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10-29-2016 , 02:10 PM
PokerStars - 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP+1: 60.07 BB (VPIP: 17.11, PFR: 9.33, 3Bet Preflop: 8.11, Hands: 77)
MP+2: 30.52 BB (VPIP: 17.34, PFR: 13.58, 3Bet Preflop: 7.58, Hands: 175)
CO: 25.53 BB (VPIP: 16.48, PFR: 10.47, 3Bet Preflop: 5.41, Hands: 91)
BTN: 83.24 BB (VPIP: 19.12, PFR: 5.97, 3Bet Preflop: 3.33, Hands: 68)
SB: 27.78 BB (VPIP: 18.29, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 3.57, Hands: 165)
BB: 47.66 BB (VPIP: 36.84, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
Hero (UTG): 71.14 BB
UTG+1: 11.79 BB
MP: 62.09 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11)

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.67 BB) Hero has 8 8

Hero raises to 2.5 BB, fold, fold, fold, MP+2 raises to 30.39 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, SB calls 27.15 BB and is all-in,

HERO?

Last Hand of a flighted multi day 1 Italian MTT (ICOOP EV.1) with 250000 € guaranteed prize pool. Is it an easy fold or, since we want just big money it has sense to take a risk and call? What are v's ranges here, considering that it's the end of the day and there will be other day 1s? Thanks everyone!
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10-29-2016 , 03:21 PM
More flips then a gymnast


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10-31-2016 , 12:31 AM
I think this is a pretty easy fold, especially given SB's cold call. Neither of them have maniac stats.
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10-31-2016 , 12:41 AM
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Originally Posted by hitchens97
I think this is a pretty easy fold, especially given SB's cold call. Neither of them have maniac stats.
Thank you
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10-31-2016 , 06:52 AM
OP, the questions you need to ask yourself are: what are the ranges I'm putting both villains on? You cannot just say "let's risk a flip" and hope for the best.
I think any reasonable range for MP+2 and SB will put your pair of 8s at a significant disavantage. Sure, if they both have AK, a call would have been great, but that's by far not the only scenario!

One thing I would add and that relates to the specific situation:
This is the last hand of a flighted tournament. But you have a very comfortable stack of 70BB, which is most probably above average.
It doesn't really make sense to take a high risk now. It would make sense if you're pretty short (like villains are, although 30BBs is not exactly short in a tournament situation) and you would want to either enter Day 2 with a good stack or be able to replay Day 1. Then you could elect to gamble a bit. But you have a good stack already! No reason to take risks that are EV-.
(The situation actually makes both villains' ranges weaker than in a normal spot, but still way too strong to call beneficially imo)
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10-31-2016 , 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by scheier
OP, the questions you need to ask yourself are: what are the ranges I'm putting both villains on? You cannot just say "let's risk a flip" and hope for the best.
I think any reasonable range for MP+2 and SB will put your pair of 8s at a significant disavantage. Sure, if they both have AK, a call would have been great, but that's by far not the only scenario!

One thing I would add and that relates to the specific situation:
This is the last hand of a flighted tournament. But you have a very comfortable stack of 70BB, which is most probably above average.
It doesn't really make sense to take a high risk now. It would make sense if you're pretty short (like villains are, although 30BBs is not exactly short in a tournament situation) and you would want to either enter Day 2 with a good stack or be able to replay Day 1. Then you could elect to gamble a bit. But you have a good stack already! No reason to take risks that are EV-.
(The situation actually makes both villains' ranges weaker than in a normal spot, but still way too strong to call beneficially imo)
Thanks

Please consider that my doubt is due to the importance of playing a HUGE field day 2 with a deep stack, it would make me more comfortable. It would usually be an easy fold to me.

Anyway, I've put my hand against MP and BB's ranges on Equilab (I assigned them a tight range of AQ+/77-QQ (excluding AA and KK for MP since I think he would me more inclined to flat my openraise waiting for a push)... The results are:

UTG 27%
MP 35%
BB 38%...

Quite a gamble move to call here

But unfortunately, in this case, I decided to fold, seeing them with AKo and AQo and an 8 OTF giving me the best hand and a missed huge stack (I know, I don't have to be result oriented )
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10-31-2016 , 01:12 PM
I understand what you're trying to say here OP, but it was definitely right to fold!
But an EV- move is still an EV- move in this situation. If you were shorter than any of the other players, I could understand the urge to take a slightly negative gamble for the chance of a bigger stack or a new chance at a Day 1.
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10-31-2016 , 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by scheier
I understand what you're trying to say here OP, but it was definitely right to fold!
But an EV- move is still an EV- move in this situation. If you were shorter than any of the other players, I could understand the urge to take a slightly negative gamble for the chance of a bigger stack or a new chance at a Day 1.
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10-31-2016 , 05:36 PM
TT+ or JJ+ at a guess.
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10-31-2016 , 06:11 PM
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Originally Posted by gregz41
TT+ or JJ+ at a guess.
Considering that is last day 1 hand and that many guys don't want to play SS on day 2, I think ranges are slightly larger
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