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Old 06-09-2012, 12:14 PM   #1
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€20 ICM question

Villain is random in godmode, not playing crap but getting decent hands a winning every race.

Normally this should be easy shove but I hesitated here for a while, with guy like this one having all the chips and 4 other guys having ~20bb.

Do you shove here? And more importantly, can you recommend me some good ICM calculator where I can run this? I only know this one:

http://www.holdemresources.net/hr/sn...00&s7=&s8=&s9=

which indicates ship, but I can't adjust his range there (I guess he might call any Ax).

Payouts are 20%, 15%, 11%, 9%, 6% and 5%.

Poker Stars €18+€2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t1500/t3000 Blinds + t375 - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BTN: t60407 M = 8.95
Hero (SB): t59948 M = 8.88
BB: t322425 M = 47.77
UTG: t56636 M = 8.39
MP: t70698 M = 10.47
CO: t71886 M = 10.65

Pre Flop: (t6750) Hero is SB with J K
4 folds, Hero ...
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Old 06-09-2012, 12:58 PM   #2
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Re: €20 ICM question

You have 20bb. It`s far from an easy shove w/ big stack on BB whether it`s ft or not. Not saying shoving is bad, but very high variance move.

I`d balance mr/x-ing most of my opening range.
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Old 06-09-2012, 02:11 PM   #3
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Re: €20 ICM question

ICM barely comes into consideration here given you're basically the short stack and the flat payouts.

Shoving is far from being a high variance play since it allows to you to get the last bet in and maximizes your FE.
It'd be great to know a bit more about villains preflop tendencies when deciding whether to r/call or to shove (I'm gonna go ahead and say that r/folding so much equity BvB is terrible assuming villain isn't a massive nit).
Shove if he's your standard french guy who's just going to flat all bad and mediocre hands he doesn't feel super confident about shoving and only is going to shove pretty strong stuff on you, raise/call if he actually tries to put pressure on as we do really well against a decent reshoving range.
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Old 06-09-2012, 02:17 PM   #4
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Re: €20 ICM question

Yes, at some point, mr/c can be better than open-shoving.
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Old 06-09-2012, 02:17 PM   #5
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Re: €20 ICM question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elephants_pride View Post
You have 20bb. It`s far from an easy shove w/ big stack on BB whether it`s ft or not. Not saying shoving is bad, but very high variance move.

I`d balance mr/x-ing most of my opening range.
min raising in the small blind vs the big blind is a bit of a leak.

this shove is unexploitable.
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Old 06-09-2012, 02:20 PM   #6
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Re: €20 ICM question

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Originally Posted by gregz41 View Post
min raising in the small blind vs the big blind is a bit of a leak.

this shove is unexploitable.
Isn`t it a bit too deep?

And if we`ll talk about this exact spot you`d prefer to have wide open-shoving range and openfold everything else? How would you balance?
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Old 06-09-2012, 02:37 PM   #7
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Re: €20 ICM question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elephants_pride View Post
Isn`t it a bit too deep?

And if we`ll talk about this exact spot you`d prefer to have wide open-shoving range and openfold everything else? How would you balance?
I think the chubukov number for KJo means we can shove 25bb unexploitably in a heads up situation.

As to balancing, lately I just don't think there is any point in a $20 tournament. If we were deeper I'll consider my other options but this shove nets profit.
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Old 06-09-2012, 03:25 PM   #8
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Re: €20 ICM question

easy shove or limp/shove
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Old 06-09-2012, 03:43 PM   #9
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Re: €20 ICM question

Quote:
Originally Posted by gregz41 View Post
I think the chubukov number for KJo means we can shove 25bb unexploitably in a heads up situation.

As to balancing, lately I just don't think there is any point in a $20 tournament. If we were deeper I'll consider my other options but this shove nets profit.
No no, I`m not questioning ev expectation of this shove (as I`ve stated), but asking if it`s optimal at this spot?
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Old 06-09-2012, 04:13 PM   #10
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Re: €20 ICM question

if you minraise he gets 3.x:1 to play in position , so if he's a thinking opponent he can call a lot there.I'd prefer making it about 2.8 BB. However if you have reason to assume he will be shoving light I'd shove, which is unexploitable
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Old 06-09-2012, 06:01 PM   #11
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Re: €20 ICM question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elephants_pride View Post
No no, I`m not questioning ev expectation of this shove (as I`ve stated), but asking if it`s optimal at this spot?
I'd probably shove vs someone who i percieve as competent just because we'll be out of position with only 20bb and not a lot of moves to make. In this case I think shoving may be optimal given the way the OP described villain.

It's hard to have a massive edge in a tournament with only 20bb so I'd need extremely strong reads to consider another option.
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Old 06-09-2012, 06:47 PM   #12
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Re: €20 ICM question

like a 2.XX raise or limp here.

nothing wrong with miniraise imo, we have ~20bb and he sucks I have no problem giving him a price to defend a bucnh of dumb **** he'll fold on the flop most of the time
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Old 06-11-2012, 08:00 AM   #13
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Re: €20 ICM question

on the other side, what do you do if you are in the BB and get minraised here? I dont know if id give up more then 30%, because i know he has to fold at least 75% cause of ICM if i push. Also if we are a little deeper i consider calling about any suited and hope to get the goods or to outplay him postflop. This is why i hate minraising from the button.
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Old 06-11-2012, 11:05 AM   #14
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Re: €20 ICM question

Quote:
Originally Posted by Elephant106 View Post
[...] because i know he has to fold at least 75% cause of ICM if i push.
How/why does ICM apply in this hand?
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Old 06-11-2012, 11:39 AM   #15
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Re: €20 ICM question

Quote:
Do you shove here? And more importantly, can you recommend me some good ICM calculator where I can run this?
Same site, downloadable version

And it seems like the 75%-fold above is actually a pretty close guess.

Interesting spot to play around with mixed minraise and shoving ranges. BU plays roughly half of his range as minraise, and half as shove here. (KJo being played as minraise/fold.)

    
Amt.
Player
Range
R    6.0k
BU
9.4%, TT+ AKs A9o-A4o KTo+
  3B   60k
SB
7.7%, QQ+ A7s+ A5s-A2s AQo+ KQs KQo
   4B  322k
BB
6.5%, 66+ AQs+ AQo+
   C54k
BU
0.9%, KK+
  C 54k
BU
1.7%, QQ+ AKs
  3B   322k
BB
48.2%, 99+ 77-22 Kx+ Q2s+ Q8o+ Q6o J2s+ JTo T7s+ 87s 76s 65s 53s+ 43s
  C 54k
BU
2.6%, TT+ AKs
R    60k
BU
10.9%, 99-66 AQs-A3s ATo+ K9s+ QTs+ JTs
 C  58k
SB
5.1%, 99+ AQs+ AQo+
  C 57k
BB
3.5%, TT+ AKs AKo
 C  57k
BB
8.6%, 66+ ATs+ ATo+
R    6.0k
SB
10.4%, TT+ K7s-K4s KTo-K4o Q9o
  3B   322k
BB
59.5%, TT+ 88 66-22 Qx+ J2s+ J7o+ T2s+ T9o 97s+ 86s+ 75s+ 63s+ 52s+ 42s+ 32s
  C 54k
SB
2.4%, TT+
R    60k
SB
26.4%, 99-22 A2s+ A3o+ K8s+ KJo+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo T8s+ 98s
 C  57k
BB
14.2%, 33+ A7s+ A8o+ KJs+ KQo
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