Quote:
Originally Posted by Dtrain555
So would 88+, ATs+, AJo+ seem like a reasonable range to iso?
And what should utg+2 call with?
Here is the way I would analyze this away from the table:
Your pot odds = 2.2:1
Break even equity = 31.3%
In MTTs, you do not want to call off with break even equity. You always want an edge for a couple reasons: 1) even in early MTTs there is at least small ICM pressure, even if it is only about 5%; 2) Survival has some value in MTTs; and 3) Skill edge has some value in MTTs.
Quite often, players will over-estimate the survival and skill edges in MTTs and pass up clearly great spots for fear of busting. Jonathan Little, from whom I received most of my coaching, uses 3% - 5% additional equity and Alex "Assasinato" Fitzgerald uses a straight 5% additional equity. While their numbers are different, their methods are very similar, so I use them in combination.
In the middle stages, I tend to use 4% additional equity until we start reaching the early bubble stages, when I go up to 5%. In late bubble I attempt to estimate the ICM instead.
But here my call off equity = 35%.
Next I compare at least 3 ranges: 1) the worst case scenario; a best case scenario; and a middle case.
Here I think the worst case is premiums only: JJ+ and AK. The best case is about 10% of hands. And the middle case will be around 6% of hands.
Of course some villains may be outside the best or worst case, but I would suspect about 90% of the player pool to be within these ranges.
Best case equity: 59%
Worst case equity: 43%
Middle case equity: 52%
So the continue is easy. Whether we call or shove is now the question.
Assuming the UTG+2 range, he may have 20% - 30% of range here. If he calls off with the worst case hands above, he will be folding about 90% of the time. So only 10% of the time are you against that range.
The other ranges, you don't care if he calls off with those as you would be dominating hands in the range which would offset the times you are in a PP versus AK.
However, just calling allows him to stick around with a ton of hands that have equity against you that would prefer he folds. Hands like JTs, 33, and 75s. If you can make him fold away "equity" you win that equity.
Additionally, if he has a premium hand he may shove himself, but you couldn't fold to his shove as you would be getting 43% against his tightest shoving range.
So shoving is clearly right, and I would suspect that shoving would probably be right with almost your whole range that you want to call.
Last edited by jjpregler; 03-17-2019 at 11:36 AM.