I tried finding a threat on this topic but couldn't really see anything particularly helpful/recent. My question is, what ROI might a strong player (let's say for example, one of the top three players in the field on average) expect to have in low-stakes, high-rake live MTTs?

Using a sample schedule from Foxwoods: http://www.foxwoods.com/uploadedFile...lySchedule.pdf

I'd estimate you can play about $2,000 worth of buy ins per week, but I'm not sure how accurate that is. You'd get in $1,960 by playing the big 11AM and 6PM tourneys every day, and if you want a day or two off you could play some of the other events. So 2k is probably a conservative estimate. Most of these events also have rebuys, but I'm not sure how to factor that in to calculations.

So obviously a 50% ROI here could make you $1k per week, a pretty nice living. Even a 25% ROI would be quite sustainable while grinding/building bankroll for higher stakes. I know the fast structure and low hands/hr. cut into our edge, but our understanding of ICM (of which our opponents will have next to none) will make some of this edge back. Side note: do taxes come into play here? I think it's only cashes over 5k that are taxed, which probably only comes into play if you outright win the Saturday Deepstack, but I'm not sure.

All in all, what would be a reasonable ROI expectation for playing about 15 live, low-stakes tournaments a week for a total of about $2k buyins?

Daily tournament structures are BRUTAL !! 15/20 minute levels, fast structures. I often notice getting the button LESS than one time per level due to slow deal, lack of auto shuffle, and players tanking every other hand.

You end up flipping a coin way to early in these things. I would adjust your ROI expectations accordingly.

And don't underestimate your competition. They are better (and more knowledgeable) than you might be giving them credit for.

Very good point about underestimating competition. Most of those fields will have at least a handful of good players, and plenty other weak/tight or old school overly-TAG players that are hard to get chips from.

Everything I read seems to say that playing live MTTs year round is not a feasible source of long-term income, but I am curious what people speculate the numbers to look like.

I think 100% is attainable over the long term (several years) for the very good players.

Depends on so many factors.

I have a ROI well over 50% in live tournaments and had a ROI over 30% with full tilt before Black Friday as a hobby. dauntlessone

BUT

This ROI for live is over a small sample less than 300 tournaments. I am very selective in tournaments I enter. I work so only play in the higher profitability tournaments on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. The weekday tournaments typically have a lower ROI. If your planning on grinding tournaments for a living, you would need to play in those tournaments and you better have more than a 20% edge because if not your probably treading water against the rake.

Tournaments are also extremely high variance. Your profit comes from finishing 1st to 3rd in bigger tournaments and you can go a long time without one of those.

Good luck.

Your realistic expectation is to go insane.