On the 4th level of 440 EUR buying 330 entries live MTT in Vienna, starting stack is 25K, blinds are 200-400, hero utg with 28K holding AhQc raising it to 1K, mp1 with 55K calls, mp2 with 30K 3-bets to 2.5K, hero calls and mp1 calls.
Flop is KhQh8h, hero checks, mp1 checks, mp2 makes it 7K, hero calls, mp2 raise to 17K, mp2 folds..
I would have led out so I think that's a mistake. I think flatting the 7k is also a mistake - jam it with that stack size.
MP2 flatted your raise then flatted the other guy's raise preflop so I think we can eliminate AK/KK/QQ from the mix and probably all those baby flushes. KQ or 88 seem like the most likely hands with 89/910/10J hearts possible.
Simulation says with that range (KQ/88/middling hearts) you only need 38% equity by jamming all in and he calls... that extra 7k from the folder is giving you a lot better odds. Considering you are only putting in <30% of the total chips this seems like a very easy mathematical play (to go all-in) and hope for a heart (or Ace if he has KQ).
1/3rd to ½ of the time you are going to run into 88 here, not hit, and go busto, but that’s tournament poker. You can’t fold these large mathematical-range edges.
If you think there’s absolutely no way he has KQ here then it’s a lot closer, but still a call. That other guy actually put 9k into the pot total and folded so you only need 31% to draw out on a made flush or a set. You’re getting crazy good odds here and you need to jam it.
Well, I ended up shoving, knowing I am probably behind but with good chance to improve and have a deep stack early in the tournament.
mp1 showed 5h7h and I didn't imporve
mp1 however made it to the final table
This is one of those hands that you have to jam and hope for the best. Even if the guy turns his hand face up after the flop, you're still going all in.
