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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 02-19-2017, 07:34 PM   #1
C_fr89
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Club overpair river decision

Is it an ugly fold on the river?
I could call?? There was a lot of draw in my range

    Poker Stars, $45 Buy-in (300/600 blinds, 70 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37642785

    MP3: 16,669 (27.8 bb)
    Hero (CO): 40,485 (67.5 bb)
    BTN: 13,309 (22.2 bb)
    SB: 35,372 (59 bb)
    BB: 37,498 (62.5 bb)
    UTG+1: 42,429 (70.7 bb)
    UTG+2: 10,043 (16.7 bb)
    MP1: 24,676 (41.1 bb)
    MP2: 65,052 (108.4 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with 8 8
    UTG+1 raises to 1,500, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls 1,500, MP2 calls 1,500, MP3 folds, Hero calls 1,500, 3 folds

    Flop: (7,530) 4 5 7 (4 players)
    UTG+1 bets 4,800, 2 folds, Hero calls 4,800

    Turn: (17,130) 3 (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

    River: (17,130) 4 (2 players)
    UTG+1 bets 11,420, Hero folds

    Spoiler:



    Get the Flash Player to use the Hold'em Manager Replayer.
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    Old 02-19-2017, 08:50 PM   #2
    gregz41
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    Re: overpair river decision

    Tempted to bet turn really small for like 3k. Few good things can happen when you choose that sizing. Board texture means you re unlikely to get raised. You can get called by worse hands still, and you are very unlikely to face a river lead.
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    Old 02-26-2017, 01:54 AM   #3
    jpgiro
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    Re: overpair river decision

    Betting turn small is interesting. Obviously flush draws would continue, but you might get a lot of Ax hands that c-bet flop to continue to 7 (or more) outs.

    As played I don't think we can call river. Even if all of our flush draws barrel plus some random air, I don't think that's enough hands that make a call profitable, and some Ax hands might check hoping to be good at showdown.
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    Old 02-26-2017, 07:03 AM   #4
    OutPlayU27
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    Re: overpair river decision

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gregz41 View Post
    Tempted to bet turn really small for like 3k. Few good things can happen when you choose that sizing. Board texture means you re unlikely to get raised. You can get called by worse hands still, and you are very unlikely to face a river lead.
    I just don´t see to many worse hands that are calling when we bet (even if we choose a small size) besides FD´s, are we bluffing? maybe you can expand what´s the reasoning behind it (is it to get a free river card?)
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    Old 02-27-2017, 08:06 PM   #5
    gregz41
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    Re: overpair river decision

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by OutPlayU27 View Post
    I just don´t see to many worse hands that are calling when we bet (even if we choose a small size) besides FD´s, are we bluffing? maybe you can expand what´s the reasoning behind it (is it to get a free river card?)
    When ranges are really narrow like this, your hands become very face up with passive actions. I think if we take the approach of putting all our hands into a small bet on the turn we'll make better decisions on the river rather than splitting it into stuff that bets for value such as sets/66 and then checking back pretty much everything else.

    In fact by taking this line, we almost certainly avoid facing an 11k river lead with 88!
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    Old 02-28-2017, 06:13 AM   #6
    OutPlayU27
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    Re: overpair river decision

    Quote:
    Originally Posted by gregz41 View Post
    When ranges are really narrow like this, your hands become very face up with passive actions. I think if we take the approach of putting all our hands into a small bet on the turn we'll make better decisions on the river rather than splitting it into stuff that bets for value such as sets/66 and then checking back pretty much everything else.

    In fact by taking this line, we almost certainly avoid facing an 11k river lead with 88!
    Ok makes sense
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    Old 03-10-2017, 04:57 AM   #7
    astour194
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    Re: overpair river decision

    Put yourself in his spot.He bets 4way on 457 with two clubs.He could get tons of check raises on this flop.But the fact that he bets here shows that he either has clubs or overpair.So here he has Akc Aqc Kqc minimum from draws.And he has all the overpairs 99s through AAs and the sets of course 44s 55s 77s.When the 3 comes on the turn he checks .If u bet here i dont think that you make all the above hands i mentioned to fold cause you called from co and the only 6 you can have is pckt 66s or 67s .When you checkback the turn im pretty sure that he knows that u dont have a 6 in your hand cause you would barrel to get value from sets or the big draws.On this river 4d he bets 11k and with that bet we need to be correct 66% percent of the time to call.Pocket 55s is rare 77s also but he could have those I think that here we have a clear overpair like 10s ++ we realise our equity on the turn and when he bets that river i dont think that we win 66% of the time to break even. Clear cut fold VERY GOOD LAYDOWN!
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    Old 03-14-2017, 12:39 PM   #8
    scheier
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    Re: overpair river decision

    First time reading this thread and I must say, I am stuck! I can't make up my mind!

    So villain bets the flop into 3 more players. This indicates quite some strength I guess.
    88+, sets (44, 55, 77), two club overcards, some combo draws (66, 67,...). Given that the BB folded, he may also ponder that this flop misses most ranges, especially if he has something like an ace of club, so he may decide to bet with lesser hands. But this should be relatively marginal I guess.

    Hero calls, which should probably reduce our range to approximately the same hands, only we almost never have KK+ and AcKc, probably also not QQ. And we also don't have the lesser hands in our range.

    On the turn, villain decides to check.
    Does that mean that we should discount sets from his range or not because villain is afraid that we have a 6? Would a made straight decide to check this board?
    I get why most overpairs, club draws and random c-bets would check here.

    We also check.
    This removes all 6 from our range as we probably need protection. What would we do with a set?
    Is our range capped to 87s, 88-JJ?

    On the river, villain bets a substantial amount.
    Does he have that many value combos? Would he bet that big with overpairs? What is he hoping that we are calling with?
    It just seems like we have no strong range here and betting big would be able to get folds from most of the rest.
    So it would be a great opportunity to bluff like that for villain.

    In reality, I don't think that's what's happening, but both ranges are so narrow and villain's turn+river actions seem contradictory that I would probably convince myself that I need to call. It is most probably wrong because villain is probably just value-betting his standard amount with a better hand (and hoping to get called by one of the many stations), but it doesn't seem right.
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    Old 03-14-2017, 01:10 PM   #9
    WorldResident
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    Re: overpair river decision

    I agree with Astour194 here. Think about the combinations he can have. 99 through AA gives him 6x6=36 combinations + sets 4x3= 12 combinations. So 48 combinations where you are beaten and 3 where you win (AKcc, AQcc and KQcc). I don't think it is impossible for him to have some A6cc or A7s so in the most preferable situation that will add 5 combos. So 48 vs 8 combos. You made a great fold
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    Old 03-14-2017, 08:18 PM   #10
    harry02
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    Re: overpair river decision

    I believe the villain is most likely holding an overpair/set:

    betting 4800(~65% of pot) on flop with 3 people to act behind
    dosen't seems like he is on drawing hands, more like made hand which can be beaten going further street.
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