I had been playing at this table for a hour or so, solid image but i wouldn't say tight. Villain is a reg, i don't get the impression that he's a winning reg though. probably late 30s. he's been involved. not waiting for monsters but not playing a ton either. despite blinds getting high, 3x+ has remained standard preflop raise at this table.


Blinds 400/800 w/ 100 ante - 10 players

Villain (MP1) 40,000

Hero (BTN) 29,000 7h8h


Folds to Villain who raises to 2,400, folds to Hero who calls, blinds fold.

Flop - 2 players, Pot 7,000

Ah 7s 6c

Villain leads for 3,200. I call.

My plan here is to bet the turn if I pick up a draw and he checks, give up if I miss and he barrels again, evaluate if i turn a draw if he barrels, and check behind if I miss and he checks.

Turn- Pot 13,400

2d

Villain Checks, I check

I checked because I thought my hand had good showdown value, but I was never getting called by worse. I'm reconsidering this check now and thinking maybe i should be betting every turn he checks.

River - Pot 13,400

3s

Villain bets 10,000...

I'm interested to hear opinions on the turn and if u think the river is ever a call as played.

You're not really deep enough to be calling this for flush implied odds but if you wanna play this then 3b pre although I like to have high card blockers to do that.

As played I'd bet ott for value and protection. If he has a bwy hand he's trying to see the river cheaply then we can get value from that. If he folds a pair higher than your 7 that would be great. If he continues I would for sure be checking back otr and folding to either a raise ott or a donk otr.

As played sure his psb looks fos but again our stack size is so awkward for hero calling here and for this kind of play which is why I somewhat advocate folding or 3bing pre to begin with.

the more i thought about this hand...the less and less I like calling the river.

i think hes pretty much always value betting a better hand here, not always an ace but imo he would check weaker holdings and i dont think its a great spot for him to bluff either.

especially with your stack, i feel like he would be inclined to just check to you with his weaker holdings.

I mucked.

i landed on him having AK, Ax suited and picking up two pair, or a small PP and either flopped, turned, or river'd a set. the bet size threw me on the river, got me interested. but really i'm curious about the turn play. with middle pair there i think i should always bet when he checks to me. maybe if i had just the backdoor draws with no pair i could check behind when i brick the turn, but having the 7 i feel as if i should have just bet out like 7-8k.

whether we should bet the turn depends on how often he is folding 88+ when we do.

Calling the 3x open with this hand and 36xBB is pretty horrible.

I don't think it's that bad but I'd certainly rather 3bet than call here pre.

As played, turn is player dependent (Will he fold 88-KK? Is he capable of check raise bluffing us with worse?) but I like betting. You'll sometimes be ahead, he'll likely check the river to us meaning we won't face a big bet like this and it also means we can credibly rep sets and 2 pair if we decide to bluff some rivers.

The pre flop call is the problem. Way too much your stack committed to the pre flop call

This is a very bluff heavy line by villain; polarized range. Big aces usually bet OTT, and weak aces often won't bet river OOP for value after checking OTT.

If you opt to call OTF and check behind OTT you're turning your hand into a bluff catcher...which is fine I guess, unless you lose your nerve if/when he fires OTR. Call now ffs.

8% is too much?

i like to stick to the rule of 5 and 10. considering i was highly likely to be heads up in position i thought a call for 8% was fine. u disagree?

fold or 3-bet pre, instafold river. flop-call ok as long as u play later streets well

call pre is meh, not horrible but not standard either. Gotta call the c-bet. The point above is the key to the hand. I think he will fold 88+, and I would check the turn and jam over his river bet to collect more dead money...

Raise or fold the river, don't call.... All of the weak parts of his range beat us.

Active villain can have all sorts of broadway holdings that miss. He's not betting 10k OTR with any pair other than Ax. This is a great spot to catch bluffs. Raising is horrible.

Fold pre first and foremost. However I'll leave my thoughts on post flop because there are tons of spots where we face this exact spot with a hand with too much showdown value to bet the turn as a bluff and not enough to value bet. In line of having no other reads, I'd assume that live players at these stakes will not value bet that thinly with 1p hands and by that, I mean go for three streets. I think bet check bet lines from the pre flop aggressor are value heavy lines, there is also the possibility that he was going for a check raise on the turn with a really strong hand, but you checked (and in doing so, capped your range) and now he has chosen to lead fairly large to recapture some of that lost value.

I still think a river call is +ev as played. Think this villain checks flopped sets 100%, and that big aces will be bet by him on harmless turns the majority of the time.

Set of deuces would suck, same for set of 3s, but both would fit his line. Ditto A3 and A2.

That said, lots of unpaired broadway hands fit; ample to make calling good here IMO.

thanks

i think ur spot on.

I think we should be betting the turn here. Checking behind narrows our range to more or less exactly what we have in the villain's mind, considering your reads.

Of course this is fine if you plan to bluff-catch but that means you have to snap off the 10k otr.

This is my thought.

When you flatted V c-bet he is probably putting you on middle pair ~88, 99, and was checking turn to make it look like a one barrel and then quit continuation attempt. Most buttons will fire out OTT here (even with air after a float on the flop) and he was looking to throw you some rope to get more of your chips in the pot that you might otherwise not put in (if you fold to his second barrel).

After that plan didn't work out, he is sizing it to look like a bluff in the hopes you call OTR.

That's my .02 and pretty much exactly how I would have played 2 pair or a set here if I were him.

Don't think he got there OTR, think he was there all along.