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Midstakes MTT Discussion and analysis of midstakes MTT strategy

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Old 06-28-2012, 10:00 PM   #1
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$50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

vill1 calling from the hj is a good reg 16/12/5 3bet over 1.4k hands
Sb is also another but he is not very aggresive 15/11/6 over 2k hands

What is my best line here in the flop? i can see most of his range like combo draws, maybe he flats JJ?
Should i 3bet/get it in given my assumptions?

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $50 Buy-in (400/800 blinds, 75 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13367232

BB: 13,103 (16.4 bb)
Hero (UTG+2): 64,015 (80 bb)
MP1: 29,795 (37.2 bb)
MP2: 40,162 (50.2 bb)
MP3: 80,887 (101.1 bb)
CO: 28,975 (36.2 bb)
BTN: 26,168 (32.7 bb)
SB: 25,896 (32.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+2 with A Q
Hero raises to 1,600, 2 folds, MP3 calls 1,600, 2 folds, SB calls 1,200, BB folds

Flop: (6,200) J 7 A (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets 3,100, MP3 raises to 8,000, SB fold, Hero ?????
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Old 06-28-2012, 10:06 PM   #2
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

just look at his flop raise %. Pretty sure this is a fold but if it's 10 or less just muck it.
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Old 06-28-2012, 10:41 PM   #3
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

he fold to cbet 57% and raise cbet 10%
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Old 06-28-2012, 11:32 PM   #4
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

Quote:
Originally Posted by g3r4rd0x View Post
he fold to cbet 57% and raise cbet 10%
57% is pretty high, yeah I'm 100% sure we should b/f our hand here.
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Old 06-29-2012, 04:23 AM   #5
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

against a good player b/f works imo. its gottobe a fd+something else (like kqcc, 98cc,qjcc) at minimum.
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Old 06-29-2012, 05:52 AM   #6
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

We are too deep to b/3b get it in and if we call we just gonna have to c/f on majority of turns so probably b/f is best.

But by b/f we give up a ton of equity and often fold the best hand so maybe if we expect to get raised alot not cbetting is an option? (not sth i would do but just a thought)
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Old 06-29-2012, 07:43 AM   #7
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

check calling sucks ass imo - categorically
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Old 06-29-2012, 09:06 AM   #8
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

Half pot otf is too much for me. Now its too bloated to flat. 2222
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Old 06-29-2012, 10:43 AM   #9
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

when people raise 10%, it is pretty much 2p or better. Given the fact that he raised with a player left to act makes this a really easy fold imo.
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Old 06-29-2012, 11:01 AM   #10
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

yeah seems like a pretty straightforward fold

oop..guessing future streets..no worse value hands..etc etc
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Old 06-29-2012, 12:48 PM   #11
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Re: $50 TP in drawheavy flop vs reg

fold. not many draws in a 16/12 villains range on this flop. maybe KQss but im not sure he even raises that otf.

you're looking at 77/JJ/AJ much more often than a hand you beat. possibly AK if he decided to flat it pf.
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