Hello Guys,

tell me what you guys think about my river fold against this very tight player.

We are still in early stages of the mini supertuesday.

PokerStars - 60/120 Ante 12 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 89.93 BB (VPIP: 31.25, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 32)
BB: 85.97 BB (VPIP: 1.72, PFR: 1.72, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 58)
UTG: 122.43 BB (VPIP: 25.55, PFR: 21.12, 3Bet Preflop: 10.36, Hands: 593)
UTG+1: 34.18 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 9.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 21)
MP: 66.5 BB (VPIP: 8.70, PFR: 6.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 46)
MP+1: 74.92 BB (VPIP: 18.60, PFR: 17.07, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 44)
MP+2: 98.98 BB (VPIP: 16.07, PFR: 9.26, 3Bet Preflop: 3.70, Hands: 56)
Hero (CO): 167.09 BB
BTN: 63.64 BB (VPIP: 18.79, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 6.02, Hands: 165)

9 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.4 BB) Hero has 7 T

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.25 BB, fold, fold, BB calls 1.25 BB

Flop: (5.9 BB, 2 players) T K T
BB checks, Hero bets 3.5 BB, BB raises to 10.5 BB, Hero calls 7 BB

Turn: (26.9 BB, 2 players) J
BB bets 10.5 BB, Hero calls 10.5 BB

River: (47.9 BB, 2 players) 9
BB bets 26 BB, fold

BB wins 47.9 BB

Do i still beat some of his value range(straights) here with my flush?
What would you choose as Flop bluffs in his shooes to finally Xraise/bet/bet

In-game I thought there was too many boats in his range

Does he checks AT river? T2-T8?
Does he bet every Qx?

very interesting spot.

Thank you

This hand looks familiar! I'll chime in with my thoughts after a bit of discussion.

Pre seems a little marginal, but I could go either way depending on table.

Flop bet and call is fine
Turn - you can't fold for that price
River - yes, I think it's a sigh fold.

I think Tens, straights are more likely to check/fold, or check/call river here. There aren't many flushes in his range by the time we get to river. This smells like a boat. Perhaps JT.

We block AThh.

I think I'm calling this given the size of the bet OTR. Villain could very much just be continuing the story after c/r the flop and we showed no real aggression at any point in the hand, so from villains perspective we aren't that strong here and a river bet makes sense for them. We can pretty much discount KK and JJ, there are a lot of QJ, KQ, AT combos here that would take this line. I don't see K10 taking this line either, so we lose to J10 and 910

Gross spot indeed

Kinda tough to narrow villains range w/o more info on him and prob would sigh call for this price since I think we'll see enough QT QJ AQ to make up for JT KT T9.

edit: Qh8h/AhQh make some sense too. meh, leaning closer to liking your fold.

This is a person who has played his cards twice in 58 times, I don't see Qh8h in his range. Also is AQ really raising flop? Also when AQ makes a straight on turn is he really betting so small on a dangerous board?

I think QT also bets larger on turn. QJ may make sense, if you interpret the turn bet as a blocking bet.

Do we think the turn is just a small blocking bet, or just a value play?

Hello guys!

Thank you very much for your really interesting comments here. I appreciate a lot!
Let's see what we know now

It seems this spot is really close and very opponent-dependant. My range looks AA-KK-AK-KQ with some traps of course

I openend Flopzilla and gave BB a 34% BB flatting range, 400 combos:

TT-22,AQo-A7o,A5o-A4o,KQo-K9o,QJo-Q9o,JTo-J9o,T9o,98o,AQs-A2s,KQs-K2s,QJs-Q5s,JTs-J6s,T9s-T6s,98s-96s,87s-86s,76s-75s,65s,54s,43s,[50]AKo[/50]

he flops 9.5% trips / 15% Kx / 15% Gutshots / 10% underpair / 30% A high / 30% no hand with BDFD.

If he only XR Tx he will have on the river:
64% straights bet river
20% full house bet river
16% trips ???

The question is, what hands does he XR flop other than Tx? If A high with BDFD he can have some flushes.

If QJ he will have straights
If KQ he will have straights

If we add the fact that he will check call some KT or whatever Tx to be tricky we will end up facing a 26% equity call on the river against a ton of straights, a couple of flushes and some full houses.

It seems that even against that opponent, the play would be to call river with a smile.


