Quote:
Originally Posted by Black Aces 518
I like opening and inducing if we are past the bubble, or if we are 400-500 away, but right now, like I said, inducing action where we have no fold equity and are very often racing is a -$EV proposition IMO.
I don't see the -$EV with the open at this point.
Hands that call an open-shove:
AA, KK, QQ, JJ (82/18) TT (0/0)
AK, AQ (55/45 accounting for suited)
Based on on possible holdings, 32 and 24, and omitting TT, that gives you an EV of -6275 against this range.
Hands that might call an open-shove:
99,88,77 (82/18)
AJ,KQ (55/45 accounting for suited)
AT (69/31 accounting for suited)
Based on possible holdings, 18, 32, 8, that gives you an EV of 34,783 against this range.
That's a super tight range in the first grouping.
75% of the time we win 12k in abandoned blinds and antes.
25% of the time we lose 6275.
(6275)*.25=(1569)
12000* .75= 9000
(1569) + 9000 = 7431
An EV of 7431 if we only play against this range. Below is what happens when we expand to include the looser range.
The second grouping will be folded 50% of the time it is dealt, as a rough estimate based on hand values and player reads provided above.
(34783* .33) + (-6275*.67)= 15682
15682* .25= 3920
12000*.75= 9000
3920 + 9000 = 12920
Including the second grouping, we get to an EV +12920, or related to our stack size of 88k, +14.68% when we shove. Now, we can argue that 25%/75% as identified for the call/fold ratio could be off, but for our purposes it's not heavy either way. 14.68% EV with a high variance doesn't seem to be a prudent to use our entire stack to win a tourney, or to survive a three-hour virtual bubble.
Just cause we're dealt TT out of position doesn't mean we are require to play it in any particular way, or at all.
As for an open here, rather than a shove, the argument is that we give ourselves a chance to get a read on the opponents behind us and a chance to get out of this hand with chips on a bad flop, while also freezing our opponents with a couple hands beating us, a lot we are flipping with and inviting hands in the second range that would've folded to play as well as inviting suited As, smaller pairs and broadway cards to play while giving room to let someone three-bet us from behind.
An open is definitely a SHARPER line and requires kid gloves, but should be far more profitable.