It's a $1500+100 and we're on Day 2, still kinda far from the money. Actually, this is the first hand of the day. The BB is 2k and I have 101k and A9 of on the button. And older Greek guy who has over $1.2 million on Hendon Mob, and that's all I know about him, raises to 4500. He is 3rd to act and has about 240k. I call and the BB comes along. The three of us look at a flop of

A-T-6 rainbow with one . I check it through. I'm interested in thoughts on this.

The turn was a 7 and not a club. They checked to me and I bet 6k. Only the raiser called.

River was an offsuit 8 and there is no flush possible. The Greek guy now bets out 15k. I raise to 33k and he quickly puts me all-in.

Your thoughts?

I thank you.

I think this is an excellent flop to bet when checked to. Pretty safe to say you are ahead and you really don't have anything else working for you. I actually think betting the flop to take it down now is a safe play as a T will likely call you thinking that you are FOS and only betting your position.

As played, I likely shrug-call. does he really raise J-9 pf from ep and call the turn bet with nothing more than a gutter? His range includes sets and several 2 pr. holdings as well as a chop

If you are going to raise river, got to call now.

I think I would just nit it up and sigh flat the river.

Did the Turn bring a different FD?

Betting flop seems good.

River I also raise/call although it's hard for him to not have J9 here.

I think the turn completed the rainbow

bet flop, check turn, snap call river

def betting flop and never folding river

Not betting the flop is totally fine here. River min sizing is ****ty and stupid and obvious but even so can't fold now prolly chopping always.

nh

i would bet the flop but check is o.k too.
i call river because j-9 is unlikley and if he had it so be it
i tend to believe he think you dont have the 9... as played

In that case its a very very clear call. If turn brought the FD, I would hesitate for around 5 seconds and still call.

he is betting on the chances that you don't have 9. how quickly did he put you all in? like in 1 sec or 30 sec?

Less than five seconds

Flop check is ok. It is not a mandatory bet. Turn bet could be bigger. I think River is a sigh call.

Pre is fine, although we may want to mix in some 3-bets with our worst suited Ax.

Flop check is fine, we want to have some top pair when we check and A9 is one of the weaker Ax hands we should be calling with pre here, as we should probably fold or 3-bet bluff some of our weaker Ax facing an EP raise. Turn is reasonable.

Don't really understand the river min-raise clickback, unless we're trying to induce our opponent to do exactly what he did. And if so, there's zero reason not to call.

I disgustedly called and he showed Q9, so we chopped. Who played the river worse? I think he did, but maybe it's close.

As I played with this guy for the next two hours, it was clear to me that anyone can amass $1.2 million on Hendon Mob if they play enough and have a couple of lucky, big scores. He really seemed bad.

I'm curious as to why you guys dislike my river sizing?

What value hands does our opponent have that take this line (check flop, check/call turn, donk river)? And of those hands, how many of those hands are calling any river raise? I'm trying to figure out what hands our opponent has that we're targeting with that bet.

If we think our opponent can call a river raise with worse (i.e., weird played sets or random two pair hands) then why not raise larger? If we think our opponent is folding pretty much all of their value range on the river to a raise then it makes no sense to bet.

Because people are less likely to call big raises than they are small raises?

Someone who can have J9 in this spot is probably bad enough to bet with sets, two pair and a lot of other random hands that aren't value bets but not bluffs either and might be tempted to call.

Cause you're never bluffing with this size or value raising worse than 9x

Right, but he can still pay off with worse

I agree. You can't have this run out and not raise here. There are a lot of hands that the villain can pay you off with. He might just think you are FOS.

And if a bad player leads river with sets or two pairs don't you think they'll call more than 18K? I'm not saying we need to jam or anything, but I don't think there are many hands in v's value range that are calling a raise to 33K but folding to a raise to 45K.

In fact, I think most villains are more likely to call 45k than 33k, since you just aren't ever bluff-raising to 33k from 15k.

Just snap the river and win a bunch

Results? I feel like this has to be a bad beat, otherwise it probably wouldn't have been posted.