Villain is playing 12/10 over a very large sample of 10 hands.


Poker Stars $20+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 889916
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

BTN: t3000 150 BBs
SB: t3000 150 BBs
BB: t2640 132 BBs
UTG: t2820 141 BBs
Hero (UTG+1): t3630 181.50 BBs
UTG+2: t2890 144.50 BBs
MP1: t3000 150 BBs
MP2: t3020 151 BBs
CO: t3000 150 BBs

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is UTG+1 with A A
1 fold, Hero raises to t60, 1 fold, MP1 calls t60, MP2 calls t60, 2 folds, SB calls t50, 1 fold

Flop: (t260) 7 4 Q (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t180, MP1 calls t180, MP2 folds, SB raises to t540, Hero folds, MP1 calls t360

Wat

Not ever folding this on the 1st hand of a tournament. Just 3bet ship.

Not folding

What kind of range do you give him for small reraising a bet and a call though?

nh

I agree

I'm confused with the supposed simplicity of the inital responses here...does a 12/10 (over a small sample) turn KQ into some kind of monster here in this spot?

KQ, AQ, KK, some kind of weird flush draw - but either way, I agree, it's close. At that level people don't do too much funky stuff, and particularly the minimally sensible players - and, through his fairly standard betsizing, this guy seems to be one of them - just try to play for value. As it is 50% * 6 KK (half of the time he'll reraise PF, not more I'd say), 3 44, 3 77, and 30% * 3 QQ (reraise QQ PF most of time), and just 40% * 8 AQ and 20% * 16 KQ (and some FDs), I actually think he has too much leverage on you for you to shove it there. As I said, you people might think this analysis is BS, but based on my experience on the midstakes, I think a fold here is slightly +EV (though I myself would obv tilt-snapshove).

come on guys, when we do the range analysis do we really need to put hands like KK in there?

Also I'm not sure how you can be 12/10 over 10 hands, if the sample is 10 hands then he's 10/10 right?

Folding here seems totally fine to me given stack depth and that people play extremely straightforward in a 4way raised pot with 150bb effective stacks.

Trust me. KK is SO in there.

From the SB?! I just don't see it. It goes raise/call/call preflop and you flat KK in the SB to check-raise the board 4-way against an EP opener?

This just reeks of a set, it's very early, multiway raising ranges are stronger, fold is fine by me.

right idea, probably wrong tourney. get it in.