Was Scott Blumstein's big bluff on the Main Event final table very bad and actually lucky?
08-19-2017
, 04:18 PM
https://www.pokernews.com/tours/wsop...ips.180979.htm
From pokernews:
Hand #146: Ott raised to 4.4 million on the button and Blumstein three-bet to 13.5 million from the small blind. Pollak folded his big blind and action was back on Ott. He wasted no time and called.
The flop came {a-Clubs}{4-Clubs}{3-Clubs} and Blumstein led out for 16 million. Ott thought about it for a moment and called.
The turn was the {9-Diamonds}. Blumstein led out for 20 million and Ott slowly cut out chips for a call.
The river was the {2-Spades} and Blumstein moved all in, putting Ott to the test for his remaining 85,775,000 chips. The entire crowd gasped, and Ott thought for about a minute before folding. Blumstein's rail went crazy as he raked in the big pot.
Blumstein: KcTx
Ott: 8c8x
First of all, I searched for a video of the hand on youtube, as that trumps hand histories all day long but inexplicably there are no videos of the 2017 WSOP main event final table on youtube as of today.
This hand really boosted Blumstein's chances of being main event champion. For Dan Ott, he will forever regret not making that call and wonder what could have been. This was easily the most critical hand of the final table, and the most important hand these two will ever play in their lives.
Prior to this hand, Blumstein had lost 4 hands in a row where he VPIPed, 3 vs Ott. It felt like his was desperate and frustrated, which may have widened his 3-bet range from the small blind, a dynamic that Dan Ott was no doubt aware of.
The flop action seems pretty standard with a bet from the king high flush draw and a call from the pocket eights with a flush draw.
The turn Blumstein bets again which seems standard. The turn call from Ott may seem slightly optimistic but is understandable given the dynamic. However, if he expecting a high barrel frequency on the river and he is not willing to stake his tournament life on 88 on this board, a fold would seem to be in order.
The river is about as big of a blank as you can get. Scott now has a difficult decision, to bluff or not to bluff? The problem is that Dan Ott has lots of aces in his range and relatively few hands in his range that will fold. Sure Dan probably doesn't have a big ace, because he would have 4-bet the steaming Blumstein. But that doesn't mean he can't have hands like AJ, AT, suited aces, or a flush that will call. Also problematic is Scott holding the K
which blocks some of Ott's folding range such as KQx, KJx, KTx. Pairs with a single only represent 3 combinations each, and Blumstein can not be sure that Ott wouldn't fold most of those on the turn. It just feels like given the dynamic Ott would've called down with any Ace meaning Blumstein got very lucky to run into the bottom of Ott's range.
From pokernews:
Hand #146: Ott raised to 4.4 million on the button and Blumstein three-bet to 13.5 million from the small blind. Pollak folded his big blind and action was back on Ott. He wasted no time and called.
The flop came {a-Clubs}{4-Clubs}{3-Clubs} and Blumstein led out for 16 million. Ott thought about it for a moment and called.
The turn was the {9-Diamonds}. Blumstein led out for 20 million and Ott slowly cut out chips for a call.
The river was the {2-Spades} and Blumstein moved all in, putting Ott to the test for his remaining 85,775,000 chips. The entire crowd gasped, and Ott thought for about a minute before folding. Blumstein's rail went crazy as he raked in the big pot.
Blumstein: KcTx
Ott: 8c8x
First of all, I searched for a video of the hand on youtube, as that trumps hand histories all day long but inexplicably there are no videos of the 2017 WSOP main event final table on youtube as of today.
This hand really boosted Blumstein's chances of being main event champion. For Dan Ott, he will forever regret not making that call and wonder what could have been. This was easily the most critical hand of the final table, and the most important hand these two will ever play in their lives.
Prior to this hand, Blumstein had lost 4 hands in a row where he VPIPed, 3 vs Ott. It felt like his was desperate and frustrated, which may have widened his 3-bet range from the small blind, a dynamic that Dan Ott was no doubt aware of.
The flop action seems pretty standard with a bet from the king high flush draw and a call from the pocket eights with a flush draw.
The turn Blumstein bets again which seems standard. The turn call from Ott may seem slightly optimistic but is understandable given the dynamic. However, if he expecting a high barrel frequency on the river and he is not willing to stake his tournament life on 88 on this board, a fold would seem to be in order.
The river is about as big of a blank as you can get. Scott now has a difficult decision, to bluff or not to bluff? The problem is that Dan Ott has lots of aces in his range and relatively few hands in his range that will fold. Sure Dan probably doesn't have a big ace, because he would have 4-bet the steaming Blumstein. But that doesn't mean he can't have hands like AJ, AT, suited aces, or a flush that will call. Also problematic is Scott holding the K
which blocks some of Ott's folding range such as KQx, KJx, KTx. Pairs with a single only represent 3 combinations each, and Blumstein can not be sure that Ott wouldn't fold most of those on the turn. It just feels like given the dynamic Ott would've called down with any Ace meaning Blumstein got very lucky to run into the bottom of Ott's range.
