[converted_hand][hand_history]IPoker, $4.55 Buy-in (700/1,400 blinds, 140 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
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SB: 70,186 (50.1 bb)
BB: 49,063 (35 bb)
MP1: 34,796 (24.9 bb)
MP2: 16,300 (11.6 bb)
MP3: 20,288 (14.5 bb)
Hero (CO): 46,685 (33.3 bb)
BTN: 37,588 (26.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J J
3 folds, Hero raises to 3,500, 2 folds, BB calls 2,100

Flop: (8,680) 4 6 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 4,340, BB calls 4,340

Turn: (17,360) 3 (2 players)
BB bets 8,680, Hero calls 8,680

River: (34,720) 6 (2 players)
BB bets 24,304, [color="grey"]Hero

Villain is play very lag, prob losing player. Near the money bubble.

34/22/ 153b, 5.5 agg over 51 hands

fold.

turn call is good.

He clearly likes his hand - likely not a bluff ... But is he dumb enough to be doing this with 77-TT?

He's definitely seems dumb enough and spastic enough to play those hands like that postflop if he has them in his range, that's not to say he doesn't play them some other way like raising pre or donking straight out on flop. you can never really know what these guys are thinking.

Seems like the guy is on heater/running over people and he snap bet out on the turn. The real problem here is I have a snug pretty tight image at the time and he is playing any two cards imo, It doesn't take a genius to know that this is a horrid turn card for my range.

I can't get in this guys mind though...it's impossible he's basing his decisions on a magic 8ball. Against 89% of field it seems like a trivial fold; but; Part of me feels he can easily just have air and knows I cannot stand the heat on this board with anything I raised up pre. So I wouldn't be shocked to see stuff like 78,79, a7-aj, k10,kj type stuff or even a counterfeit 23ss,34ss type stuff, and just be expecting to push a fold through/run over me on the bubble.

On the other hand he can very easily have any part of this board and just be shoveling chips in the middle for phat value thinking I can never fold an overpair. It's impossible to really know.

I've seen myself a lot of time in this position agaisnt dumb players, its really dificult to give them a range.

If he's that dumb i dont think your image and the turn card matters to him.

IF he is a dumb player it's a clearest fold in the world, since he is too stupid to bluff there and any imaginable card combo that he connected with the flop and would have played that way has you beat.

Unless you have a sound reason to believe that he has 42 and is mad because board paired.

On the other hand, he could have a worse pp and could be betting to protect from all kinds of draws... Maybe a random float with something like QJs.

I would call at least one more street and then decide on the river. I think given his stats he will show up with random garbage more often than not.

I'd fold otr.

I doubt he's bluffing for two reasons. The first is that villain would have to have floated you OOP with air otf. Maybe this player is more capable of this than your average player, but near the bubble I still think it's still unlikely. The other reason is if you believe he's not a good player then he's likely not anticipating what cards can come that are good to bluff. So his snap-lead ott looks more like he saw straight away a card he liked. If he was able to recognize that a card came which would be good to bluff then it likely would have taken him that little bit longer to process and recognize the spot.

Are we calling turn hoping he slows down on the river? If not what rivers are we stacking off on? Could this possibly be a fold on the turn?

His donk bet is kinda weird if he has a straight, I think he'd just let you continue betting - but I suppose he may think it'll go check check. As you said, it's really hard putting these guys on a range. That said, I don't think he's ever doing this with an overpair.

Well played sir

I don't know what else to call down, but I really don't like calling with JJ, anyone good is probably betting turn and river and our hand can't take that heat.

Agreed.
Still can be a gto call w/o specific reads/ timing tells vs people who vb narrow nutted range otr. One of best overpair combo to call it off.

Generally it seems two things matters here:
- does he lead or check his 1p 6x ott?
- does he turn 4x, 2x, w/e else pairs otr in a bluff

fold turn?

I mean obv that was the hope. I think maybe I should fold turn, but I thought he may just take one shot and give up if I call.

Really confused about this hand, I can't see him defending too many 5x combinations, just 55/a5s/56s/45s. I need to go into my db and filter for turn donkbets i guess..

I´ll just fold ott and don´t worry to much