Payouts in the pic. Blinds 400k/800k 14 left average 32M, we open UTG 7 handed with AhAc to 1.8M BB defends (villainbarely covers us), flop 5h4c2h we cbet 2M BB calls, turn Qs we barrel 4M BB defends, river 8d and villain has been very stationny over the past 2 days against other players (always made correct calls though) we bet 6.5M and villain check/shoves 16.5M effective (he barely covers us). We can call it off getting sick odds or keep playing a super soft tourney with ~12bb.

Hero????

so river we can:

a) b/c
b) b/f
c) x behind

turn and river should more or less be bricks so I think option (a) should be our best move here

Don't know stack sizes or anything but you should probably check one of the streets if not two.

We have around a pot sized bet left on the river. I went for this sizing to get heroed but it was likely a mistake.

OP says BB's stack barely covers hero, so I'd assume his stack is something slightly larger than 40BB.

I can get behind checking turn as there aren't that many river cards I'm scared of, even hearts as we have the nut flush blocker. I'd be a little more comfortable calling a c/r on the river if we'd checked back turn than when our opponent c/c two streets.

I think bet/folding river is fine. AA is probably one of the weakest hands we should be betting for value here, as we may want to check back hands like KQ. (I can also see checking back river with AA being reasonable as well.) When our opponent c/r river after calling two streets, we have to assume that there are no value hands we're beating. And we have the Ah, which is the exact card we want our opponent to have here, so we're blocking the most obvious bluff.

Short answer - we're only getting two streets of value here.

IMO you should be cashing in your showdown value here by checking back the river. As played all you have is a bluff-catcher, against a villain without a lot of bluffs in his range.

yea the more I look at this hand the more the river looks like a check behind.

Can't really see what worse holdings are calling x3 streets.

b/b/x line proly seems best

Results:

wow thats epic with the showski

I think

x>b/c>b/f

those payouts look decent too I hope you were not too tilted

Checking turn is obviously horrible. Bet, bet, bet/fold seems fine. Bet/call river if you think he's capable.

Always thought we should check back bunch of Ax otf vs bb bc of RIO (if bb defend reasonable range) when we are deep.
Solver actually doesnt approve that esp when we open utg if I remember correctly.
Still think checking back flop w AA is ok occasionally.
As played checking river seems bad when the board hasnt changed.
Bb is fos with his his c/r but yeah you never know esp if you think he's stationy.

I think I check back the river some % of the time and bet some %.

Why such an awkward river bet size? With a PSB left and a stationy V, I'd ship it if I didn't check the river. Don't see b/f as a very viable option due to sizing constraints.

As I look at this hand more, when our opponent goes check-call on the flop and turn, what does his range look like? How many 33/44/55/A3/43 hands are check-calling rather than raising somewhere before the river? I guess our opponent could have exactly QQ, 76 or 88, but that's really not that many combos and does 76 even check-call two streets? Even stationy villains are going to bet nut hands some percentage of the time, right?

The question then is whether we can go three streets with AA. We can have all of the sets, we can have A3, so do we need to triple barrel with AA/KK and if so, what are we hoping to get called by? Maybe some random Qdxx type hands that peeled flop and turned equity, maybe hands like JJ or TT that are hoping to pick off bluffs.

The idea of value betting this river, even vs. a station, seems thin, so if we are value betting it has to be with the idea of folding to a shove as it's probably one of the worst hands we should be value betting. So I'd probably bet even smaller, like 5M, with the idea that we're folding to a shove, although that's a really exploitable line. But anytime my value bet is really thin, I don't mind just checking behind.

there is also the possibility of betting 3,5/4M on river. If we are going with the option B/C. This way we either give V the option to blow us of the hand by essentially turning our hand face up. By betting this amount we cant fold to shoves.

Based on my math you both had ~24mln ~ 30BB to start te hand.
I think he is (should):

- x/shove all his FD otf or fold the bad ones pre
- x/shove all his sets (probably none, since he could shove/fold 55/44/22 pre)
- x/shove 67s ott unless on the very rare case he x/c 6h7h
- x/f 88 ott

So basically imo he has zero combos to x/shove for value otr that he x/c twice.

Easy call

lol cb, u nits? srsly? size better flop and turn, so you can shove yourself river without overpotting, if he had slowplayed anything, nh, but i dunno if villain shouldn´t have c/shove turn already

we also have Ah which is good as villain can herocall us more likely

Agree w/ this.
Vs station V i will happilly jamm river (i will also have a ton of bluffs/nonSDV and will put a lot of pressure on him givin stage of tournament)
As played is obv a really tough call, sick play by him

You have tons of bluffs and nonSDV hands vs a calling station.. lol

this is extremely ro thinking imo. So you are saying in a live game in the moment you know exactly the right bet sizing so that if v x/c x2 streets it will set up a potsize jam otr. How about if hes x/r you or calling only one/two streets.

Your sizing otf should be consistent and reflective of your range not your actual hand, just cb your usual amount weather you are at the top or bottom of your range. ie: bet the same here with AA here as you would with KQ. If you start varying your sizing depending on wether your value betting or bluffing attentive opponents will pick up on it and tear you apart especially at this late stage

I would cbet/bet Turn/jam River here besides AA/KK any Qx, too on this particular board texture. And probably some Ax/Kx without heart and no showdown value. I cb pairs like 66-JJ after betting Flop and Turn and give up some random suited connectors.

Yes of course you should think about what to do on later streets. I think that it should be common knowledge for 30bbs how to size so you can jam without overpotting River. It is not like we are playing 100bbs deep. We are also late into the tournament, where we want to put any V in tough spots.

If he is c/r Flop I puke, because we have the Ah, but I still get it in. If he is c/r Turn, we are likely to be beat and we fold. And if he folds on any street, well, we get the pot?

And about balancing, you shouldn´t take too much into it. Especially live, where hands are not tracked, it doesn´t make a big difference to bet 2M or 2.2M.

Sometimes , I can't help myself so yeah
Seriously, giving stage of tournament, payouts etc we should put a lot of pressure.


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haha

gross but I kinda like a fold based on your reads