blinds 6k/12k with 1k ante. 6 left in the mohegan sun pocono down main event. pretty soft field. only 1 good player left besides myself in the final 6 so my edge on the remaining 5 is pretty good. guy who even admits to being the worst left out of the remaining 15 is the cl and has been fairly active. hes agro but doesnt really have a plan on any street and opens wayyy too much. he has been 4-6x'ing for 2 days now. ive played on his table for the final 6 hrs of the previous day. so he opens to 48k at 6/12k from utg +1. its folded to me and i have AJo on the button. i have 238k. theres one stack much shorter than me, two stacks between 300 - 350k and two stacks above 500k. is this a standard 3b shove? i have my opinions why it is or isnt but i would like to hear some feedback on this. thank you.

Happily shoving. Especially based on what you said. You're the only one whose played with him so you'd have a better guess or read if it's a fold.


Payouts?

based on the info given definitely 3b shove here.

would be nice to know payouts and any other live tells you've picked up.

you have answered your own question pretty well in the post - fold & don't tell anyone.

I can see shoving if you are shorter OR in a tougher field. You don't list pay jumps but I'm guessing that top 3 is where the $ is and your safer route there is not taking small edge opportunities. Unless you can assign a fairly confident range to V's open, then look for spots where you are the original aggressor.

Have you had lots of opportunities to take the B+A uncontested?

Im for shoving, primarily because of stack boost when we get a fold, which is significant and happens frequently vs his range given reads.

Would someone give me feedback on my assumptions re: EV? Im thinking he folds 3/4 and calls 88+ aq+.

I would shove if he is opening light and this is his standard open size. Have to take a chance of sometimes busting.

i think it depends on what his raise / calling range is. if hes never calling with worse its an ez fold i think. i mean ur never looking for a call in this spot so its the same thing as 62s. if it was a better player who might be calling closer to correct than maybe but i still think its a fold. besides the fact that i have a definite edge on the remaining field, i think the key factor in this thread is that hes a fish so hes gonna be opening wide but r/c'ing < top 5% so why am i turning my AJo into a bluff.. and i think it goes w/o saying that we can never be flatting here. its just a standard fold and dont tell spot like beachman said. also, 23k posts and "have to take a chance sometimes" has to be a level, no?

payouts

23,086
12,532
8,575
5,277
4,617
3,958
3,298
2,638
1,979

AJo is nothing like 62s here. We are getting called less often due to blockers and are on much better shape vs mid pairs.

[QUOTE=wantCLEANmoney; opens wayyy too much. .[/QUOTE]

Super easy shove.

So he's using ridiculous sizing, opening way too wide, and calling way too tight and you want to fold? Why even post the hand if you're so sure of your decision?

Yeh, good situation to push and pretty strong hand to do it with.

intclock hes never calling with mid pairs... his 3b calling range is top 3%. what im saying is, if im not shoving 62s in this ft spot, then i shouldn't be shoving AJo either since it has the same equity vs his calling range. so lemme ask you this, if you KNOW your opponent isnt calling with worse, do you shove AJo here? when you shove this spot, are you hoping he folds or calls?

Never is a strong word, and if your argument depends on it, then you are going to be wrong more often than you'd like.

If he knows he's bad, and there is a good chance he will take your shove over his 4x as disrespectful of his game, and he will spite call.

So ya, I'm expecting him to usually fold, sometimes call worse, and rarely call better.

well since we dont know this before shoving, it makes it easier to know if hes ever calling with worse that he literally tanked for 2 min with AK. idk how u can say he'd rarely call with better, i dont even know what that means. and he isnt calling with worse. this is an absolute fact. not my opinion. he tanked with AK so hes folding AQ and lol @ A10. we can agree to disagree i guess and id rather the majority of ppl telling me its an "SNAP" call cause i know the best on the planet fold and never tell here. its just a fold 100%. i made this post to find out what more ppl would say. not to see whats right or not. as arrogant as it sounds, i know its a fold.