Payouts are 957, 646, 460, 331, 245, 195, 147, 116, 94.

Preflop, I can obviously shove, but I thought I was just slightly too deep to do that. I get a great flop and because I only need two streets to get it in, decide to take a delayed c-bet line.

OTT, I'm put in a tough ICM spot. Obviously, it's super exploitable to fold, but I don't know if it's in the repertoire of most midstakes players to put ICM pressure on you here with hand like 98 or XcYc.

Villain is a small winner at $48ABI over 200 game sample. Villain's been open-limping a fair bit. Haven't noticed anything unusual about his post-flop game in brief history (didn't strike me as fishy or really good).

http://www.cardrunners.com/pokertool...534541/replay/

something's wrong

Think not betting the flop is really bad imho. The guy called a 3bet from you from the blinds. It's not about only needing 2 streets to get it in. whish you showed it in another way without results but I'm not being results oriented would say that anyways. People flat tone of broadway hands AND worse aces in this spot preflop. Other than that he can have a lot of pocketpairs so your just giving him a chance to checkback and freeroll you with all his weak pps to try to hit a set, or hit another broadway caurd and make two pair or a straight. Charge them and protect your hand imo. Besides the fact is your expected to be betting this board after 3b, looks more suspicious when you check, you prob get worse to valuebet but they would have called anyways not like your inducing any bluffs. Sometimes ax suited is going to pot control and checkback too so.. yea. get the value now.

Jam pre. As played, checking flop is pretty bad. At the same time, deciding to bet this turn card is just as bad. Would bet flop and check turn if anything, but I'm not taking either of these lines anyway. With 23bbs and 20% of your stack in the pot with the blinds and limpers, I'm sure it's fine to be jamming pre.

saying checking the flop is bad is so ro

jam pre
I think betting flop is better
call
enjoy $94

At first glance it seems like you can't really fold here after underepping your hand. But you make a good point. Someone with this stack size and happens to be limping and overlimping a lot pre doesn't seem very congruent with someone who is going to semibluff turns and apply maximum icm pressure on you. It's obvious when you open sb it's strong range.

check or cbet 1/4th of the pot seems standard here depending on villain...

as played the shove is ugly... but you can discount nuts sometimes + with redraws to 2pair or straight we could find a call!

feels fps and jam pre

I don't think you're too deep to shove pre. Vs one limp I'd agree, but with the second guy in there and almost 14k in the pot it seems worth it just to try and take it down (or get called by something stupid). As played I don't mind the flop check on such a dry board and I wouldn't fold the turn.

Checking the flop is bad indeed imo, and it's not ro.
Hands like weak Ax or Tx gonna pot control very often in 3bet pot.
Hands we want villain to bluff with are mostly gonna float when we cbet.
I'd rather cbet and then check a blank turn.

Bet calling turn is going to be a mistake, as is not leading flop.

yeah, i've come around to the view that bet/calling turn is a mistake.

but can you elaborate about flop? i would c-bet against smart opponent, but i thought against this particular player, i could let him pick up some fds, pairs, gutters etc on the turn, and he may call off more easily with worse Ax (or possibly even worse) if he thinks we're always c-betting AK.

Also that whole "needing only two streets to get it in" business will not come to fuition imo.
Let's look at the turn as played. Catagorizing him as this playertype, if he has pair+draws, or kk,qq, or 8c9c he is calling turn but you will be hard pressed to make any value on the river unless he improves his hand, so you will have only gotten one street and put yourself in a spot when he connects in position on the river.

With regards flop. It's like your giving the guy rope to hang himself. The problem with this is your describing someone with passive tendencies. The majority of his range will be absolutely thrilled to take a free card on this flop. Just because you think he is "not a good player" doesn't mean he is an idiot. Most players will sense something is up/fishy with this line you are taking, they don't have to be a great player. Generally I give people credit for being able to at least handread postflop if they somehow made their way to a final table, even if they have bad preflop tendencies. He's not going to suddenly go bonkers on future streets just because you checked flop.

true, but we let him perhaps improve a bit ott, and also it may be easier to get two streets vs. worse Ax ott and otr, then otf and ott (he might fold an ace if he perceives this line to be super strong), depending on runout.

You're raising from the SB in a limped pot so your range is really strong anyway. If they're calling your raise still then it's safe to assume they are going to play really honestly post flop, betting top pair and checking mid pair and gut shots. So leading is going to be a much stronger play than checking.

If they are checking the flop, then it's safe to assume they won't have top pair that often and aren't going to spazz out over a turn lead considering the strength you showed pre flop. Any turn where you do get raised, you have to consider what hands now outdrew you.

When he flats this amount pre, there is way more broadways, Ax, and PP than 67s-89s that could find a SD to get value from OTT imo.
And Ax are not going to fold at any moment of the hand anyway.

this

Jamm pre