UTG+1 bad reg, 19/13/7 over 400 hands, 12/10 EP

reshover 24/16/7 over 40hands

easy ship?

thanks

Poker Stars €9+€1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds + t25 - 8 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

MP1: t2982 M = 5.96
MP2: t12952 M = 25.90
CO: t9457 M = 18.91
BTN: t19442 M = 38.88
SB: t8325 M = 16.65
Hero (BB): t13984 M = 27.97
UTG: t9363 M = 18.73
UTG+1: t27565 M = 55.13

Pre Flop: (t500) Hero is BB with J J
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t488, MP1 raises to t2957 all in, 4 folds, Hero?

if you ship here 70BB deep +1 is gonna play perfectly against your hand probably folds AK and calls QQ+. not sure if it's a +EV play tbh. if he's opening 10% EP and calling QQ+ which is 1.4% that means you get called 14% of the times and have 16% vs his calling range and the reshover If reshover is reshoving 66+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo


In the situation above (not accounting the times you lose to reshover but win vs +1 since that's a little complicated and don't wanna get into it) my calculations say it's a -0.5BB shove. so even if we account for those times you beat reshover and win vs utg +1, I doubt it will be much different. At the very best it's a huge variance spot for a very marginal cEV edge. I'd fold.

ps if utg +1 calls KK+ and folds everything else it becomes a little under +1BB ceV shove but still too high variance imo

I'm reshipping QQ+/AK here. maybe even KK+/AK because of blockers.

haha this is so dumb. I want to say call/fold, but I'll evaluate when I'm less intoxicated.

yeah call/f was my first instinct aswell

should we even have an isolating all in range here? Thoughts?

yes, I think AK shows a profit when you jam it but will be a pretty bad flat.

I don't really like flatting JJ here. playing a 45BB pot oop with 65 BB behing? donno.

plus, are flatting to fold to a shove? if so, we're inviting villain to jam Ak/QQ part of his range which would, imo, would be bad.

I'm shoving this. Prob thin either way so w/e.

Pretty fun spot.

I would elect to fold this, because 1 he is not opening super wide utg for me to think flat/folding is going to that great, and 2 because he is bad and has all the chips so will flat a good % we can assume, and we will be oop and stuff.

Although you could argue to flat, and if he flats to we could just c/f QKA flops and get it in on any other board too thoughts on this guys?

Aks, QQ+ would be my get it in range.

desperado had a good shot at, but the true answer as to whether JJ is a profitable reshove accounting for everything is such a huge math equation my head will explode.

rebuy period is over just to confirm. seems so.

call/fold