as hh converter wont open ( http://prntscr.com/fu3jgp ) i ll post it like this :





guy had btn pfr around 70, and he opened 6,7 times 3.9x like this, but we folded every time so I never saw his hand. whats your GII range in this spot ?

i have around 600e on my head

you can wait for better spot vs huge fish
If he won't fold overcards it probably isn't even +$ev

He has 2 sizings right?

Vs a maniac i would have a slightly tighter range than normal.

#THEPROCESS

yup. he wasnt classic bounty hunter, earlier on the ft he folded few times when he opened (altough normal sized open) vs 15-20bbs reshoves while he had them covered.

what range ?


guy wasnt a maniac, havent saw anything so much out of line. a credible fish who watches twitch,not standard spewtard for sure. my problem with hand is that i couldnt range him good when he opens 4x

I tend to assume decent rec players use larger size with strong hands that feel vulnerable. They tend to overvalue protection so, with no showdown info, I usually expect low/middle pairs and strong Aces that want to make sure people pay a lot for the chance to outflop them. 3 handed they could be a lot wider but I'd need to have a feel for game flow and recent ratio of large to small opens to have any opinion on that.

32bb is so awkward facing a 4x. How has he played postflop? Do you have a flatting range here?

I'd probably sigh GII w/ 77 and AJ but I'm not in front of my PC so I haven't played around with software on this. If he's using this size for most of his recent button opens then you could probably go w/ 66 and ATs/KQs. You're making a ton on fold equity if he's ever folding after ~4x open, so considering he folds tighter than typical bounty hunter, I might be tempted to go with 55.

I was lying in bed last night when I posted so analysis was meh. Was curious about this spot because I've not put enough work in to analyze spots vs. non-regs/weird ranges. So I'm messing around with ICMizer for a few potential ranges.

I'm using 1st= 20%, 2= 11.87%, 3= 8.33% payouts. This is completely made up but I wanted to reflect the increased value of 1st because of winning own bounty. In reality these artificial payouts probably still overvalue 2nd and undervalue 1st, so results may be slightly tighter than optimal, but it should be close. I also can't account for the increased likelihood of future bounties by doubling hero's stack, another reason to consider shoving a little lighter than results.

Assumptions: 1) Hero can only push or fold, 2) BB can flat hero shove or reshove, but can not make a raise smaller than All-in regardless of Hero action.

Scenario 1
BUT 4x Open Range = QQ-22,A5s+,A9o+,KT+,QJ (17.04%)
BB Calls Hero = 99+,AJs+,AQo (5.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = QQ-77, ATs+,AJo,KJs+,KQo (8.1%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)

In this scenario ICMIZER says 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (5.9%) for hero shove. 77 and AJo are each -0.03% ICM EV, ATs is -0.07%, 55 is -0.08%. I was somewhat surprised to see KQs as the best losing shove at -0.02%. I also found it interesting that, aside from KQo (-0.09%), 22 is a better shove (-0.11%) than any other non paired hand. Also interesting to see A5s has same EV as ATo at -0.14%.

I'm working through other BUT ranges and post-shove responses but it's taking longer to post than I expected so I'll put it up tomorrow.

Forgot to mention I'm assuming BB Shoves relatively tight (7.7%) if hero folds, and that BUT calls BB shove somewhat tight (2.1%) because of extremely deep stacks. I don't know ICMizer well enough to simulate scenarios where BB makes a raise smaller than a shove (if that is even possible), so keep that in mind when applying these numbers. Since it is less likely one of the other (100BB deep) players will be going broke in this hand than the simulation assumes, we have a third reason why hero may want to shove slightly lighter than the results.


Scenario 2 Only change is that BUT calls hero shove lighter

BUT 4x Open Range = QQ-22,A5s+,A9o+,KT+,QJ (17%)
BB Calls Hero = 99+,AJs+,AQo (5.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = QQ-55,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo,QJs (12%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)

Hero should still be shoving 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (5.9%) and AJo is now rated as a break-even shove. 77 (-0.04%) and 66 (-0.11%) become worse shoves and 55 (-0.19%) is much worse when BUT calls looser. In fact, every single hand that ICMizer does not want to shove has significantly worse ICM EV than before, due to less fold equity. However, the shovable hands (aside from 88 which went from +0.07 to +0.05%) all have significantly improved expectation when BUT calls lighter.

Scenario 3 More or less worst case scenario

BUT 4x Open Range = 77+,ATs+,AJo+,KJs+,KQo,QJs (9.4%)
BB Calls Hero = 88+,ATs+,AJo+,KQs (7.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = 88+,ATs+,AJo+,KQ (8.3%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)

When BUT 4x opens much tighter, has all big pairs in range, and calls ~90% of opening range, while BB calls Hero shove 2% more often, ICMizer wants to shove only JJ+,AK (3.0%). AQs (-0.01%) is almost breakeven and TT (-0.04%) is the next best shove. Aside from AQo (-0.11%) and 99 (-0.23%) all other hands are losing >0.3% ICM EV. One interesting sidenote is that 77-22 run very close in equity (-0.45 to -0.52%).

Scenario 4 Dream Scenario

BUT 4x Open Range = 22+, A2+,K2s+,K8o+,Q7s+,Q9o+,J7s+,J9o+,T7s+,T8o+,96s+,9 8o,85s+,87o,75s+,64s+,54s (43.3%)
BB Calls Hero = 99+,AJs+,AQo (5.4%)
BUT Calls Hero = 22+,A8s+,ATo+,KTs+,KJo,QJs (13%)
If BB calls Hero or shoves BUT overcalls w/ only QQ/AK (1.7%)

If BUT will 4x with all but his weakest opens (perhaps having noticed that sizing gets a lot more folds), but does not adjust his calling range appropriately, hero can shove much wider at 22+,A2+,K9s+,KJo+,Q9s+,QJo,J9s+,T9s (26.1%). However, QJo,K9s,Q9s,J9s,T9s and A2o-A6o (aside from A5o) are all rated at +0.01% EV and may want to be folded. Hero can shove 20.36% of hands comfortably, assuming these very favorable conditions.

Conclusions
I think we can more or less ignore scenario 3 and 4, but I wanted to include them to give a more complete picture of the possibilities. I think a good argument could be made for both shoving or folding the marginal hands like 77, AJo, ATs and KQs. You're pretty deep at 32bb despite having a much smaller stack than the other players, so if you feel they are likely to make mistakes and/or accept more risk than optimal despite your short stack, I think the marginal hands should all be folded. That being said, I think I am shoving all of them as a standard.

It is possible that BUT 4x range is quite different than I assumed, but I played around with a few similar ones and the results were roughly the same. If you expect BB to call your shove wider, the marginal hands (and probably 88/AJs) should all be folded, but it is hard (and likely incorrect) for BB to commit a third of his chips light with a similar stack behind, despite being incentivized by your bounty.

TLDR: Shove 88+,AJs+,AQo+ (5.9%) and consider shoving 77,AJo,ATs,KQs.

Really good work @Sheep4ker


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