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+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! +R Nut flush OTR on paired board!

08-26-2016 , 07:10 PM
I have 18 hands on villain, LAG stats so far but take that with a grain of salt. From sharkscope he looks like a mediocre 14$ ABI reg with ability 84 but no graph so who knows. I Found his raise OTF to be on the smaller side to be a set or a str8. Also small OTT if he had the FH. Was leaning towards 99 or smaller flush OTR. I insta checked OTR and he jammed after around 7 seconds. All my gut and instinct told me to fold. Thoughts? As far as my play I feel a bet fold OTR would probably have made more sense.

No Limit Hold'em Tournament T3,000/T6,000
Buy-in: €9+€1 EUR Hold'em No Limit
PokerStars
8 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com: Poker HUD for Mac and Windows

Stacks:
UTG - UTG (T171,200)
UTG+1 - Hero (T355,983)
MP - MP (T52,698)
MP2 - MP2 (T543,057)
CO - CO (T349,914)
BTN - BTN (T247,166)
SB - SB (T320,628)
BB - BB (T26,821)

Preflop: (T13,800, 8 players) Hero is UTG+1 with Q A
1 fold, Hero raises to T12,000, 1 fold, MP2 calls T12,000, 1 fold, BTN calls T12,000, 1 fold, BB calls T6,000

Flop: 8 4 5 (T55,800, 4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets T25,668, MP2 raises to T66,000, 2 folds, Hero calls T40,332

Turn: 8 (T187,800, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets T42,000, Hero calls T42,000

River: 9 (T271,800, 2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets T252,000, Hero ???
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-27-2016 , 11:37 AM
I fold turn and calling river as played
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-27-2016 , 06:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by princekuh1o
I fold turn and calling river as played
You fold turn for that sick prize? So you just put him on Full house/ Quads and nothing else basically OTT to justify that? I just thought his raise OTF was so small for a set there or am i wrong? I might be wrong but please give me some reasoning behind your preferred actions cause without that i ain`t learning **** lol
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-28-2016 , 03:58 PM
Well we need 18% with one card to come and will play river oop from an immediate odds perspective. V is rarely light raising 4 way, we block a majority of his semi bluffs: all the FD combos, 67 unlikely, so turn sizing is pretty much boats and thin value from 99-JJ (which won't raise flop as nearly high of frequency as sets) if we assume v only raises 99-JJ half the time , were left with a little less than 18% (got there calculating villain raising all non heart 99-JJ)

If I'm calling turn then it's on the assumption I can start throwing other semi bluff hands in vs range like 66-77, KJhh AND I expect v to bomb river with these hands at high frequency.

I don't think that flop raise sizing is out of line for a set at all, villains in position and wants action

Last edited by princekuh1o; 08-28-2016 at 04:28 PM.
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-29-2016 , 05:42 AM
Prob checking flop 4way OOP.
As played happily calling vs LAG.
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-29-2016 , 04:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by furo
Prob checking flop 4way OOP.
As played happily calling vs LAG.
Not sure how happy we are otr.
A5hh yes but AQhh seems gross.
Im prolly folding vs psb, he's telling a legit story and I hate having Qh.
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-31-2016 , 07:45 AM
I think we can definitely be ahead of KJhh here, as it would most likely take a similar line and the smallish bet OTT would make me believe that as well. I think you need to have a plan here, if you're calling the turn and then hit the nut flush draw and fold then I'm curious as to why you would call the turn at all? I don't think the 9helps him at all. What was your plan going into the river?
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
08-31-2016 , 08:48 AM
Thanks for replies, will trust my instinct next time and fold turn. I called river and he had 44. Surprised that he should not have raised bigger OTF into 3 players. Especially considering it is such a soft MTT people are gonna call for ridic bad prices with bad draws and top pair etc.
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
09-01-2016 , 09:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by user12345
Not sure how happy we are otr.
A5hh yes but AQhh seems gross.
Im prolly folding vs psb, he's telling a legit story and I hate having Qh.
Yep.
And check flop
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
09-01-2016 , 11:41 AM
Turn size seems mandatory call and simultaneously suspicious/worrying.
As played, river will a be a good chunk of call/mucks... but I don't think I can fold.
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote
09-01-2016 , 11:43 AM
And also prefer Check flop, 4 ways.
+R Nut flush OTR on paired board! Quote

      
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