when BUT calls lighter.
Scenario 3 More or less worst case scenario
BUT 4x Open Range = 77+,ATs+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QJs (9.4%)
BB Calls Hero = 88+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs (7.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = 88+,ATs+,AJo+,KQ (8.3%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)
When BUT 4x opens much tighter, has all big pairs in range, and calls ~90% of opening range, while BB calls Hero shove 2% more often, ICMizer wants to shove only JJ+,AK (3.0%). AQs (-0.01%) is almost breakeven and TT (-0.04%) is the next best shove. Aside from AQo (-0.11%) and 99 (-0.23%) all other hands are losing >0.3% ICM EV. One interesting sidenote is that 77-22 run very close in equity (-0.45 to -0.52%).
Scenario 4 Dream Scenario
BUT 4x Open Range = 22+, A2+,K2s+,K8o+,Q7s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T8o+,96s+,9 8o,85s+,87o,75s+,64s+,54s (43.3%)
BB Calls Hero = 99+,AJs+,AQo (5.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = 22+,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo,QJs (13%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)
If BUT will 4x with all but his weakest opens (perhaps having noticed that sizing gets a lot more folds), but does not adjust his calling range appropriately, hero can shove much wider at 22+,A2+,K9s+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+,T9s (26.1%). However, QJo,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s and A2o-A6o (aside from A5o) are all rated at +0.01% EV and may want to be folded. Hero can shove 20.36% of hands comfortably, assuming these very favorable conditions.
Conclusions
I think we can more or less ignore scenario 3 and 4, but I wanted to include them to give a more complete picture of the possibilities. I think a good argument could be made for both shoving or folding the marginal hands like 77, AJo, ATs and KQs. You're pretty deep at 32bb despite having a much smaller stack than the other players, so if you feel they are likely to make mistakes and/or accept more risk than optimal despite your short stack, I think the marginal hands should all be folded. That being said, I think I am shoving all of them as a standard.
It is possible that BUT 4x range is quite different than I assumed, but I played around with a few similar ones and the results were roughly the same. If you expect BB to call your shove wider, the marginal hands (and probably 88/AJs) should all be folded, but it is hard (and likely incorrect) for BB to commit a third of his chips light with a similar stack behind, despite being incentivized by your bounty.
TLDR: Shove 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (5.9%) and consider shoving 77,AJo,ATs,KQs.
Last edited by Sheep4ker; 07-15-2017 at 01:38 PM.