Am I right?

(sorry for my bad english)

Thank you everyone!!!!!!

thank you gregz41(my new coach, so gooood)
hitchens97, really good ingame dynamic thinking
dsuds, GTO forever
onehandatatime, you are absolutely right
tboneparte, equilab pro grinder , but what does mean w/o?

This is interesting because what is his flop CR range.... Maybe he raises some Tens but we evidently block so many combos. We do not block any straight draws or gutters however this seems like such a weird spot for someone to be CRaising a gutter or Open End when the flop hits your range moderately well. Plus, if he is a competent player and decided to raise Ace10 on the flop he would of realized that they block AA and AK, two main hands in our range that would call a CR.

I'm stumped.

I think your check call on the flop and turn is standard and well played.


Let's go over his realistic combos. Full houses 10x. I find it tough to give all combos of 10x because does he really play K10 this way and raise a board he smashed? Maybe sometimes but definitely not often. Does he value bet A10 with ace of hearts? Maybe....? sometimes???? Why would he raise it on the flop?

I would depend on GTO here and make a crying call. A flush is high up in our distribution and he has as many bluffs as value hands making the price fine. We have many worse hands in our range like AK with the ace of hearts that would continue this far, Ace10, AA etc.

Don't love it, you'll lose a lot in this spot but i throw the chips in.

No way you can fold. You've got great blockers to his value hands.

villains sizings are rly silly.

My post is trying to make sense of a halfway valid, somewhat balanced raising range from villain. I don't think AQ is a very good hand to raise the flop with but I wouldnt rule it out given villain's bets on the turn and river and the limited info we have. I don't think folding the river is going to be a huge mistake vs this type of player but think its important to realize that its gonna be more of a virture of exploiting villain's nitty stats and percieved passiveness. Q8hh could be folded pre but again we have a small sample of hands to make too many generalizations on complete ranges, and would be a decent candidate to include in a balanced flop raise range given all of the backdoor runnouts that could benefit it. As for sizing from villain, I don't really know what to make of it and don't think we should be projecting reasons we would use this sizing onto villain with out concrete evidence/reads/stats to validate this line of thinking from v.

^^^A little all over the place but think thats coherent.
without

Far from a equilab pro grinder tho , just a dreamer with a slightly profitable hobby who doesn't utilize software like I should.

In my coaching session with the OP, I advised him that we want to be checking back a couple of our weakest combos of trips here on the flop. This does a couple of things. One, we take one of our thinner value bets out of our range on the flop, meaning the hands that do value bet will be more comfortable playing vs a raise. Two, it allows us to work in having trips in a check back line. This means that we will be prepared for our opponent taking an aggresive turn and river line vs our check back range. In doing this, we protect ourselves when we have some more marginal hands by checking back in this spot with some % of stronger hands. I think T7s is going to qualify as "one of the weakest Tx we open" from this position.

On to how the hand was actually played. I think calling the flop is very standard. When you hold a Tx here, you block so much of the value range that the ratio of bluffs to value that your opponent has is going to be much more in your favour compared to the times you make this bet with a hand like QJ or a K. When we pick up the equity on the turn, and in addition to the reasoning for calling the flop, we have a very clear turn call.

On the river, this is where the hand gets particularly interesting. We end up facing a triple barrel from our opponent who has tight stats, but we make a flush which sends T7hh up in our range relative to hands like QT/AT/T8s. I think I would call considering we beat some QT, but this isn't a clear spot at all.

It´s a really gross spot, and like gregz said it, really interesting also, esp that 9 of .
I see itt a lot of ´´V´s range/hands´´ etc, but what about our range?
I think i will sized a little smaller otf (balance reasons), since we have a range advantage, wich i will also do w/ AJ,AQ,QJ,Q9 etc. (apart from AK,KK+ and Tx)
Flop we could go either way, checking or betting, but i will rather x a flop like TT9,TT8 etc. and bet this one (we should def x sometimes, cus then we´re pretty face up what we have if we always bet an Tx)
His turn sizing is pretty weird, but i think calling river is fine, even tho we have a lot of floats w/ backdoors and stuff that include an Qx and flushes also, but in the same time he could go for value w/ a Tx and Qx (bet/folding)
Close spot, ingame i prob call (cus i usually don´t like folding ) and make a note after that