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| Midstakes MTT Discussion and analysis of midstakes MTT strategy |
06-09-2012, 01:36 PM
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#1
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grinder
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 664
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$27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
so i was running around 26 22 over around 70 hands, villain was running 18 9 over 100 hands.. i have a 3 bet percentage of 10.4% and villain is running at 3.2%.. his 4 bet was 0 but over 100 hands i still think its not much but his prf is alarming!
anyways, what you doing here since he makes it so small? i am guessing call cause he have so good odds if he is holding AA/KK and we flop a set ... anyways i call. thoughts?
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $25 Buy-in (200/400 blinds, 40 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #13153261
BTN: 18,006 (45 bb)
SB: 26,478 (66.2 bb)
BB: 22,750 (56.9 bb)
UTG+1: 6,656 (16.6 bb)
UTG+2: 3,223 (8.1 bb)
MP1: 7,584 (19 bb)
MP2: 12,918 (32.3 bb)
Hero (MP3): 29,830 (74.6 bb)
CO: 3,655 (9.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q  Q 
3 folds, MP2 raises to 800, Hero raises to 1,899, 3 folds, BB raises to 3,460, MP2 folds, Hero calls 1,561
Flop: (8,280) J  3  8 (2 players)
BB bets 2,950 HERO?
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06-09-2012, 02:12 PM
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#2
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 5,367
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
his sizing doesn't feel like AK, if that makes sense. I think you should trust your read and fold flop especially with the J out there.
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06-10-2012, 05:06 AM
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#3
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Pooh-Bah
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 4,143
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
folding the flop sucks but with his pre sizing and no history that he gets out of line it seems like the best play.
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06-10-2012, 09:53 AM
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#4
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deviation of equilibrium
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Germany
Posts: 27,378
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
what about OR?
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06-10-2012, 11:39 AM
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#5
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old hand
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 1,447
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
i level myself in lots of spots, but since youve been 10% 3balling, its perfect for him to 4bet light here. folding rly sucks, but quess its right though.
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06-10-2012, 03:38 PM
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#6
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stranger
Join Date: Jun 2012
Location: North East, England
Posts: 6
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
I don't think calling is v.good. you might be faced with an even bigger decision on the turn, still not knowing if you're good.
I'd be interested in his 3bet fold rate, if it was high then I'd be inclined to 3Bet flop and look to see if I could take it down there and then, with a fold to any 4Bet or shove.
If his 3Bet fold rate was v.low or low then......  Call, see the turn and fold to a third barrel. You've got enough chips to grind it back up.
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06-11-2012, 02:00 AM
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#7
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old hand
Join Date: May 2012
Location: late reggae somewhere
Posts: 1,305
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
lol...your 3b% makes this quite an interesting hand. without seeing all the action prior, it's impossible to know whether this is fist-pump or snap fold spot.
V doesn't always have AA, KK, JJ here. He's often just making a stand against your barrage of 3b's. If you call, you might find he simply gives up.
it's a bit of a soul read spot. if you feel you've been getting in V's face quite a bit with your 3b action, then i'm 3b/c pre, calling flop and looking for any weakness - especially timing tells.
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06-11-2012, 03:26 PM
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#8
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grinder
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 664
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
furo OR raiser was basically an unknown too me, he was running like 27 13 over 60 odd hands with a 3% 3 bet and his 3 bet fold % was pretty low over a very small sample.
so most people saying fold flop, with very few saying too call flop? i felt raising flop would be just LOL bad but still only know the guy over 100 hands but seen him about before my hud and know he pretty nittish reg!
call flop and fold all Q turns ok line if he barrells big? i mean his price is so good especially if he does shut down on turn, but his bet sizing is pretty polarised i feel. and raising would be pretty bad. Thoughts?
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06-11-2012, 03:45 PM
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#9
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deviation of equilibrium
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Germany
Posts: 27,378
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
Quote:
Originally Posted by jayme87
furo OR raiser was basically an unknown too me, he was running like 27 13 over 60 odd hands with a 3% 3 bet and his 3 bet fold % was pretty low over a very small sample.
so most people saying fold flop, with very few saying too call flop? i felt raising flop would be just LOL bad but still only know the guy over 100 hands but seen him about before my hud and know he pretty nittish reg!
call flop and fold all Q turns ok line if he barrells big? i mean his price is so good especially if he does shut down on turn, but his bet sizing is pretty polarised i feel. and raising would be pretty bad. Thoughts?
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guess you can soulread fold flop > call flop&fold turn if your read is correct.
if his range is wider i kinda want to put another bet in preflop with your image > trying to get a TAGish player to commit his chips postflop
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06-11-2012, 03:50 PM
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#10
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grinder
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 664
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Re: $27 sat eliminator QQ against potential NIT REG..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaggle69
I don't think calling is v.good. you might be faced with an even bigger decision on the turn, still not knowing if you're good.
I'd be interested in his 3bet fold rate, if it was high then I'd be inclined to 3Bet flop and look to see if I could take it down there and then, with a fold to any 4Bet or shove.
If his 3Bet fold rate was v.low or low then......  Call, see the turn and fold to a third barrel. You've got enough chips to grind it back up.
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it was 0% over the 2 hands :/ call seems ok then u think? and fold too 3rd barrel then?
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