So today I played a few MTTs, but the one of most interest to this thread is the Barcelona PS Mega for the 4million euro guarantee later this month: this particular mega was a 215 euro buy in, awarding 27 seats plus 300 euros in money, while 28th got 400 euros...

I finished in 28th, but it is of my own doing....

Clearly there are plenty of sites and articles about mega satellite strategy and I broke a cardinal rule so I deserve what I got....that being said, here was a situation I am curious about -- specifically how many people would fold AA in this exact spot?

There are 31 players left (awarding 27 seats worth about 1500 euros) and I am in the BB. I am currently 12/31 and can likely comfortably fold to the seat. Action folds around to Kenny Hallaert on the button. He has been open shipping his 15-25 bb stack several times, obviously knowing no one is calling without AA since we are so close to the seats. I have him covered by around 9.9k...
He ships the button, SB folds and it's on me...

When he shipped, blinds were 700/1400, Kenny had 22.8k and I had 32.7k

Is this a realistic spot to fold, cede him the hand, and just move on? Of course the possibility exists the bubble could go on forever and who knows, maybe I slip in chips since the last 15 or so were pretty close in chips.

I considered a few things rather quickly: first off, I was certain he was shipping when the CO folded. Second, eliminating a good player is always nice (however that argument has little merit in a mega close to the prize). Third, by winning the hand, I can literally sit out and win the mega. Fourth, (obviously) I have his range absolutely crushed and even moreso after the Q52 hhc flop. He had Jd9h and runs out a K high straight.

So that is the first issue:

The second issue is equally intriguing I think. Fast forward a bit. I was 31/31 after the hand, doubled the next hand to get to 24/31 and was ok again. We get to the bubble, I survive in 24/28 and now we are on the stone bubble for the package. I was guaranteed to double my buy in basically with a 28th place finish, but obviously I want to win and only 27 win. We are H4H and I am among the 4 short stacks (all 4 hovering around 10k, roughly 5.5 big blinds.

It folds to the CO who open ships for 10.7k at 1400bb. FWIW his VPIP was 13%, PFR was 13%, and the last 5 hands he had shown were AA, 99, AK, AK, and Q9. However his and my stacks are similar to the point if I lose I will have 1/3 of a BB...

My hand: KK

Given that we are 1) H4H on the bubble and 2) his shipping range is ultra tight, can I ever fold this hand even knowing I am losing 3800 per orbit (meaning I have roughly 3 orbits to survive)....

I'm shipping both spots. #1 we are not close enough to bubble to fold. #2 is standard call.

WP

no 4 sure.

and definitely no again

yeah AA is a call pre when the flop is Q52f

This is Def possible...I could also date a model...and the earth may be flat...etc

It would really suck if the satty was still running while they were playing the ME Final Table...

When we have over 20BB and we're 4 spots from the end of a satellite, it's not unreasonable to fold 100% of our hands. Everything I've read on satellites suggests that the average stack at the end will be about 10BB. Even if we don't play a hand for a while and the blinds go up, we should still be over 10BB.

Which is larger ~100% or 80%?

i fold the AA, and call KK spot

I'd want to know exact stacks for the second one, plus where everyone is relative to the blinds and big stacks and how light you think other people are getting it in. If a couple of them have 4 blinds and are about to hit the big... you're almost guaranteed to have 2 all in showdowns before you have to get your stack in, which by itself is about the equivalent of your equity with kings vs the likely range of the guy who shoved. If everyone is almost exactly 5.5 blinds and you're about to hit the bb, then for sure go for it.

For the first one you can't look at it as 80% equity vs chances of winning if busted, because you cover him and depending on other stacks and their playing style you might still have a 50-75% chance even if you lose. So 90-95% overall. Obviously your chances of folding to a win aren't 100%. It's probably somewhere around 95% but if someone ran a simulation with different player types and it came up as a hair below 90% I wouldn't be shocked. Probably fold I guess.