Hi guys this is a SCOOP event played on .es, a 50€ 6max KO (with 1 re-entry, wich is no longer avalaible)
We´re pretty deep in the tournament, but not ITM yet.
V good LAG (30/20), really agrro postflop.
We have a lot of history and in this specific tournament he hero called us in some spots he shouldn´t, we´ve been pretty sticky vs him but not out of line.
Well, that Qx otr changes everything imo as for ranges and all, but obv i would like to hear your thoughts.
V has a 60% turn cbet once he cbets flop (wich is 80%) but his sizing kinda says that he´s preparing a river shove so maybe make un exploitable fold???
Buuttt a lot draws missed since we don´t block many, his def capable of turning Ax into bluff here, we´re def get w/some Qx till river (AQ, QdTd etc,) sooo fold, call, why?



[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, €22.43+€22.43+€5.14 Buy-in (350/700 blinds, 85 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37296180

BTN: 37,704 (53.9 bb)
SB: 30,087 (43 bb)
BB: 54,482 (77.8 bb)
UTG: 21,918 (31.3 bb)
MP: 28,589 (40.8 bb)
Hero (CO): 52,318 (74.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J A
UTG folds, MP raises to 1,505, Hero calls 1,505, 3 folds

Flop: (4,570) A Q 9 (2 players)
MP bets 2,500, Hero calls 2,500

Turn: (9,570) 5 (2 players)
MP bets 6,100, Hero calls 6,100

River: (21,770) Q (2 players)
MP bets 18,399 and is all-in, Hero ???

Fold river as played
his turn sizing looks strong as he can easily shove river
Plus we have J which blocks J10 which will consist of some of his 3 barrel bluff range

Think vill can also shove AK on river as we should never have Qx apart from QdX and has less than PSB

Also dont think vill turns Ax into a bluff apart from A9

Is villain bad enough to bet twice with Qx? How much Qx do we have here? I'm fairly sure I'm going to call though.

We have a few Qx , like QdTd, KdQd, AQ etc.
And I mentioned in OP V is good

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He called and lost in earlier spots?

I'd 3bet pre
Seems yeah you should call some here.

Yep he did.
I would even consider flatting AQs (maybe 3bet AQo) in this spot for several reasons : #one V is aggro postflop and barrels a lot when we hit top pair or better.
#two If we get 4bet, wich V is most likely to this 25% of time (didn't mentioned that in OP) I would need to.make a decision in a ****ty spot and fold.the best hand most of time.
#three Stacks sizes.

I think your hand is so underplayed here, it's a snap call. Villain as described is barreling much, much wider than the few combo's like that clip us.

I would be pretty sure I was ahead here and if you weren't, c'est la vie, gg wp. I like the way you played the hand.

I'm not comfortable calling down but seems fine here.

Well, i did called, and V shows ...

How much would the bounty being in play effect things?

I'd 3 bet pre if he's playing a lot of hands, and "meh" call otr as played.

Yeah, this is a spot where I think villain likely has bad fundamentals. His value range just got so small it's kind of ridiculous. He has AQ/Q9/55 and then AA if he decided to bet that. Safe to say he probably bets all 16 JT combos. And then if he's bad aggro, probably every kind of gut shot on the turn as well. Given we only need to have <33% on the river to call and we're up against 14 combos of value. I don't think this is that close, the only thing that we should consider is how many worse hands do we call.

From a theoretical point of view, it doesn't make sense to call your worst hand you reach river with, because then our opponent is never incentivised to bluff. So I'd be ok folding some Ax here, like my weakest CO flats, but don't over do it.

Calling A4 > calling AJ fwiw since we don't block bluffs.
But why can't he jam AK for value, we don't have many Qx or traps here by the river?
If we call AJ/ATs heavy range otr then he's eff-ly underbluffing when he's balanced in vacuum, that's why I don't like the whole thing originally.

Still he can bluff some % of JT anyway.

Hands V has that beat us, imo, are AA QQ AK AQ and 99 (17 combos?), so we only need V to be bluffing with 7 or 8 combos for this to be a call. It doesn't take many combos of JT, KJ, KT, dd, and maybe other stuff for V to be over bluffing. Our A is also a good blocker against his value range even though the J is a bad blocker for bluffs. It's just too easy for V to be overbluffing for me to want to fold.

I think his value range also includes KQdd, QJdd, KTdd, Q9s
Bluff range makaes the call ok.. especialy considering that its v hard for us to have Qx

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Anyone who folds here needs to reevaluate their game as they're over folding super +ev spots imo.

Exactly my thoughts ingame, but userfish12345 is kinda right about A4>AJ, and tbh if river is a blank I'm folding.
That's why I was asking if we should fold turn? Is it exploitable?


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For me the biggest reason to call is his bet size, but even with this I'm not so inclined to call. He's representing 55/99 (which could bet like that) or AA/AQ/KdQd/QQ ?? which you block some of them and like it's said in the post, is a narrow range, probably not betting so much in a board where he's blocking a lot of value. He knows you can't have many Qx so he's just trying to make you fold your Ax.

Good call imo, prolly ingame I fold. Nice spot to review

You described the villain as 30/20, 60% c-bet, 80% turn c-bet. I don't know how anyone could find a fold here. I also can't see any reason to bet as long as he'll do it for you. I think this hand kinda played itself, right?

Flop cbet80% and turn 60% , not the easiest call, cuz all we have is a bluffcatcher.

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One of the reason I wanted to fold tbh.
Thx bro!

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This was your plan preflop so close your eys and call on every river, expect maybe T not diamond

And imo he should have Q8dd+ as played, and also i dont think is bad to bet good Qx on turn with that bigish sizing, when that turn hits and open flush draws too plus he is putting ton of presure on Ax type of hands seting up for river plays etc so i think his river value Range is AA/AQ/99/55/ KQ/Q8dd+/AK and his blufing range should be KTdd/some of JT combos/T8dd/J8dd and maybe 9Tdd/J9dd/K9dd
But main thing here imobis your preflop plan and reads you have on villain that he is,agro abd barreling a lot which suggest to play your hand with closed eyes clicking call btn after you get that flop imo

Yeah, thx , i agree.
The thing is, i was a little bit sticky vs him (in general) and i wasn´t expect him to have to many bluffs, but like i said i think is a bad river to bluff
If we are V, do we shove AK for value here or is too thin?

Hes not betting any Qs twice so he's repping pretty thin here he's basically got a boat or nothing not sure if he value bets AK I know I would because u don't have many Qx in your range I still think he has enough bluffs here were I think u can call but it's close he's got all the J10 combos K10d KJd J8d 108d etc that I'm assuming he unloads the clip I also 3bet pre sometimes

thankfully V has been loose prior and you can include stupid bluffs and worse Ax in range.

i'd rly quite dislike this spot if V had been solid.

What do you dislike?

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