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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 08-12-2017, 10:18 AM   #1
Afteryastack
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Tough river call or fold?

Struggled with the river decision here and wanted to get some thoughts on what other players would do. Also would welcome opinions on if you would've played the hand similar up until the villain shove OTR.

Villain is 19/10 80 hands.

    Poker Stars, $75 Buy-in (450/900 blinds, 140 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 21,991 (24.4 bb)
    BB: 19,504 (21.7 bb)
    Hero (UTG+1): 25,144 (27.9 bb)
    UTG+2: 62,370 (69.3 bb)
    MP1: 8,946 (9.9 bb)
    MP2: 23,204 (25.8 bb)
    MP3: 10,528 (11.7 bb)
    CO: 15,035 (16.7 bb)
    BTN: 59,572 (66.2 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T A
    Hero raises to 1,980, 6 folds, SB calls 1,530, BB folds

    Flop: (6,120) 2 9 A (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero checks

    Turn: (6,120) K (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets 2,966, SB calls 2,966

    River: (12,052) A (2 players)
    SB checks, Hero bets 4,337, SB raises to 16,905 and is all-in, Hero?




    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
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    Old 08-12-2017, 10:35 AM   #2
    Satory
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    I believe he will not call OOP with AK/AQ/AJ so he has a weaker Ax or more likely Kx. I will call here most of the time.

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    Old 08-12-2017, 10:45 AM   #3
    iamhussler
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Never folding, if he has 2,2 so be it.
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    Old 08-12-2017, 08:56 PM   #4
    Zimmer4141
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Prob not folding here just because it's such a weird line. Like anything that has us beat on the river also has us beat on the flop and turn, and it's just such a weird line to take on this board for value.

    I'm prob calling off.
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    Old 08-12-2017, 10:18 PM   #5
    YawnsIEs
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    You lose to too few combos to fold IMO
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    Old 08-13-2017, 03:50 AM   #6
    tzurp
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    sounds like A-9 off- or a bluff still i would call as played.
    not that it would change something but i would c- bet flop when kicker not that strong
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    Old 08-13-2017, 04:28 AM   #7
    Afteryastack
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Zimmer4141 View Post
    Prob not folding here just because it's such a weird line. Like anything that has us beat on the river also has us beat on the flop and turn, and it's just such a weird line to take on this board for value.

    I'm prob calling off.
    These were my thoughts exactly.
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    Old 08-13-2017, 04:29 AM   #8
    Afteryastack
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Thanks for the responses everyone. Seems like nobody is folding. I ended up calling and villain showed up with 99. Strange line to take but it confused me and it worked so fair play to the villain i guess.
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    Old 08-13-2017, 05:46 AM   #9
    Soepgroente
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Dunno why everybody wants to call, most villains will realise you're not folding Ax and exploitably don't have any bluffs here. Only reason to call here is if villain can overplay A8 or something.
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    Old 08-13-2017, 08:49 AM   #10
    Afteryastack
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Soepgroente View Post
    Dunno why everybody wants to call, most villains will realise you're not folding Ax and exploitably don't have any bluffs here. Only reason to call here is if villain can overplay A8 or something.
    I was hoping someone would weigh in on villains possible bluff range, if any. J10/Q10/QJ spades maybe? Any Kx would just call or fold the river rather than shoving most of the time i think.
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    Old 08-13-2017, 11:24 PM   #11
    wowsooooted
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    fold pre,

    never folding as played
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    Old 08-14-2017, 12:46 AM   #12
    MerginHosOn24s
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    take your lumps and move on. the line you took on flop def makes this a call IMO
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    Old 08-14-2017, 09:17 PM   #13
    sambraun
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by wowsooooted View Post
    fold pre,

    never folding as played
    YESSS!!!
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    Old 08-15-2017, 07:33 AM   #14
    cicakman
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    You guys can't talk about pre without knowing who the bb is or what the table is like.
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    Old 08-15-2017, 08:56 AM   #15
    daviid
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    pre is whatever as cicak said depends a bit on who is in the bb. as played we are getting close to 3-1 on a call (having to call 12ish to win 33ish) and given that price i dont think we can just call quads and KK here. people will surely turn some random stuff into a bluff or (less likely though) feel induced to jam worse Ax for value not to mention that his only boat flatting from sb should be precisely 99.

    easy call and def wp.
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    Old 08-15-2017, 09:54 AM   #16
    OutPlayU27
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    So i see A9, and 22, but what about 99, AJ (and AQ if his a nit) ??
    I understand that mathematically we should call, but like what do we even beat? Not saying we should always fold, but neither call.
    We can def have an Ax here and AA , aswell as KK in our x/back range otf, sometimes i´ll x/back 99.
    Tbh just don´t see people bluff in spots like this, unless i know his a monkey clicking buttons.

    Last edited by OutPlayU27; 08-15-2017 at 09:57 AM. Reason: also, pre is close OP
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    Old 08-17-2017, 09:25 AM   #17
    SickCall
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Dont see why you ever would check the flop. Think this is the type of flop we want to cbet 100 %, 30 % pot ish.
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    Old 08-17-2017, 10:56 AM   #18
    imfromsweden
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    whatever I call river as well even though we're prob beat most of the time. Losing to too few combos and he gets to the river with too many weak combos for us to be able to fold imo.
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    Old 08-17-2017, 12:15 PM   #19
    user12345
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    Re: Tough river call or fold?

    Sb will have more underboats and good Ax, bb will have more Ax-boats thus calling KK and folding AT vs sb and vice versa vs bb (assuming bb will have bluffs).
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