also: FE is not solely dependent upon your own stack depth. On this table where we have a lot of stacks with +25bb I believe there is a significant difference between having 8 and 10bb left that would make me inclined to push some more mariginal spots that might not be 100% correct ICM-wise. Not only will your opponents fear you at least a little bit more, they will also think that you're not that desperate yet to make thin shoves or re-shoves.

The background for my post: I'm pretty sure I've been playing those rebuy tourneys to passively myself and I'm trying to encourage myself to have more guts in tem

This is a bad beat story right?

yup

I would generally fold this spot but it's pretty meaningless either way. Cue huge thread of people loling at each other for being terrible and posting carefully crafted PokerStove ranges.

As ssnyc said the crucial thing here is what kind of table this is, in particular how do you plan to beat the table? If your plan to win is to shove lots and take it down uncontested, this is a fold. If your plan involves resteals, you need to shove here.

pretty str8forward fold imo

Dont know if U're serious, but how can any thinking player build a strategy upon just making shoves when his stack is the second smallest on the table (under 10bb) and 5 players have 25bb or more.

As I wrote in my initial post it's possible that those rebuy games differs very much between networks, although that would surprise. On Ongame where I play I would expect at least 50% of the players to both open and call quite light (they continue to play like they could rebuy even after the rebuy period ended). No way in the world we're going to build (or rebuild) a stack merely by just having our opponents folding away their chips to us. The pot will very often be opened by some of the first 4-5 players. We need to double up here fast and this is an opportunity as good as any.

This is just not accurate...we simply have to make a read on the table dynamic and players. Sure a lot of tables will be active and on those we may have to take the spot but there are other tables where players make bad folds and it would be a leak to ignore that free money

With all that has been said in this thread what's our play in this spot?

Villian is 39/14 over 40 hands w/ 3.0 agg factor

I have been pretty tight, but I did stop n' go him earlier when I had 8bb.

A stop'n'go play seems a little bit less credible to me with those 3bb:s more + the fact you already have done it against him once.

I expect this type of player to open from this position with all sort of broadway hands and aces with modest kickers and he have already shown a willingness to fold against a aggression so I just shove here.

True that. It's just that I almost never see this type of table dynamics in the rebuy tourneys I play - at least not as long as we're not close to the bubble.

Problem is also this: We might have spotted our two blinds when we're on button as übertight. That's fine, but the problem is we won't get much opportunities to make the classic button steal, because a player will mostly enter the pot before us.

lol at you.

My calc says we need 44.1% and it's really hard to find a realistic range against which 55 has less. Even though mp3 is not likely to be extremely wide considering the stacksizes behind him, I don't think he's so tight we don't have 44.1%. I agree we need more then that because of 3 people behind us still can find a monster but still, I'm not convinced it's -cEV.

That having said, the spot is really marginal and I'll probably pass it up unless I'm on a tough table.

Id shove both.

Some value in playing a 20bb stack vs trying to find a +EV spot with a < 9bb one - i.e. dont care if they are very marginally -EV.

id fold the 55 its pretty close though. racing very often, have pretty much 0 fe, dominated just often enough that id wait for another spot. super close IMO dont fault an all in.

[rant]
I don't understand how in 39 posts there's been virtually no math in a spot that is just a math problem. airpurifier did some and was mocked/ignored...?!?! A bunch of random hand waving arguments for both sides (wait for a better spot! No, gamble even if it's -EV because having 20bb is way better!) instead of here's a tight/reasonable/loose range and here are some EV's or estimates of them.
[/rant]

Assuming 88+/AQ overcalls, we need 45.2% vs opener to breakeven. If he's opening 15%, we lose about .75bb. If he's opening 20% we win about .75bb. If they overcall wider, that's probably bad. Combine that with reads you have and make a decision. Saying I'm usually flipping or dominated is not particularly useful in most cases.

If it's really close, then you can start to consider things like ev of 20bb vs 9bb, or likelihood of better spots (and whether those spots are good enough we should pass this one anyways).

Fair point about the math. Normally I do just that but didnt have the time.

Also didnt say having 20bbs is way better. Said it has some value compared to having 9bbs assuming the worse case scenario is that its marginally -EV (without doing the math I guessed it was borderline).

first of all it is 18k to 41k. made a typo i guess on my post, final pot is 41k vs opener.

%82 of the time, we are against opener. if he is opening with %20, we make 660 chips (0.3bb) everytime we shove vs him.

%18 of the time, we will be 3 way or vs overcaller. where we lose 1.6bb.

if you add up looks like -chip ev. if you want you can double check the math.

the point where we start having more fold equity vs opener (14bb) will make it profitable. otherwise we need to be pretty tight at these spots.

other arguments for shoving is just irrelevant as long as it is an -chip ev shove. ofcourse if u believe your existence at the table - chip ev, go ahead cuz shoving is slightly -chip ev. I dont even mention or calculate how much -$ev it is.

what is your 20% range? I feel like it has to be designed to be terrible for 55 for this to be accurate. I used something like 22,A2s,ATo,K9s,KJo,Q9s,QJo,J9s,T9s,98s (plus or minus a few don't remember exactly) against which we have 48% equity and win 1680 chips (.85bb) if all else fold. Your overcall # is slightly different than mine, but ignoring that, we get .82*.85-.18*1.6=.4bb. That's good enough for me.

If he's opening 20+ I think shove is best, 15- it's a clear fold, in between probably fold.

Hand 0: { 55+, A2s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A8o+, KTo+, QJo }

i didnt think too much about it tbh, cuz it is not even close to be +$ev shove.

depends on pay out structure and someother factors but it should be +1.5bb chip ev for it to be +$ev shove i guess/feel.

is this at or near ft? Because if you only shove spots that are +1.5bb or better cEV aren't you basically just going to blind out? .4bb is better than a lot of open shove spots although we do bust more often here which is obviously a negative (how negative depends on where we are in the MTT, I just assumed ITM but not close to ft since it wasn't mentioned)

I have no idea about deepness and I am still not convinced about spot being +chip ev.

nonetheless, as u said, we are busting here %55 of the time.
open shove spots are more profitable and you bust like %25 of the time.

I took the ~41k obv. I think you just took top 20%, which indeed is a really bad range for 55 since 22-44 is not in that range (as stevepa already pointed out), I adjusted my 20% range a bit and got around 48% equity. I think people open 22 in the spot more then K8s if they open 20%.

think stevepa summed it up.

Shove and pray