Chipstacks : Myself 550k, Villain 1.1 M, Decent Player 580k, 2 Nits 300k, 250 k respectively
Blinds 30k-15k-0 (no ante)
Villain completes in SB, we check with Jc9d
Flop comes 9c7c5c
Villain leads 100k
We?
Do we have any other option than RIPPING here?
I know it is kind of an ICM disaster to go out in 5th when there are very weak short stacks, but given the payout structure we want to play for first place MONNIES.
Villain is fairly looser, but tbh his limping range can be ATC.
Anyway, the only hand I am really afraid of are Ac9x, Kc9x and Qc9x as well as the occasional QcQx which is not really likely. He could also call with Tc9x sometimes I reckon, and vs tp, sets and straights, LETS GO!
I'm definitely not jamming flop, don't you think vill's more-than-potsized-lead from OOP seems pretty strong? IMO, it's way too high-variance to jam the flop. I much prefer either flatting the flop and re-evaluating OTT, or just simply folding against the strong vill lead OTF since vill may just be jamming into us OTT.
We are in rough shape against vill's lead/calloff range here. Vills leading range is probably some made flushes/sets/2P/9X/semibluffs. Almost all those hands call our jam (other than the weaker 9x hands which are hands we desperately want to keep in), so we have almost no fold equity on our jam and our hand is in rough shape against that call-off range. This adds just to a pretty bad jamming spot for a final table.
And that doesn't even begin to include the ICM considerations (which would further reinforce the notion of passing on this high-variance shove).
From a mentality standpoint, I feel you are misapplying the "play to win" mentality and not balancing that well with the importance of ICM mentality. You want to look for ways to "play to win" without having to put your tourney life at risk (staying active with PFRs/cbets; shoving into smaller stacks; etc.)
Idk but to me calling seems to be the worst option.
If we station, we have got 420k behind and the pot is 260
If villain continues (which he should given the range that were assigned to him) he will bet around 170-200k which puts us in a really awkward spot. Our hand (top pair) is hard to fold, but we are not getting the right price to draw to our FLASH.
If I rip flop, I get to see at least 2 cards and occasionally I’m ahead vs Ac7x
I feel that in the long run, we are lighting MONNIES on fire by this call.
It is tough to fold such a MONSTER, but that seems way better than stationing (especially stationing the whole WAY.
Feeling a fold here. Think there will be better spots and at least 2 eliminations upcoming. Could be up against better 9 and flush draw might not even be good.
Villain is a WIZZ, very loose, puts you often in marginal spots.
Maybe that was the reason I decided why I decided to go with it
Anyway, NOW results:
Spoiler:
haha GOTCHA Again
Spoiler:
No really: so I RIP Villain INSTACALLS and confidently turns over 8x6c for the FLOPPED straight with the GUTSHOTredraw to the straight FLASH, turn 4x River 2 (a deuce on the river doesnt change anything anywhere anyhow anytime, unless it's the 2c!
